Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 will look to break a four-game winning streak at home, while Ostrovets FC, fresh from a 2-game run, are tipped to lift the tie. The model favours an away win, with a 45% chance for Ostrovets, 33% for Molodechno and 22% for a draw. Expect a high-scoring affair, averaging four goals, and the most likely total is 6 + with a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 7.9% chance. Molodechno typically scores 1.25 and concedes 2.25 against similar opposition, whereas Ostrovets averages 1.75 goals scored and 2.5 conceded on the road. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 at 91.8%, Over 2.5 at 76.8% and BTTS Yes at 75.6%. The predicted outcome is an away win for Ostrovets FC.
Results analysis
The match ended in a 0-0 draw, a shock that left the pre-match favourite, Ostrovets FC, unable to secure the win the model had predicted. The model had called an away win with a 45% probability, but the result proved wrong. Molodechno-DYuSSh 4, on a four-game winning streak, kept the visitors at bay, while Ostrovets, riding a two-game winning run, failed to find the net. The model’s other selections all missed: Over 1.5 goals at 91.8% fell short, as did Over 2.5 at 76.8% and BTTS Yes at 75.6%. The final score of 0-0 confirmed a quiet, defensive affair.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win✗ Miss
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC win✗ Miss
44.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.50
1.33
2.33
1.33
2.67
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
1.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.25
2.38
1.25
2.25
1.25
2.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
2.33
2.00
1.00
1.50
3.00
Clean sheet %
8% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ostrovets FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.42
1.58
2.83
0.67
2.00
2.50
vs Stronger (2)
2.50
2.50
-
-
2.50
2.50
vs Similar (8)
2.25
1.62
2.75
0.75
1.75
2.50
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.50
3.00
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
91.8%
Under 1.5
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
76.8%
Under 2.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.4%
Under 3.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
75.6%
No
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
7.9%
1-2
7.8%
2-2
7.2%
2-1
6.7%
1-3
5.6%
2-3
5.2%
3-2
4.5%
0-2
4.2%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 goals ↓
Ostrovets FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.5%
3.1%
4.2%
3.0%
1.6%
1
2.6%
7.9%
7.8%
5.6%
3.1%
2
3.1%
6.7%
7.2%
5.2%
2.9%
3
1.9%
4.2%
4.5%
3.3%
1.8%
4
0.9%
1.9%
2.1%
1.5%
0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 goals (down), columns = Ostrovets FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Naftan
2.21
Smorgon
2.17
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.88
ML Vitebsk
1.71
Ostrovets FC
1.67
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Volna
1.50
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.21
Orsha
1.12
Lida
1.08
Slonim
0.75
Osipovichy
0.54
Baranovichi
0.50
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 is 0.46 points worse than Ostrovets FC in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.88
Naftan
2.29
Smorgon
1.92
ML Vitebsk
1.88
Volna
1.83
Ostrovets FC
1.75
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Lida
1.46
Orsha
1.38
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.25
Baranovichi
1.04
Slonim
1.00
Osipovichy
0.88
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 is 0.50 goals worse than Ostrovets FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Naftan
0.79
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.83
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Smorgon
1.12
ML Vitebsk
1.42
Ostrovets FC
1.42
Volna
1.46
Lida
1.79
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.88
Orsha
2.17
Slonim
2.21
Osipovichy
2.21
Baranovichi
2.88
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 is 0.46 goals worse than Ostrovets FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.42
0.83
0.33
0.83
0.50
0.83
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.50
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ostrovets FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.75
1.17
0.33
0.17
1.17
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
-
-
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.62
1.25
0.50
0.00
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
58% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.92
1.67
1.00
1.50
0.83
1.83
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
1.88
1.00
2.00
0.75
1.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ostrovets FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.75
0.83
1.67
0.33
1.83
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
vs Similar (8)
1.62
1.00
1.50
0.25
1.75
1.75
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 and Ostrovets FC have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
BAR (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 and Ostrovets FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
NAF (9)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 and Ostrovets FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
BAR (9)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 and Ostrovets FC have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Naftan
Smorgon
Shakhtyor Petrikov
ML Vitebsk
Lokomotiv Gomel
Volna
Orsha
Lida
Slonim
Osipovichy
Baranovichi