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MOIK vs Səbail Result & Analysis

Date: 18/02/2026
Time: 10:30
Final 1-0
MOIK
MOIK
Vs
29%
29%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Səbail
Səbail
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

MOIK win✓ Hit
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Səbail win✗ Miss
41.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D26L01L03L21W20W31W02L22D02LH·BAK22/10A·NEF29/10A·SƏB05/11H·MIN20/11A·DIF27/11H·ŞIM10/12A·ZAQ17/12H·SAF25/12A·CƏB05/02A·BAK12/02
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.671.071.600.931.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.672.000.671.830.672.11
vs Weaker (15)1.331.331.331.441.331.17
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SəbailSəbail

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D01L10W00D02L30W22D34L10W00DA·SAF23/10H·ŞAM29/10H·MOI05/11A·BAK21/11H·CƏB27/11H·DIF11/12A·ŞAH18/12H·ŞIM24/12A·ZAQ05/02H·SAF12/02
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.270.941.240.921.31
vs Stronger (13)0.621.540.431.140.832.00
vs Similar (13)1.231.231.431.571.000.83
vs Weaker (4)1.000.501.000.671.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.6%
Under 1.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.6%
Under 2.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.3%
Under 3.5
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.7%
No
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-1
10.0%
0-0
9.5%
1-2
8.8%
1-0 ✓
7.9%
0-2
7.8%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
5.2%
MOIK goals ↓
Səbail goals →
01234
09.5%10%7.8%3.6%1.2%
17.9%14%8.8%4.0%1.4%
25.2%7.1%4.9%2.3%0.8%
31.9%2.7%1.8%0.8%0.3%
40.5%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MOIK goals (down), columns = Səbail goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Safa Baku
2.11
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Difai Ağsu
0.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.00
MOIK is 0.63 points worse than Səbail in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.85).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Mingəçevir
2.04
Safa Baku
1.93
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Difai Ağsu
1.04
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
MOIK is 0.48 goals worse than Səbail in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.70).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Safa Baku
0.78
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Difai Ağsu
2.22
MOIK is 0.70 goals worse than Səbail in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 0.78).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MOIKMOIK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D13L01L01L11D10W10W00D11D00DH·BAK22/10A·NEF29/10A·SƏB05/11H·MIN20/11A·DIF27/11H·ŞIM10/12A·ZAQ17/12H·SAF25/12A·CƏB05/02A·BAK12/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.700.270.670.400.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.330.730.330.500.330.89
vs Weaker (15)0.330.670.220.780.500.50
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SəbailSəbail

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D00D10W00D00D10W12L10W10W00DA·SAF23/10H·ŞAM29/10H·MOI05/11A·BAK21/11H·CƏB27/11H·DIF11/12A·ŞAH18/12H·ŞIM24/12A·ZAQ05/02H·SAF12/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.600.470.410.380.85
vs Stronger (13)0.310.920.140.710.501.17
vs Similar (13)0.540.460.860.290.170.67
vs Weaker (4)0.500.000.330.001.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MOIK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MOIKMOIK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D13L00D02L10W10W21W02L11D02LH·BAK22/10A·NEF29/10A·SƏB05/11H·MIN20/11A·DIF27/11H·ŞIM10/12A·ZAQ17/12H·SAF25/12A·CƏB05/02A·BAK12/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.970.800.930.531.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.331.270.331.330.331.22
vs Weaker (15)1.000.671.110.670.830.67
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SəbailSəbail

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D01L00D00D02L20W10W24L00D00DA·SAF23/10H·ŞAM29/10H·MOI05/11A·BAK21/11H·CƏB27/11H·DIF11/12A·ŞAH18/12H·ŞIM24/12A·ZAQ05/02H·SAF12/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.670.470.820.540.46
vs Stronger (13)0.310.620.290.430.330.83
vs Similar (13)0.690.770.571.290.830.17
vs Weaker (4)0.500.500.670.670.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MOIK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.6%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (5)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (2)
€0m
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (8)
€3m
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
MOI wins
0
Draws
1
SƏB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

MOIK vs Səbail · H/A from MOI
DateH/AGameScore
05/11/25ASəbail Vs MOI1-0

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/02/26ABaku Sportinq Vs MOI2-0
05/02/26ACəbrayıl Vs MOI2-2
25/12/25HMOI Vs Safa Baku0-2
17/12/25AZaqatala Vs MOI1-3
10/12/25HMOI Vs Şimal2-0
27/11/25ADifai Ağsu Vs MOI1-2
20/11/25HMOI Vs Mingəçevir0-3
05/11/25ASəbail Vs MOI1-0
29/10/25ANeftchi Baku Vs MOI6-2
22/10/25HMOI Vs Baku Sportinq0-0

SəbailSəbail

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/02/26HSƏB Vs Safa Baku0-0
05/02/26AZaqatala Vs SƏB0-1
24/12/25HSƏB Vs Şimal3-4
18/12/25AŞahdağ Vs SƏB2-2
11/12/25HSƏB Vs Difai Ağsu3-0
27/11/25HSƏB Vs Cəbrayıl0-2
21/11/25ABaku Sportinq Vs SƏB0-0
05/11/25HSƏB Vs MOIK1-0
29/10/25HSƏB Vs Şamaxı FK0-1
23/10/25ASafa Baku Vs SƏB2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

MOIK
MOIK
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDL1.20
HomeWDLWL1.40
AwayLWWDL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%40%24%
AVG goals2.823.162.48
Over 1.5 %74%84%64%
Over 2.5 %58%72%44%
Over 3.5 %36%48%24%
Scored1.241.520.96
Conceded1.581.641.52
BTTS56%68%44%
Clean Sheet20%16%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Səbail
Səbail
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWD1.00
HomeWLWLD1.00
AwayDDDDW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%27%21%
AVG goals2.322.152.50
Over 1.5 %62%58%67%
Over 2.5 %36%27%46%
Over 3.5 %24%15%33%
Scored0.980.851.12
Conceded1.341.311.38
BTTS36%27%46%
Clean Sheet36%38%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Safa BakuSafa Baku2757
59%
2.1
5221+31
2.7
74%
48%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1031.90.8
-
2MingəçevirMingəçevir2751
56%
1.9
5527+28
3.0
85%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
3SəbailSəbail2750
52%
1.9
4621+25
2.5
59%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.70.8
-
4Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2749
48%
1.8
4023+17
2.3
70%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.9
-
5ŞahdağŞahdağ2743
44%
1.6
3627+9
2.3
63%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
6MOIKMOIK2733
33%
1.2
3340-7
2.7
81%
56%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
30%
1.0
2744-17
2.6
59%
52%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2724
26%
0.9
4056-16
3.6
81%
67%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
9ŞimalŞimal2823
21%
0.8
2562-37
3.1
71%
54%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
10Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2718
15%
0.7
2860-32
3.3
89%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
11Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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