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MOIK vs Difai Ağsu Result & Analysis

Date: 21/05/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 4-0
MOIK
MOIK
Vs
46%
28%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives MOIK a 46% win probability against Difai Ağsu in the Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta on 2026-05-21, with 28% for the draw and 26% for Difai Ağsu. The model estimates around 2.6 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (26%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.4%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (75%), Under 3.5 (73%).

Results analysis

MOIK finished 4-0 against Difai Ağsu (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 46% home win, 28% draw and 26% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (75%). Missed: Under 3.5 (73%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

MOIK win✓ Hit
45.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu win✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W11D22D21W13L21W03L01L11D13LH·DIF06/03A·ŞAH12/03A·SƏB18/03H·CƏB02/04A·BAK08/04H·ZAQ15/04A·SAF22/04H·ŞAH29/04A·ŞIM06/05A·MIN15/05
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.471.151.230.941.65
vs Stronger (3)0.333.000.002.000.503.50
vs Similar (8)0.501.120.331.000.601.20
vs Weaker (19)1.371.371.561.221.201.50
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L13L11D01L03L12L04L11D00D10WA·MOI06/03H·BAK12/03H·CƏB19/03A·ZAQ02/04H·ŞAH09/04A·MIN16/04H·SƏB23/04A·BAK30/04H·SAF06/05A·ŞIM14/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.102.171.192.441.001.86
vs Stronger (13)0.922.460.713.001.171.83
vs Similar (3)2.670.673.001.002.500.50
vs Weaker (14)0.932.211.382.120.332.33
Clean sheet %7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%017%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.9%
Under 2.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 3.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.5%
No
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
8.4%
2-0
8.4%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
5.1%
MOIK goals ↓
Difai Ağsu goals →
01234
08.4%6.8%4.4%1.6%0.5%
19.8%13%6.7%2.5%0.7%
28.4%9.3%5.1%1.9%0.5%
34.2%4.7%2.6%1.0%0.3%
41.6%1.8%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MOIK goals (down), columns = Difai Ağsu goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Safa Baku
2.11
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Difai Ağsu
0.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.00
MOIK is 0.56 points better than Difai Ağsu in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 0.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Mingəçevir
2.04
Safa Baku
1.93
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Difai Ağsu
1.04
Zaqatala
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Şimal
0.89
MOIK is 0.19 goals better than Difai Ağsu in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.04).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Safa Baku
0.78
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Difai Ağsu
2.22
MOIK is 0.74 goals better than Difai Ağsu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 2.22).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.0%-------✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (25)
€4m
SƏB (30)
€0m
MIN (20)
€0m
ZAQ (23)
€0m
CƏB (23)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

MOIK vs Difai Ağsu · H/A from MOI
DateH/AGameScore
06/03/26HMOI Vs Difai Ağsu2-1
27/11/25ADifai Ağsu Vs MOI1-2
27/03/25HMOI Vs Difai Ağsu1-3
24/12/24ADifai Ağsu Vs MOI0-1
25/09/24HMOI Vs Difai Ağsu2-2
15/05/24ADifai Ağsu Vs MOI1-1
14/03/24HMOI Vs Difai Ağsu3-1
14/09/23ADifai Ağsu Vs MOI0-3

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/26AMingəçevir Vs MOI3-1
06/05/26AŞimal Vs MOI1-1
29/04/26HMOI Vs Şahdağ0-1
22/04/26ASafa Baku Vs MOI3-0
15/04/26HMOI Vs Zaqatala2-1
08/04/26ABaku Sportinq Vs MOI3-1
02/04/26HMOI Vs Cəbrayıl2-1
18/03/26ASəbail Vs MOI2-2
12/03/26AŞahdağ Vs MOI1-1
06/03/26HMOI Vs Difai Ağsu2-1

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/05/26AŞimal Vs DA0-1
06/05/26HDA Vs Safa Baku0-0
30/04/26ABaku Sportinq Vs DA1-1
23/04/26HDA Vs Səbail0-4
16/04/26AMingəçevir Vs DA2-1
09/04/26HDA Vs Şahdağ0-3
02/04/26AZaqatala Vs DA1-0
19/03/26HDA Vs Cəbrayıl1-1
12/03/26HDA Vs Baku Sportinq1-3
06/03/26AMOIK Vs DA2-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

MOIK
MOIK
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL1.16
HomeWWWWL1.54
AwayDLLDL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%46%19%
AVG goals2.642.832.46
Over 1.5 %72%75%69%
Over 2.5 %56%62%50%
Over 3.5 %30%33%27%
Scored1.061.380.77
Conceded1.581.461.69
BTTS52%58%46%
Clean Sheet18%21%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDW0.86
HomeLDLLD0.80
AwayLLLDW0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%20%24%
AVG goals3.263.523.00
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %64%68%60%
Over 3.5 %42%44%40%
Scored1.241.281.20
Conceded2.022.241.80
BTTS62%72%52%
Clean Sheet10%8%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Safa BakuSafa Baku2757
59%
2.1
5221+31
2.7
74%
48%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.90.8
-
2MingəçevirMingəçevir2751
56%
1.9
5527+28
3.0
85%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
3SəbailSəbail2750
52%
1.9
4621+25
2.5
59%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
4Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2749
48%
1.8
4023+17
2.3
70%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.9
-
5ŞahdağŞahdağ2743
44%
1.6
3627+9
2.3
63%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
6MOIKMOIK2733
33%
1.2
3340-7
2.7
81%
56%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
30%
1.0
2744-17
2.6
59%
52%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2724
26%
0.9
4056-16
3.6
81%
67%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
9ŞimalŞimal2823
21%
0.8
2562-37
3.1
71%
54%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
10Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2718
15%
0.7
2860-32
3.3
89%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
11Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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