The model favours an away win for Cove Rangers, with a 42 % chance, followed by a 32 % home win and a 26 % draw. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, but the most likely total is two goals, a 22 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.7 % chance.
Montrose, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.58 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. Cove Rangers, on the road, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.92 conceded against similar opposition. Both sides have recently won their opening matches, each 3-0, but have struggled in the following games.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.5 %), Under 6.5 (95.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (90.9 %), Under 5.5 (90.2 %), Under 5.5 cards (88.8 %), Away +2 handicap (84.6 %) and Over 1.5 (83.1 %). All probabilities are presented as percentages.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Montrose win
34.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers win
39.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Montrose
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.80
1.60
1.60
1.27
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.90
1.70
1.50
1.09
2.27
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
1.56
1.40
1.80
1.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.40
1.21
1.00
1.19
1.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.38
1.54
1.25
1.17
1.50
1.92
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.83
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.0%
Under 2.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.6%
Under 3.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.6%
No
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
6.0%
1-0
6.0%
0-2
6.0%
Montrose goals ↓
Cove Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
6.6%
6.0%
3.1%
1.2%
1
6.0%
12%
8.7%
4.5%
1.8%
2
5.2%
8.1%
6.3%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.5%
3.9%
3.1%
1.6%
0.6%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Montrose goals (down), columns = Cove Rangers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Montrose is 0.11 points better than Cove Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Peterhead
1.33
Montrose
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Montrose is 0.19 goals better than Cove Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Montrose is 0.64 goals worse than Cove Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Montrose
For 5.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cove Rangers
For 4.3 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 10.2 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Montrose
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.7
8.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
23.6
21.8
25.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (38)
9.0
9.5
8.4
3.0
3.2
2.9
24.6
23.3
26.0
vs Weaker (12)
7.9
6.0
9.8
1.8
1.2
2.3
20.1
16.2
24.0
% over line
32%
32%
33%
44%
33%
54%
68%
58%
78%
% under line
68%
68%
67%
56%
67%
46%
32%
42%
22%
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.7
10.1
2.5
3.3
1.9
22.2
22.4
21.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
9.4
9.1
9.7
2.3
2.8
1.9
22.0
21.9
22.0
vs Weaker (11)
9.2
7.0
11.0
3.3
5.5
2.0
22.8
24.0
21.8
% over line
46%
33%
58%
34%
52%
19%
51%
44%
58%
% under line
54%
67%
42%
66%
48%
81%
49%
56%
42%
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.1%
Under 9.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
41.0%
Under 3.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
55.3%
Under 21.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Montrose or Draw
60.9%
Avg Implied -
34%
26%
39%
covers Montrose + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Montrose or Cove Rangers
73.6%
Avg Implied -
34%
26%
39%
covers Montrose + Cove Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cove Rangers
65.6%
Avg Implied -
34%
26%
39%
covers Draw + Cove Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Montrose over/under 0.5
Over
76.6%
Under
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 1.5
Over
42.6%
Under
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 2.5
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5
Over
79.0%
Under
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5
Over
46.2%
Under
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5
Over
20.6%
Under
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 3.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Montrose, so a minus line means Montrose give that many goals of a start and Cove Rangers receive them. At -1, Montrose must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Montrose win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Montrose)
Montrose -2
6.2%
Draw -2
10.4%
Cove Rangers +2
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Montrose)
Montrose -1
16.6%
Draw -1
17.8%
Cove Rangers +1
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Montrose)
Montrose +1
60.9%
Draw +1
19.2%
Cove Rangers -1
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Montrose)
Montrose +2
80.1%
Draw +2
12.0%
Cove Rangers -2
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Montrose
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.67
0.90
0.50
0.55
0.82
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.67
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.29
0.50
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.54
0.25
0.58
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.67
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.1%
Under 0.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.9%
Under 1.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.7%
Under 2.5
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Montrose over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.6%
Under
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.4%
Under
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Montrose
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.13
0.80
1.00
0.60
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.67
1.24
0.80
1.00
0.55
1.45
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.89
0.80
1.00
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.93
0.50
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.00
1.00
0.58
0.83
1.42
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.17
0.50
0.00
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.8%
Under 0.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.2%
Under 1.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.3%
Under 2.5
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Montrose over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.8%
Under
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.5%
Under
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.0%
Under
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (11)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Montrose and Cove Rangers have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Montrose and Cove Rangers have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (3)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Montrose and Cove Rangers have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (7)
€1m
QOT (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Montrose and Cove Rangers have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hamilton Academical
Ross County
Alloa Athletic
East Kilbride
Peterhead
East Fife
Airdrie United
Queen of the South