Defensive solidity will dominate this encounter, with both sides averaging over a goal conceded per match against similar opposition. The model sees a 37% chance of a home win, 31% for a draw and 31% for an away win, making a home victory the most likely outcome. The expected total goals sit at 2.2, with the most probable total of two goals at 28%. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 14.6% probability. MOIK, playing at home, averages 0.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar teams, while Şahdağ, on the road, averages 0.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. The suggested selections are: Under 7.5 - 99.8%; Under 6.5 - 99.2%; Home under 2.5 HT goals - 98.5%; Away under 3.5 goals - 97.7%; Away under 2.5 HT goals - 97.4%; Under 5.5 - 97.3% with a 5% edge; Home under 2.5 2H goals - 96.9%; Home under 3.5 goals - 96.8%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as MOIK failed to convert the pre-match favourite into a win, losing 0-1 to Şahdağ. The model had picked a home win with a 37% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score confirmed the away triumph. Every suggested selection was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.8%, Under 6.5 hit at 99.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.7%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.7%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.6%, Under 5.5 hit at 97.3%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.1%, and Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.8%. MOIK’s recent form shows a loss-heavy run, while Şahdağ remains unbeaten in five, underscoring the surprise outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
MOIK win✗ Miss
37.2%
Avg Implied 38.8% · @ 2.31
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.36
Dafabet
2.36
Betano
2.35
Draw✗ Miss
31.4%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.09
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Dafabet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.05
Şahdağ win✓ Hit
31.5%
Avg Implied 32.2% · @ 2.79
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.85
Dafabet
2.85
1xBet
2.83
Betano
2.80
Betfair
2.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
MOIK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.63
1.36
1.14
1.06
2.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
1.93
0.40
1.00
0.78
2.44
vs Weaker (16)
1.69
1.38
1.89
1.22
1.43
1.57
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şahdağ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.10
1.53
1.27
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.91
1.73
0.83
2.17
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (19)
1.42
0.74
2.00
0.67
0.90
0.80
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.0%
@ 1.29-3.7%
Under 1.5
33.0%
@ 3.11+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.32
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Under
Betfair
3.40
1xBet
3.14
Marathonbet
3.14
Pinnacle
3.10
Superbet
3.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.0%
@ 1.98-7.6%
Under 2.5
61.0%
@ 1.72+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Betfair
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.75
Betfair
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Bet365
1.75
Pinnacle
1.72
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.0%
@ 3.38-8.0%
Under 3.5
81.0%
@ 1.25+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Superbet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.28
Under
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.8%
@ 1.74-6.1%
No
53.2%
@ 1.96+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.80
Betfair
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
No
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%@ 5.84+7.6%
0-0
11.9%@ 8.48+7.1%
1-0
11.2%@ 6.92+5.2%
0-1 ✓
9.9%@ 7.94+4.8%
2-1
7.9%@ 8.44+3.0%
2-0
7.4%@ 9.56+3.1%
1-2
7.1%@ 9.36+2.7%
0-2
6.0%@ 12.00+2.6%
MOIK goals ↓
Şahdağ goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.9%
6.0%
2.1%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.1%
2.5%
0.7%
2
7.4%
7.9%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
3
2.9%
3.1%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MOIK goals (down), columns = Şahdağ goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
MOIK is 0.37 points worse than Şahdağ in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
MOIK is 0.11 goals worse than Şahdağ in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
MOIK is 0.48 goals worse than Şahdağ in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
MOIK or Draw✗ Miss
68.5%
Avg Implied 68.1% · @ 1.34
Edge
+0.4%
37%
31%
31%
covers MOIK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
MOIK or Şahdağ✓ Hit
68.6%
Avg Implied 71.1% · @ 1.28
Edge
-2.5%
37%
31%
31%
covers MOIK + Şahdağ
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Draw or Şahdağ✓ Hit
62.8%
Avg Implied 60.8% · @ 1.50
Edge
+2.0%
37%
31%
31%
covers Draw + Şahdağ
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.57
William Hil
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.48
Unibet
1.48
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
MOIK over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
69.3%
@ 1.21-5.3%
Under
30.7%
@ 3.54+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Under
Betfair
3.75
1xBet
3.34
MOIK over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.0%
@ 2.29-7.1%
Under
67.0%
@ 1.54+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.39
Marathonbet
2.32
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.50
MOIK over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 5.50-5.2%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.11+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Under
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.10
MOIK over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.6%
@ 1.31-3.9%
Under
34.4%
@ 2.98+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.00
1xBet
2.97
Şahdağ over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.9%
@ 2.63-5.9%
Under
71.1%
@ 1.40+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.62
Marathonbet
2.57
1xBet
2.57
Under
Marathonbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Betfair
1.40
1xBet
1.36
Şahdağ over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 6.75-4.4%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.07+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Under
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Şahdağ over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to MOIK, so a minus line means MOIK give that many goals of a start and Şahdağ receive them. At -1, MOIK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal MOIK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (MOIK)Actual: Şahdağ
MOIK -2
5.3%
Draw -2
11.0%
Şahdağ +2
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (MOIK)Actual: Şahdağ
MOIK -1
16.3%
@ 4.62-2.8%
Draw -1
20.8%
@ 3.90-1.8%
Şahdağ +1
62.8%
@ 1.51+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Draw
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
3.75
Away
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.46
Handicap +1 (MOIK)Actual: Draw
MOIK +1
68.5%
@ 1.33+3.2%
Draw +1
18.7%
@ 4.40-1.0%
Şahdağ -1
12.8%
@ 5.80-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.33
Draw
Marathonbet
4.40
Away
Marathonbet
5.80
Handicap +2 (MOIK)Actual: MOIK
MOIK +2
87.2%
Draw +2
9.0%
Şahdağ -2
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
MOIK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.64
0.43
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.29
0.57
0.20
0.00
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.88
0.89
0.67
0.43
1.14
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şahdağ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.27
1.00
0.33
1.33
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (19)
0.79
0.47
0.89
0.33
0.70
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.5%
@ 1.39-0.2%
Under 0.5
34.5%
@ 2.65+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Under
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.80
Pinnacle
2.67
Marathonbet
2.60
1xBet
2.60
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.1%
@ 2.82-3.3%
Under 1.5
70.9%
@ 1.35+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.83
Marathonbet
2.83
Pinnacle
2.80
William Hil
2.75
Under
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.0%
@ 7.17-4.0%
Under 2.5
91.0%
@ 1.07+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.00
William Hil
7.00
Under
William Hil
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MOIK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.4%
@ 1.95-10.9%
Under
63.6%
@ 1.75+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.75
MOIK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 7.00-5.3%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.07+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Under
1xBet
1.07
MOIK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.5%
@ 2.20+2.9%
Under
55.5%
@ 1.57-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.57
Şahdağ over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.0%
@ 8.50+3.0%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.05-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.50
Under
1xBet
1.05
Şahdağ over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
MOIK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.71
0.71
0.69
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
1.36
0.20
1.00
0.44
1.56
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.56
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şahdağ
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.87
0.53
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.73
0.50
0.83
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (19)
0.63
0.26
1.11
0.33
0.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
75.2%
@ 1.22-0.5%
Under 0.5
24.8%
@ 3.80+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.22
Under
1xBet
3.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.8%
@ 2.13-1.4%
Under 1.5
58.2%
@ 1.62+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.13
Under
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.4%
Under 2.5
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MOIK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.7%
@ 1.71-7.6%
Under
54.3%
@ 1.95+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.71
Under
1xBet
1.95
MOIK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
54.8%
@ 1.82+4.8%
Under
45.2%
@ 1.82-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.82
Under
1xBet
1.82
Şahdağ over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.3%
1.01
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.2%
1.08
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.0%
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.0%
1.07
William Hil
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.7%
1.07
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.4%
1.11
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.10
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.0%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.0%
1.25
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.2%
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
-
-0.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
71.1%
1.40
Marathonbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Betfair
1.40
1xBet
1.36
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.9%
1.35
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
+3.3%
✓ Hit
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Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →