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Montrose vs Hamilton Academical Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 0-5
Montrose
Montrose
Vs
28%
25%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical
Scotland: League One
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Montrose a 28% win probability against Hamilton Academical in the Scotland: League One on 2026-08-01, with 25% for the draw and 47% for Hamilton Academical. The model estimates around 3.2 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.4%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (84%), Under 5.5 cards (82%), Under 11.5 corners (77%), Under 25.5 fouls (74%).

Results analysis

Montrose finished 0-5 against Hamilton Academical (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 28% home win, 25% draw and 47% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (84%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Montrose win✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical win✓ Hit
47.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MontroseMontrose

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D13L54W11D10W23L13L02L22D02LH·KEL03/03A·INV07/03H·ALL14/03A·PET21/03H·EAS04/04H·COV07/04A·KEL11/04H·HAM18/04A·QUE25/04H·STE02/05
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.901.471.931.271.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.551.901.702.001.401.80
vs Weaker (10)1.001.901.001.801.002.00
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hamilton AcademicalHamilton Academical

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L10W21W00D03L13L31W21W11D43WH·RAI29/03A·DUN05/04A·PAR12/04H·QUE19/04H·LIV26/04A·FAL02/05A·FOR05/05H·FOR09/05A·CLY12/05H·CLY15/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.771.271.801.271.73
vs Stronger (3)1.002.002.002.000.502.00
vs Similar (23)1.091.780.921.751.271.82
vs Weaker (4)2.501.503.002.002.001.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.5%
Under 1.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.4%
Under 2.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.1%
Under 3.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.1%
No
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
1-2
9.4%
2-1
7.0%
0-2
6.9%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
1-3
5.7%
0-0
5.2%
Montrose goals ↓
Hamilton Academical goals →
01234
05.2%6.6%6.9%4.2%1.9%
14.6%11%9.4%5.7%2.6%
23.8%7.0%6.3%3.8%1.8%
31.7%3.1%2.9%1.7%0.8%
40.6%1.1%1.0%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Montrose goals (down), columns = Hamilton Academical goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Montrose is 1.33 points worse than Hamilton Academical in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 2.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Queen of the South
1.36
Ross County
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Montrose
1.33
Peterhead
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Montrose is 1.17 goals worse than Hamilton Academical in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Montrose is 0.36 goals worse than Hamilton Academical in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

MontroseMontrose

For 4.9 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.5

🚩 Corners

190722251424651044642455294196111410697H·STEA·QUEH·HAMA·KELH·COVH·EASA·PETH·ALLA·INVH·KEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.0

🟨 Cards

70114113231334222342414246647H·STEA·QUEH·HAMA·KELH·COVH·EASA·PETH·ALLA·INVH·KEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 11.6 · Total 24.2

⚠️ Fouls

360771914382115111371221914111016131114331136241930252624H·STEA·QUEH·HAMA·KELH·COVH·EASA·PETH·ALLA·INVH·KEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Hamilton AcademicalHamilton Academical

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

MontroseMontrose

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.48.58.43.73.73.822.321.223.3
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (31)8.08.08.04.14.14.223.923.624.1
vs Weaker (19)9.29.39.03.13.23.019.717.721.9
% over line28%28%28%60%56%64%56%52%60%
% under line72%72%72%40%44%36%44%48%40%
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hamilton AcademicalHamilton Academical

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (8)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (38)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (4)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
East Fife
9.7
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
9.0
Montrose
8.4

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.6
Airdrie United
3.4
Ross County
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.4
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.8
Montrose
22.3
Ross County
21.4
Cove Rangers
20.9
Airdrie United
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.3%
Under 9.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.8%
Under 3.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
56.8%
Under 21.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MontroseMontrose

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L22D10W00D01L00D01L10W01LH·KEL03/03A·INV07/03H·ALL14/03A·PET21/03H·EAS04/04H·COV07/04A·KEL11/04H·HAM18/04A·QUE25/04H·STE02/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.670.670.530.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.750.600.800.600.700.60
vs Weaker (10)0.300.800.400.800.200.80
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hamilton AcademicalHamilton Academical

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W20W00D02L11D10W00D11D22DH·RAI29/03A·DUN05/04A·PAR12/04H·QUE19/04H·LIV26/04A·FAL02/05A·FOR05/05H·FOR09/05A·CLY12/05H·CLY15/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.700.600.870.730.53
vs Stronger (3)1.000.672.001.000.500.50
vs Similar (23)0.570.700.420.830.730.55
vs Weaker (4)1.000.751.001.001.000.50
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards81.5%--------
Under 11.5 corners77.2%--------
Under 25.5 fouls74.5%--------
Over 2.5 cards73.2%--------
Over 19.5 fouls72.8%--------

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (26)
€2m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (9)
€1m
EK (3)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (5)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (12)
€1m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Montrose vs Hamilton Academical · H/A from MON
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

MontroseMontrose

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26HMON Vs Stenhousemuir0-2
25/04/26AQueen of Sth Vs MON2-2
18/04/26HMON Vs Hamilton0-2
11/04/26AKelty Hearts Vs MON3-1
07/04/26HMON Vs Cove Rangers2-3
04/04/26HMON Vs East Fife1-0
21/03/26APeterhead Vs MON1-1
14/03/26HMON Vs Alloa5-4
07/03/26AInverness CT Vs MON3-1
03/03/26HMON Vs Kelty Hearts1-1

Hamilton AcademicalHamilton Academical

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/26HHA Vs Clyde4-3
12/05/26AClyde Vs HA1-1
09/05/26HHA Vs Forfar2-1
05/05/26AForfar Vs HA1-3
02/05/25AFalkirk Vs HA3-1
26/04/25HHA Vs Livingston0-3
19/04/25HHA Vs Queen's Park0-0
12/04/25APartick Vs HA1-2
05/04/25ADunfermline Vs HA0-1
29/03/25HHA Vs Raith Rovers0-3

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Montrose
Montrose
Scotland: League One
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL1.14
HomeWWLLL1.28
AwayDLDLD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%36%20%
AVG goals3.143.243.04
Over 1.5 %88%92%84%
Over 2.5 %62%68%56%
Over 3.5 %40%36%44%
Scored1.341.361.32
Conceded1.801.881.72
BTTS66%56%76%
Clean Sheet10%8%12%
Corners8.448.528.36
Cards3.743.723.76
Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical
Scotland: League One
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW1.28
HomeLDLWW1.60
AwayWWLWD0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%48%24%
AVG goals3.023.202.84
Over 1.5 %78%84%72%
Over 2.5 %64%72%56%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored1.341.521.16
Conceded1.681.681.68
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet18%20%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamilton AcademicalHamilton Academical39
100%
3.0
100+10
3.3
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.30.0
-
2East KilbrideEast Kilbride37
67%
2.3
92+7
3.7
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.00.7
-
3Ross CountyRoss County26
100%
3.0
31+2
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.50.5
-
4PeterheadPeterhead36
67%
2.0
32+1
1.7
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.7
-
5Alloa AthleticAlloa Athletic34
33%
1.3
31+2
1.3
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.3
-
6East FifeEast Fife34
33%
1.3
32+1
1.7
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.7
-
7Airdrie UnitedAirdrie United32
0%
0.7
15-4
2.0
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.31.7
-
8Cove RangersCove Rangers31
0%
0.3
05-5
1.7
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.7
-
9Queen of the SouthQueen of the South20
0%
0.0
16-5
3.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
10MontroseMontrose30
0%
0.0
110-9
3.7
100%
100%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.33.3
-
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →

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