The contest between Montrose and Peterhead is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 41% for Montrose, 26% for a draw and 33% for Peterhead. The expected goal total sits at 3.0, but the most probable total is two goals, with a 23% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.2% probability, a tidy reflection of the teams’ similar offensive output.
Montrose, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened side, averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Peterhead, on the road, averages 1.08 scored and 1.54 conceded. Both sides have shown recent form that keeps them in the mix: Montrose on a two-game winning streak, Peterhead fresh from a draw.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Under 6.5 (96.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.9%), Under 5.5 (91.3%), Home +2 handicap (84.6%), Over 19.5 fouls (83.6%), and Away under 2.5 goals (83.0%). These picks highlight the low-scoring nature and disciplined play expected in this fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Montrose win
41.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Peterhead win
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Montrose
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.80
1.60
1.60
1.27
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.90
1.70
1.50
1.09
2.27
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
1.56
1.40
1.80
1.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Peterhead
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.53
1.07
1.50
1.12
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.16
1.52
1.25
1.50
1.08
1.54
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
1.60
0.00
1.50
1.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.6%
Under 1.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.3%
Under 2.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.9%
Under 3.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.7%
No
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
6.7%
2-0
6.3%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
6.0%
0-1
5.8%
Montrose goals ↓
Peterhead goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
5.8%
4.8%
2.3%
0.8%
1
6.7%
12%
7.8%
3.7%
1.3%
2
6.3%
8.9%
6.3%
3.0%
1.0%
3
3.4%
4.8%
3.4%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.4%
1.9%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Montrose goals (down), columns = Peterhead goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Montrose is 0.03 points worse than Peterhead in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Peterhead
1.33
Montrose
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Montrose and Peterhead are level in goals scored per game (both 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Montrose is 0.08 goals worse than Peterhead in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Montrose
For 5.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Peterhead
For 4.5 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 16.1 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Montrose
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.9
9.1
2.4
2.4
2.5
23.8
21.9
25.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (38)
9.3
9.7
8.8
2.6
2.8
2.5
24.9
23.5
26.6
vs Weaker (12)
7.9
6.0
9.8
1.8
1.2
2.3
20.1
16.2
24.0
% over line
35%
33%
38%
40%
29%
50%
71%
61%
81%
% under line
65%
67%
62%
60%
71%
50%
29%
39%
19%
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Peterhead
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.2
9.6
3.4
3.4
3.4
27.9
28.1
27.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
10.0
10.3
9.8
3.2
3.0
3.3
26.9
26.6
27.2
vs Weaker (9)
6.9
5.5
8.7
4.6
5.0
4.0
31.9
33.2
30.0
% over line
43%
39%
47%
52%
54%
50%
86%
94%
76%
% under line
57%
61%
53%
48%
46%
50%
14%
6%
24%
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.3%
Under 9.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
57.7%
Under 3.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.8%
Under 21.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Montrose or Draw
67.5%
Avg Implied -
41%
26%
33%
covers Montrose + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Montrose or Peterhead
73.7%
Avg Implied -
41%
26%
33%
covers Montrose + Peterhead
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Peterhead
58.8%
Avg Implied -
41%
26%
33%
covers Draw + Peterhead
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Montrose over/under 0.5
Over
80.1%
Under
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 1.5
Over
47.9%
Under
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 2.5
Over
22.0%
Under
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 3.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 0.5
Over
75.7%
Under
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5
Over
41.3%
Under
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Montrose, so a minus line means Montrose give that many goals of a start and Peterhead receive them. At -1, Montrose must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Montrose win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Montrose)
Montrose -2
8.8%
Draw -2
12.7%
Peterhead +2
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Montrose)
Montrose -1
21.5%
Draw -1
19.7%
Peterhead +1
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Montrose)
Montrose +1
67.5%
Draw +1
17.2%
Peterhead -1
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Montrose)
Montrose +2
84.6%
Draw +2
9.8%
Peterhead -2
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Montrose
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.67
0.90
0.50
0.55
0.82
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.67
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Peterhead
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.43
0.50
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.31
0.69
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.60
0.00
0.50
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Montrose over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Montrose
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.13
0.80
1.00
0.60
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.67
1.24
0.80
1.00
0.55
1.45
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.89
0.80
1.00
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Peterhead) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Peterhead
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.64
1.00
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.92
0.75
1.00
0.77
0.85
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Montrose over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Peterhead over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
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Hamilton Academical
Ross County
Alloa Athletic
East Kilbride
East Fife
Cove Rangers
Airdrie United
Queen of the South