MOIK are tipped to win this Azerbaijan Premier League clash, with a 54% chance of triumph, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 22% chance of a Şimal victory. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11% chance, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest.
MOIK, playing at home against a weaker side, have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Şimal, on the road and facing a stronger opponent, have averaged only 0.57 goals scored and 2.29 conceded. These figures underline the home side’s offensive edge and the away side’s defensive frailties.
The model’s selections include: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%; Under 7.5 at 98.5%; Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.2%; Away under 3.5 goals at 96.7%; Under 6.5 at 95.9%; Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.5%; Away under 1.5 HT goals at 91.8%; Home under 2.5 2H goals at 91.2%. These picks highlight a low-scoring, tightly contested match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
MOIK win
53.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şimal win
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
MOIK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.57
1.29
1.00
1.06
2.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
1.87
0.33
1.00
0.78
2.44
vs Weaker (15)
1.73
1.27
2.00
1.00
1.43
1.57
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şimal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
2.17
0.56
1.50
1.21
2.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
1.53
0.62
0.88
0.57
2.29
vs Similar (6)
1.00
2.50
0.33
1.67
1.67
3.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
3.00
0.60
2.40
2.00
3.75
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.2%
Under 1.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.9%
Under 2.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.5%
Under 3.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.8%
No
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.2%
1-0
7.4%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
3-0
5.3%
MOIK goals ↓
Şimal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
4.1%
3.1%
1.2%
0.4%
1
7.4%
11%
6.0%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.2%
9.8%
5.9%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.3%
6.4%
3.8%
1.5%
0.5%
4
2.6%
3.1%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MOIK goals (down), columns = Şimal goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
MOIK is 0.40 points better than Şimal in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 0.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
MOIK is 0.33 goals better than Şimal in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
MOIK is 0.73 goals better than Şimal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 2.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
MOIK or Draw
77.9%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers MOIK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MOIK or Şimal
76.0%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers MOIK + Şimal
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Şimal
46.1%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers Draw + Şimal
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
MOIK over/under 0.5
Over
85.8%
Under
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5
Over
58.0%
Under
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5
Over
31.0%
Under
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 3.5
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 0.5
Over
69.8%
Under
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5
Over
33.6%
Under
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to MOIK, so a minus line means MOIK give that many goals of a start and Şimal receive them. At -1, MOIK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal MOIK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (MOIK)
MOIK -2
15.4%
Draw -2
16.7%
Şimal +2
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (MOIK)
MOIK -1
32.1%
Draw -1
21.8%
Şimal +1
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (MOIK)
MOIK +1
77.9%
Draw +1
13.0%
Şimal -1
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (MOIK)
MOIK +2
90.9%
Draw +2
6.3%
Şimal -2
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
MOIK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.64
0.36
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.27
0.60
0.17
0.17
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.80
1.00
0.50
0.43
1.14
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şimal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.87
0.31
0.50
0.29
1.29
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
0.60
0.38
0.25
0.14
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.17
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
1.22
0.20
0.80
0.75
1.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.1%
Under 0.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.9%
Under 1.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.9%
Under 2.5
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MOIK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.6%
Under
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.1%
Under
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
MOIK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.64
0.64
0.69
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.33
1.27
0.17
0.83
0.44
1.56
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.47
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şimal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.30
0.25
1.00
0.93
1.64
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.93
0.25
0.62
0.43
1.29
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
1.78
0.40
1.60
1.25
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.8%
Under 0.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.0%
Under 1.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.4%
Under 2.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MOIK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
63.2%
Under
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.9%
Under
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şimal over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
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Karvan
Şahdağ
Səbail
Xankəndi FK
Mingəçevir
Zaqatala
Cəbrayıl
Baku Sportinq