The model favours an away win, with a 43% chance for Karvan, a 30% draw, and a 27% home win for MOIK. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.2% probability. MOIK, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.33 goals scored and concedes 1.0. Karvan, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.29 conceded against comparable teams.
The model’s selections include a near-certain Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 5.5 (96.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (92.1%), Under 4.5 (91.4%), and an Away +2 handicap (89.8%). Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are presented.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
MOIK win
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karvan win
43.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
MOIK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.57
1.29
1.00
1.06
2.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
1.87
0.33
1.00
0.78
2.44
vs Weaker (15)
1.73
1.27
2.00
1.00
1.43
1.57
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karvan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.97
0.87
1.80
0.67
2.13
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
2.47
0.57
2.00
0.38
2.88
vs Similar (15)
1.07
1.47
1.12
1.62
1.00
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.7%
Under 1.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.0%
Under 2.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.5%
Under 3.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-1
11.7%
0-0
11.1%
0-2
8.7%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
6.4%
2-0
4.8%
MOIK goals ↓
Karvan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
12%
8.7%
3.8%
1.3%
1
8.4%
14%
8.6%
3.8%
1.3%
2
4.8%
6.4%
4.3%
1.9%
0.6%
3
1.6%
2.1%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MOIK goals (down), columns = Karvan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
MOIK is 1.25 points worse than Karvan in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 2.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
MOIK is 1.46 goals worse than Karvan in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 2.69).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
MOIK is 0.74 goals worse than Karvan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
MOIK or Draw
56.9%
Avg Implied -
27%
30%
43%
covers MOIK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MOIK or Karvan
69.7%
Avg Implied -
27%
30%
43%
covers MOIK + Karvan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Karvan
73.4%
Avg Implied -
27%
30%
43%
covers Draw + Karvan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
MOIK over/under 0.5
Over
62.9%
Under
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5
Over
26.2%
Under
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5
Over
73.6%
Under
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5
Over
38.4%
Under
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to MOIK, so a minus line means MOIK give that many goals of a start and Karvan receive them. At -1, MOIK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal MOIK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (MOIK)
MOIK -2
2.8%
Draw -2
7.3%
Karvan +2
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (MOIK)
MOIK -1
10.2%
Draw -1
16.4%
Karvan +1
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (MOIK)
MOIK +1
56.9%
Draw +1
22.5%
Karvan -1
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (MOIK)
MOIK +2
79.3%
Draw +2
13.2%
Karvan -2
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
MOIK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.64
0.36
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.27
0.60
0.17
0.17
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.80
1.00
0.50
0.43
1.14
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karvan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.47
0.47
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.00
0.43
0.57
0.12
1.38
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.53
0.50
0.38
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MOIK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
MOIK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.64
0.64
0.69
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.33
1.27
0.17
0.83
0.44
1.56
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.47
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karvan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.20
0.40
1.33
0.27
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.20
1.47
0.14
1.43
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.93
0.62
1.25
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MOIK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Şahdağ
Səbail
Xankəndi FK
Mingəçevir
Şimal
Zaqatala
Cəbrayıl
Baku Sportinq