This opponent (Wiltz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wiltz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.90
1.31
2.15
1.47
1.71
vs Stronger (16)
1.12
2.00
1.25
2.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (14)
1.71
1.79
1.40
1.60
1.89
1.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mondercange) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.3%
Under 1.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.5%
Under 2.5
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.2%
Under 3.5
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.9%
No
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.3%
0-1
11.0%
1-0
9.3%
1-2
8.2%
0-2
7.6%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
5.7%
Mondercange goals ↓
Wiltz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.6%
3.2%
1.0%
1
9.3%
14%
8.2%
3.4%
1.0%
2
5.7%
7.0%
4.4%
1.8%
0.6%
3
2.0%
2.5%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mondercange goals (down), columns = Wiltz goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Differdange 03
2.67
F91 Dudelange
2.67
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.40
Wiltz
2.40
Bastendorf
2.25
Progres Niederkorn
2.25
The Belval Belvaux
2.25
Yellow Boys Weiler
2.25
UNA Strassen
2.25
Union Titus Petange
2.25
Sporting Bertrange
2.00
URB
2.00
Union Kayl-Tétange
2.00
AS Luxembourg
2.00
Marisca Mersch
2.00
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Clemency
2.00
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
Jeunesse Junglinster
2.00
Minerva Lintgen
2.00
Orania Vianden
2.00
Jeunesse Canach
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Daring Echternach
1.67
Olympia Christnach
1.50
Mondercange
1.50
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.50
Stengefort
1.50
Bourscheid
1.50
Jeunesse Useldange
1.50
Union Mertert
1.50
Obercorn
1.50
Alliance Aischdall
1.50
Red Black Egalité
1.50
US Rumelange
1.50
Résidence Walferdange
1.50
Red Boys Aspelt
1.50
Lorentzweiler
1.50
Bettembourg
1.50
Rodange 91
1.50
Young Boys
1.50
Ehlerange
1.50
Syra Mensdorf
1.50
Schifflange
1.50
Sporting Mertzig
1.50
Schengen
1.50
Jeunesse Schieren
1.50
Alisontia Steinsel
1.50
Folschette
1.50
Colmarberg
1.50
Swift Hesperange
1.50
Fola Esch
1.50
Moutfort / Medingen
1.50
Blô-Weiss Medernach
1.50
Blo-Wäiss Izeg
1.50
Rupensia Lusitanos
1.50
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.33
Etzella Ettelbruck
1.00
Luna Obercorn
0.00
Feulen
0.00
Racing Troisvierges
0.00
Brouch
0.00
Kehlen
0.00
Excelsior Grevels
0.00
Minière Lasauvage
0.00
Schouweiler
0.00
Berdorf Consdorf
0.00
Munsbach
0.00
Boevange / Attert
0.00
Red Star Merl-Belair
0.00
Atert Bissen
0.00
Grevenmacher
0.00
SC Ell
0.00
Mamer
0.00
Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz
0.00
Claravallis Clervaux
0.00
Sanem
0.00
Biekerech
0.00
Koeppchen
0.00
Noertzange
0.00
Green Boys
0.00
Pratzerthal-Redange
0.00
Les Aiglons Dalheim
0.00
Jeunesse Gilsdorf
0.00
Les Ardoisiers Perlé
0.00
Koerich
0.00
Heiderscheid / Eschdorf
0.00
Sandweiler
0.00
US Esch
0.00
Hosingen
0.00
Norden
0.00
Kopstal 33
0.00
Reisdorf
0.00
Tricolore Gasperich
0.00
Berdenia Berbourg
0.00
Erpeldange
0.00
Avenir Beggen
0.00
Wincrange
0.00
Jeunesse Biwer
0.00
RM Hamm Benfica
0.00
Rambrouch
0.00
Mondercange is 0.90 points worse than Wiltz in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bastendorf
5.00
Schengen
4.50
FC Differdange 03
4.33
Progres Niederkorn
4.00
Pratzerthal-Redange
4.00
Jeunesse Schieren
4.00
UNA Strassen
4.00
Mondercange
3.50
US Rumelange
3.50
F91 Dudelange
3.50
Union Titus Petange
3.50
US Hostert
3.33
Brouch
3.00
Schouweiler
3.00
The Belval Belvaux
3.00
Alliance Aischdall
3.00
Red Black Egalité
3.00
Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz
3.00
Koerich
3.00
Ehlerange
3.00
Wiltz
3.00
Sporting Mertzig
3.00
Hosingen
3.00
Berdenia Berbourg
3.00
Wincrange
3.00
Rupensia Lusitanos
3.00
Yellow Boys Weiler
2.75
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.67
Orania Vianden
2.67
Bourscheid
2.50
Young Boys
2.50
Moutfort / Medingen
2.50
Blo-Wäiss Izeg
2.50
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.40
Sporting Bertrange
2.33
URB
2.33
Union Kayl-Tétange
2.33
Clemency
2.33
Daring Echternach
2.33
Jeunesse Junglinster
2.33
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.00
Luna Obercorn
2.00
Jeunesse Useldange
2.00
Marisca Mersch
2.00
Racing Troisvierges
2.00
Union Mertert
2.00
Lorentzweiler
2.00
Koeppchen
2.00
Bettembourg
2.00
Les Ardoisiers Perlé
2.00
Syra Mensdorf
2.00
Colmarberg
2.00
Tricolore Gasperich
2.00
Fola Esch
2.00
Jeunesse Biwer
2.00
RM Hamm Benfica
2.00
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.00
Victoria Rosport
1.67
Jeunesse Canach
1.67
Olympia Christnach
1.50
Rodange 91
1.50
Schifflange
1.50
Alisontia Steinsel
1.50
Swift Hesperange
1.50
AS Luxembourg
1.33
Minerva Lintgen
1.20
Feulen
1.00
Kehlen
1.00
Excelsior Grevels
1.00
Berdorf Consdorf
1.00
Munsbach
1.00
Boevange / Attert
1.00
Grevenmacher
1.00
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.00
SC Ell
1.00
Mamer
1.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Sanem
1.00
Biekerech
1.00
Red Boys Aspelt
1.00
Noertzange
1.00
Green Boys
1.00
Les Aiglons Dalheim
1.00
US Esch
1.00
Folschette
1.00
Kopstal 33
1.00
Erpeldange
1.00
Blô-Weiss Medernach
1.00
Rambrouch
1.00
Stengefort
0.50
Obercorn
0.50
Minière Lasauvage
0.00
Red Star Merl-Belair
0.00
Atert Bissen
0.00
Claravallis Clervaux
0.00
Jeunesse Gilsdorf
0.00
Heiderscheid / Eschdorf
0.00
Sandweiler
0.00
Norden
0.00
Reisdorf
0.00
Avenir Beggen
0.00
Mondercange is 0.50 goals better than Wiltz in terms of goals scored per game (3.50 vs 3.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Differdange 03
0.33
US Mondorf-les-bains
0.50
Obercorn
0.50
Schifflange
0.50
The Belval Belvaux
0.75
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
0.80
AS Luxembourg
1.00
Marisca Mersch
1.00
Victoria Rosport
1.00
Minière Lasauvage
1.00
Atert Bissen
1.00
Progres Niederkorn
1.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Norden
1.00
Jeunesse Canach
1.00
Reisdorf
1.00
Swift Hesperange
1.00
UNA Strassen
1.25
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.33
Daring Echternach
1.33
Minerva Lintgen
1.40
Wiltz
1.40
Stengefort
1.50
US Rumelange
1.50
Bettembourg
1.50
Rodange 91
1.50
Jeunesse Schieren
1.50
Alisontia Steinsel
1.50
US Hostert
1.67
Union Titus Petange
1.75
F91 Dudelange
1.83
URB
2.00
Bastendorf
2.00
Jeunesse Useldange
2.00
Feulen
2.00
Union Mertert
2.00
Munsbach
2.00
Boevange / Attert
2.00
Red Star Merl-Belair
2.00
Grevenmacher
2.00
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.00
Claravallis Clervaux
2.00
Sanem
2.00
Lorentzweiler
2.00
Jeunesse Junglinster
2.00
Orania Vianden
2.00
Kopstal 33
2.00
Fola Esch
2.00
Avenir Beggen
2.00
Moutfort / Medingen
2.00
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.00
Rambrouch
2.00
Yellow Boys Weiler
2.25
Clemency
2.33
Red Black Egalité
2.50
Young Boys
2.50
Syra Mensdorf
2.50
Sporting Mertzig
2.50
Blô-Weiss Medernach
2.50
Olympia Christnach
3.00
Berdorf Consdorf
3.00
Alliance Aischdall
3.00
Mamer
3.00
Koeppchen
3.00
Green Boys
3.00
Les Aiglons Dalheim
3.00
Heiderscheid / Eschdorf
3.00
Ehlerange
3.00
Schengen
3.00
Erpeldange
3.00
Jeunesse Biwer
3.00
RM Hamm Benfica
3.00
Sporting Bertrange
3.33
Mondercange
3.50
Folschette
3.50
Blo-Wäiss Izeg
3.50
Union Kayl-Tétange
4.00
Racing Troisvierges
4.00
SC Ell
4.00
Red Boys Aspelt
4.00
Noertzange
4.00
Jeunesse Gilsdorf
4.00
Les Ardoisiers Perlé
4.00
Koerich
4.00
US Esch
4.00
Tricolore Gasperich
4.00
Berdenia Berbourg
4.00
Wincrange
4.00
Bourscheid
4.50
Rupensia Lusitanos
4.50
Luna Obercorn
5.00
Brouch
5.00
Kehlen
5.00
Schouweiler
5.00
Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz
5.00
Pratzerthal-Redange
5.00
Sandweiler
5.00
Hosingen
5.00
Excelsior Grevels
8.00
Colmarberg
8.00
Biekerech
13.00
Mondercange is 2.10 goals worse than Wiltz in terms of goals conceded per game (3.50 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mondercange or Draw✗ Miss
61.2%
Avg Implied -
30%
31%
39%
covers Mondercange + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mondercange or Wiltz✓ Hit
69.2%
Avg Implied -
30%
31%
39%
covers Mondercange + Wiltz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Wiltz✓ Hit
69.6%
Avg Implied -
30%
31%
39%
covers Draw + Wiltz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mondercange over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.6%
Under
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mondercange over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.9%
Under
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mondercange over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mondercange over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mondercange, so a minus line means Mondercange give that many goals of a start and Wiltz receive them. At -1, Mondercange must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mondercange win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mondercange)Actual: Wiltz
Mondercange -2
3.7%
Draw -2
8.6%
Wiltz +2
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mondercange)Actual: Wiltz
Mondercange -1
12.3%
Draw -1
18.1%
Wiltz +1
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mondercange)Actual: Wiltz
Mondercange +1
61.2%
Draw +1
21.2%
Wiltz -1
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mondercange)Actual: Wiltz
Mondercange +2
82.4%
Draw +2
11.6%
Wiltz -2
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mondercange
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.83
0.33
0.67
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.50
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.30
0.85
0.33
0.78
0.27
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Wiltz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wiltz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.57
1.07
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
0.93
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.29
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.89
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Mondercange) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mondercange over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mondercange over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mondercange over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mondercange
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.27
0.47
1.07
0.73
1.47
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.50
0.50
1.33
1.25
1.75
vs Similar (20)
0.50
1.15
0.44
0.89
0.55
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Wiltz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wiltz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.13
0.71
1.00
0.81
1.25
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
1.20
0.75
1.00
0.57
1.43
vs Similar (15)
0.87
1.07
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mondercange) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mondercange over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mondercange over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mondercange over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Luxembourg: National Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →