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MOIK vs Mingəçevir Prediction & Stats

Date: 08/10/2026
Time: 14:00
MOIK
MOIK
Vs
56%
25%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

MOIK are tipped to win in a high-scoring affair, with the model picking a home victory. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, yet the single most likely total is two, and the most probable exact score is 1-1, a 10.5% chance. MOIK’s home form shows they average 1.89 goals scored and 1.22 conceded against weaker opposition, while Mingəçevir, playing away against stronger teams, averages 1.25 goals for and 1.25 against. The home win probability stands at 61%, the draw at 22%, and the away win at 17%. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 6.5 (96.2%), Home +2 handicap (93.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.7%), Under 5.5 (90.6%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.5%), and Home under 3.5 goals (84.2%). The model’s picks highlight a dominant home advantage and a likely moderate goal tally.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

MOIK win
56.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir win
19.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D21W13L21W03L01L11D13L40W01LA·SƏB18/03H·CƏB02/04A·BAK08/04H·ZAQ15/04A·SAF22/04H·ŞAH29/04A·ŞIM06/05A·MIN15/05H·DIF21/05H·ŞAH03/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.571.291.001.062.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.601.870.331.000.782.44
vs Weaker (15)1.731.272.001.001.431.57
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-711D52W30W21W12L71W02L31W41W02LA·BAK18/03H·SAF03/04A·ŞIM09/04H·DIF16/04A·CƏB22/04H·ZAQ29/04A·ŞAH05/05H·MOI15/05H·SƏB22/05A·QAB28/05← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.172.401.001.471.33
vs Stronger (24)1.751.212.251.171.251.25
vs Similar (3)3.331.003.500.503.002.00
vs Weaker (3)2.001.002.000.002.001.50
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.7%
Under 3.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.7%
1-0
9.4%
0-0
6.7%
3-1
6.2%
3-0
6.0%
1-2
5.4%
MOIK goals ↓
Mingəçevir goals →
01234
06.7%4.6%2.9%1.0%0.3%
19.4%12%5.4%1.8%0.5%
29.7%9.9%5.0%1.7%0.4%
36.0%6.2%3.1%1.1%0.3%
42.8%2.9%1.5%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MOIK goals (down), columns = Mingəçevir goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
MOIK is 0.67 points worse than Mingəçevir in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.89).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
MOIK is 0.81 goals worse than Mingəçevir in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 2.04).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
MOIK is 0.48 goals worse than Mingəçevir in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
MOIK or Draw
80.7%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers MOIK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MOIK or Mingəçevir
75.4%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers MOIK + Mingəçevir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mingəçevir
43.9%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Draw + Mingəçevir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
MOIK over/under 0.5
Over
84.5%
Under
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5
Over
55.6%
Under
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5
Over
28.7%
Under
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 3.5
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5
Over
63.9%
Under
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5
Over
27.1%
Under
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to MOIK, so a minus line means MOIK give that many goals of a start and Mingəçevir receive them. At -1, MOIK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal MOIK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (MOIK)
MOIK -2
15.6%
Draw -2
17.5%
Mingəçevir +2
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (MOIK)
MOIK -1
33.2%
Draw -1
23.0%
Mingəçevir +1
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (MOIK)
MOIK +1
80.7%
Draw +1
12.1%
Mingəçevir -1
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (MOIK)
MOIK +2
92.8%
Draw +2
5.2%
Mingəçevir -2
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MOIKMOIK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D02L21W00D00D01L03L20W01LA·SƏB18/03H·CƏB02/04A·BAK08/04H·ZAQ15/04A·SAF22/04H·ŞAH29/04A·ŞIM06/05A·MIN15/05H·DIF21/05H·ŞAH03/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.700.640.360.381.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.270.600.170.170.330.89
vs Weaker (15)0.730.801.000.500.431.14
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W00D10W02L20W01L30W21W02LA·BAK18/03H·SAF03/04A·ŞIM09/04H·DIF16/04A·CƏB22/04H·ZAQ29/04A·ŞAH05/05H·MOI15/05H·SƏB22/05A·QAB28/05← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.671.070.400.530.93
vs Stronger (24)0.710.621.080.500.330.75
vs Similar (3)1.330.671.000.002.002.00
vs Weaker (3)1.001.001.000.001.001.50
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MOIK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MOIKMOIK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L10W11D00D03L01L10W10W20W00DA·SƏB18/03H·CƏB02/04A·BAK08/04H·ZAQ15/04A·SAF22/04H·ŞAH29/04A·ŞIM06/05A·MIN15/05H·DIF21/05H·ŞAH03/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.870.640.640.691.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.331.270.170.830.441.56
vs Weaker (15)1.000.471.000.501.000.43
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D42W30W11D10W51W01L01L20W00DA·BAK18/03H·SAF03/04A·ŞIM09/04H·DIF16/04A·CƏB22/04H·ZAQ29/04A·ŞAH05/05H·MOI15/05H·SƏB22/05A·QAB28/05← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.501.330.600.930.40
vs Stronger (24)1.040.581.170.670.920.50
vs Similar (3)2.000.332.500.501.000.00
vs Weaker (3)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MOIK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.0%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.0%-------
Under 6.597.2%-------
Home +2 handicap92.8%-------
Under 5.592.7%-------
Away under 2.5 goals91.6%-------
Home under 3.5 goals88.1%-------
Home over 0.5 goals84.5%-------
Under 4.583.4%-------
Home or Draw80.7%-------
Home +1 handicap80.7%-------
Over 1.579.4%-------
Home or Away75.4%-------
Away under 1.5 goals72.9%-------
Home under 2.5 goals71.3%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
MOI wins
0
Draws
6
MIN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

MOIK vs Mingəçevir · H/A from MOI
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/26AMingəçevir Vs MOI3-1
25/02/26AMingəçevir Vs MOI2-0
20/11/25HMOI Vs Mingəçevir0-3
16/05/25HMOI Vs Mingəçevir1-3
14/03/25AMingəçevir Vs MOI1-0
13/09/24HMOI Vs Mingəçevir1-2
17/04/24HMOI Vs Mingəçevir3-1
14/02/24AMingəçevir Vs MOI0-1

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26HMOI Vs Şahdağ0-1
21/05/26HMOI Vs Difai Ağsu4-0
15/05/26AMingəçevir Vs MOI3-1
06/05/26AŞimal Vs MOI1-1
29/04/26HMOI Vs Şahdağ0-1
22/04/26ASafa Baku Vs MOI3-0
15/04/26HMOI Vs Zaqatala2-1
08/04/26ABaku Sportinq Vs MOI3-1
02/04/26HMOI Vs Cəbrayıl2-1
18/03/26ASəbail Vs MOI2-2

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/05/26AQabala Vs MIN2-0
22/05/26HMIN Vs Səbail4-1
15/05/26HMIN Vs MOIK3-1
05/05/26AŞahdağ Vs MIN2-0
29/04/26HMIN Vs Zaqatala7-1
22/04/26ACəbrayıl Vs MIN2-1
16/04/26HMIN Vs Difai Ağsu2-1
09/04/26AŞimal Vs MIN0-3
03/04/26HMIN Vs Safa Baku5-2
18/03/26ABaku Sportinq Vs MIN1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

MOIK
MOIK
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWL1.18
HomeWWLWL1.60
AwayDLLDL0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%48%16%
AVG goals2.702.722.68
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %54%60%48%
Over 3.5 %32%32%32%
Scored1.141.400.88
Conceded1.561.321.80
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet18%24%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.64
HomeWWWWW1.92
AwayDWLLL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%54%38%
AVG goals2.802.712.88
Over 1.5 %76%71%81%
Over 2.5 %50%46%54%
Over 3.5 %34%33%35%
Scored1.621.881.38
Conceded1.180.831.50
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet36%42%31%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KarvanKarvan13
100%
3.0
30+3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.00.0
-
2ŞahdağŞahdağ13
100%
3.0
10+1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.0
-
3SəbailSəbail11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.0
-
4Xankəndi FKXankəndi FK11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
5MingəçevirMingəçevir00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
6ŞimalŞimal00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
9MOIKMOIK10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
10Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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