This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.33
2.07
1.07
1.69
1.56
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (9)
1.44
1.22
1.67
1.33
1.33
1.17
vs Weaker (19)
2.16
1.21
2.20
1.00
2.11
1.44
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.8%
Under 1.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.8%
@ 1.90+11.8%
Under 2.5
38.2%
@ 1.90-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.5%
Under 3.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.0%
No
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.4%
2-2
6.5%
0-2
6.4%
0-1
6.2%
1-3
5.4%
0-0
5.2%
Monaco goals ↓
Lyon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
6.2%
6.4%
3.8%
1.7%
1
4.8%
11%
9.1%
5.4%
2.4%
2
4.2%
7.4%
6.5%
3.8%
1.7%
3
2.0%
3.5%
3.1%
1.8%
0.8%
4
0.7%
1.3%
1.1%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Monaco goals (down), columns = Lyon goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.52
Marseille
2.00
Rennes
1.79
Lille
1.75
Nice
1.46
Reims
1.46
Lyon
1.43
Montpellier
1.43
Monaco
1.43
Strasbourg
1.41
Angers
1.39
Nantes
1.32
Bordeaux
1.32
Stade Brestois 29
1.21
Metz
1.21
Saint Etienne
1.07
Dijon
1.07
Nimes
0.96
Amiens
0.82
Toulouse
0.46
Monaco and Lyon are level in average points per game (both 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.78
Monaco
1.57
Lyon
1.50
Nice
1.46
Marseille
1.46
Bordeaux
1.43
Rennes
1.36
Lille
1.25
Montpellier
1.25
Stade Brestois 29
1.21
Strasbourg
1.19
Amiens
1.11
Saint Etienne
1.04
Nimes
1.04
Nantes
1.00
Angers
1.00
Dijon
0.96
Metz
0.96
Reims
0.93
Toulouse
0.79
Monaco is 0.07 goals better than Lyon in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Reims
0.75
Rennes
0.86
Paris Saint Germain
0.89
Lille
0.96
Lyon
0.96
Marseille
1.04
Nantes
1.11
Angers
1.18
Strasbourg
1.19
Bordeaux
1.21
Montpellier
1.21
Metz
1.25
Stade Brestois 29
1.32
Dijon
1.32
Nice
1.36
Nimes
1.57
Monaco
1.57
Saint Etienne
1.61
Amiens
1.79
Toulouse
2.07
Monaco is 0.61 goals worse than Lyon in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 0.96).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Monaco
For 7.5 · Against 4.0 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 14.5 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lyon
For 5.8 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 12.3 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Monaco
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.2
9.3
4.1
4.1
4.1
27.5
27.1
27.9
vs Stronger (3)
9.3
15.0
6.5
1.7
0.0
2.5
21.0
25.0
19.0
vs Similar (15)
8.9
8.6
9.1
3.9
4.0
3.8
27.4
27.1
27.6
vs Weaker (32)
10.2
10.7
9.8
4.5
4.4
4.5
28.2
27.2
29.2
% over line
48%
62%
35%
60%
54%
65%
96%
100%
92%
% under line
52%
38%
65%
40%
46%
35%
4%
0%
8%
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
11.2
9.1
3.6
2.9
4.4
24.6
23.1
26.2
vs Stronger (2)
13.0
14.0
12.0
5.5
3.0
8.0
24.5
22.0
27.0
vs Similar (15)
9.5
10.4
8.8
3.8
3.1
4.4
27.5
24.7
29.9
vs Weaker (33)
10.4
11.4
9.1
3.5
2.8
4.2
23.3
22.5
24.2
% over line
52%
65%
38%
46%
31%
62%
64%
54%
75%
% under line
48%
35%
62%
54%
69%
38%
36%
46%
25%
This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Saint Etienne
10.5
Paris Saint Germain
10.4
Marseille
10.3
Lyon
10.2
Stade Brestois 29
10.2
Nice
10.0
Dijon
9.9
Reims
9.8
Monaco
9.8
Nantes
9.6
Rennes
9.6
Toulouse
9.4
Bordeaux
9.4
Nimes
9.3
Metz
9.2
Montpellier
9.1
Angers
9.1
Amiens
8.9
Strasbourg
8.9
Lille
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Nimes
4.4
Rennes
4.3
Marseille
4.3
Toulouse
4.1
Monaco
4.1
Nantes
4.0
Nice
3.9
Strasbourg
3.9
Lille
3.8
Saint Etienne
3.8
Bordeaux
3.7
Metz
3.7
Lyon
3.6
Stade Brestois 29
3.6
Dijon
3.6
Montpellier
3.5
Paris Saint Germain
3.4
Amiens
3.4
Angers
3.3
Reims
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Monaco
27.5
Amiens
27.4
Toulouse
27.3
Bordeaux
26.9
Reims
26.9
Montpellier
26.7
Dijon
26.6
Nimes
26.5
Stade Brestois 29
26.4
Rennes
26.1
Marseille
26.0
Lille
25.8
Nice
25.6
Strasbourg
25.6
Metz
25.6
Nantes
25.5
Lyon
24.6
Saint Etienne
24.5
Paris Saint Germain
24.0
Angers
23.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.3%
Under 9.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
65.4%
Under 3.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
86.3%
Under 21.5
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Monaco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.60
0.60
0.20
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.40
1.10
0.75
1.00
0.17
1.17
vs Weaker (18)
0.44
0.50
0.60
0.30
0.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
1.07
0.64
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
0.74
0.74
1.10
0.60
0.33
0.89
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Monaco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Monaco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.47
1.00
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.70
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
0.61
0.67
0.50
0.90
0.75
0.38
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.60
1.00
0.43
1.38
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.56
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
1.42
0.47
1.10
0.40
1.78
0.56
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Monaco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Monaco · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paris Brunner75%
Mika Biereth50%
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mamadou Coulibaly33%
Eric Dier25%
Lamine Camara25%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Vanderson0%
Nazinho0%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Anis Soubeir0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mathys Detourbet33%
Lukáš Hrádecký25%
Denis Zakaria25%
Vanderson25%
Nazinho25%
Lamine Camara25%
Anis Soubeir25%
Eric Dier0%
Mika Biereth0%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo0%
Paris Brunner0%
Mamadou Coulibaly0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nazinho50%
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mamadou Coulibaly33%
Mathys Detourbet33%
Eric Dier25%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo25%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Mika Biereth0%
Vanderson0%
Lamine Camara0%
Paris Brunner0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Anis Soubeir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paris Brunner50%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo25%
Aleksandr Golovin0%
Eric Dier0%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Mika Biereth0%
Vanderson0%
Nazinho0%
Lamine Camara0%
Mamadou Coulibaly0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Anis Soubeir0%
Lyon · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Loïs Openda40%
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Ernest Nuamah20%
Tyler Morton17%
Malick Fofana17%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Loïs Openda20%
Abner Vinícius20%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Corentin Tolisso33%
Pavel Šulc33%
Zachary Athekame33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Clinton Mata0%
Loïs Openda0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Noah Nartey0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Loïs Openda40%
Corentin Tolisso33%
Malick Fofana33%
Kaïl Boudache20%
Tyler Morton17%
Clinton Mata0%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Noah Nartey0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
REI (30)
€72m
SB2 (20)
€64m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
DIJ (20)
€5m
AMI (14)
€4m
Monaco's squad is €32m more valuable than Lyon's (€326m vs €293m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
DIJ (7)
€1m
AMI (4)
€0m
Monaco's attack is €27m more valuable than Lyon's (€148m vs €122m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
NIC (9)
€31m
SB2 (6)
€20m
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
ANG (3)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
DIJ (6)
€2m
AMI (2)
€0m
Monaco's midfield is €2m more valuable than Lyon's (€84m vs €82m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
NAN (10)
€34m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
SB2 (8)
€19m
MON (10)
€12m
MET (10)
€8m
AMI (8)
€4m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Monaco's defence is €4m more valuable than Lyon's (€93m vs €89m).
France: Ligue 1 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Paris Saint Germain
Marseille
Rennes
Lille
Reims
Nice
Montpellier
Angers
Strasbourg
Bordeaux
Nantes
Stade Brestois 29
Metz
Dijon
Saint Etienne
Nimes
Amiens
Toulouse