This opponent (Arouca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arouca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.80
1.13
1.60
1.07
2.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
2.33
0.75
2.25
0.20
2.40
vs Similar (13)
1.46
1.92
1.17
1.67
1.71
2.14
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
1.00
1.40
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.9%
Under 1.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.2%
@ 2.11+12.3%
Under 2.5
42.8%
@ 1.72-12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.8%
Under 3.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.6%
No
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1 ✓
9.5%
1-0
7.8%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
6.8%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
5.9%
3-1
5.6%
Moreirense goals ↓
Arouca goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
5.2%
3.9%
1.6%
0.5%
1
7.8%
12%
6.8%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.7%
9.5%
5.9%
2.4%
0.8%
3
4.5%
5.6%
3.4%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.0%
2.4%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moreirense goals (down), columns = Arouca goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.68
Sporting CP
2.50
Benfica
2.18
SC Braga
1.91
GIL Vicente
1.50
Guimaraes
1.41
Santa Clara
1.18
Famalicao
1.15
Estoril
1.15
Portimonense
1.12
Maritimo
1.12
Boavista
1.12
Pacos Ferreira
1.12
Vizela
0.97
Arouca
0.91
Moreirense
0.85
Tondela
0.82
Belenenses
0.76
Moreirense is 0.06 points worse than Arouca in terms of average points per game (0.85 vs 0.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.53
Benfica
2.29
Sporting CP
2.15
SC Braga
1.53
Guimaraes
1.47
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.32
Tondela
1.21
Maritimo
1.15
Boavista
1.15
Santa Clara
1.12
Vizela
1.09
Estoril
1.06
Moreirense
0.97
Portimonense
0.91
Arouca
0.88
Pacos Ferreira
0.85
Belenenses
0.68
Moreirense is 0.09 goals better than Arouca in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.65
Sporting CP
0.68
Benfica
0.88
SC Braga
0.91
Guimaraes
1.21
GIL Vicente
1.24
Estoril
1.26
Maritimo
1.29
Pacos Ferreira
1.29
Portimonense
1.32
Famalicao
1.50
Moreirense
1.50
Boavista
1.53
Santa Clara
1.59
Arouca
1.59
Belenenses
1.62
Vizela
1.71
Tondela
1.97
Moreirense is 0.09 goals better than Arouca in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Moreirense
For 4.8 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 3.4 · Total 6.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.5 · Against 13.6 · Total 29.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arouca
For 4.7 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 3.3 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 16.0 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Moreirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
8.8
10.4
5.6
5.7
5.5
31.1
31.6
30.6
vs Stronger (13)
9.6
10.1
9.0
4.7
5.9
3.3
29.0
31.0
26.7
vs Similar (26)
9.0
8.5
9.7
6.1
6.1
6.1
31.0
31.9
29.9
vs Weaker (11)
10.7
7.2
12.7
5.4
3.8
6.3
34.1
32.0
35.3
% over line
50%
44%
56%
78%
84%
72%
96%
100%
92%
% under line
50%
56%
44%
22%
16%
28%
4%
0%
8%
This opponent (Arouca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arouca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
11.3
7.3
0.7
0.6
0.8
30.0
31.3
28.7
vs Stronger (15)
8.3
10.0
7.5
0.8
0.4
1.1
25.3
27.0
24.5
vs Similar (20)
10.3
12.0
7.0
1.2
1.2
1.2
34.7
33.5
37.0
vs Weaker (15)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
33%
67%
0%
8%
8%
8%
83%
100%
67%
% under line
67%
33%
100%
92%
92%
92%
17%
0%
33%
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Vizela
11.8
Estoril
10.5
Guimaraes
10.2
Boavista
10.2
Belenenses
10.2
Santa Clara
10.0
GIL Vicente
10.0
Tondela
9.8
Benfica
9.7
Portimonense
9.6
Sporting CP
9.6
Moreirense
9.6
SC Braga
9.5
Famalicao
9.4
Pacos Ferreira
9.4
Arouca
9.3
FC Porto
9.1
Maritimo
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Famalicao
6.3
Vizela
6.2
Maritimo
6.1
Arouca
6.0
Sporting CP
5.9
Moreirense
5.6
FC Porto
5.4
Belenenses
5.4
Estoril
5.4
Santa Clara
5.4
Boavista
5.3
Tondela
5.3
Portimonense
5.0
GIL Vicente
4.9
SC Braga
4.9
Pacos Ferreira
4.8
Guimaraes
4.7
Benfica
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maritimo
35.7
Boavista
33.5
Sporting CP
33.3
Santa Clara
33.2
Pacos Ferreira
32.7
Estoril
32.6
Famalicao
32.5
FC Porto
32.4
Portimonense
32.0
Guimaraes
31.3
Moreirense
31.1
Belenenses
30.9
Tondela
30.3
Arouca
30.0
SC Braga
30.0
Benfica
29.8
GIL Vicente
29.4
Vizela
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Moreirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.93
0.87
1.20
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.65
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.25
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arouca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.67
0.67
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.33
0.25
1.25
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.85
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.14
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.50
1.20
0.40
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Moreirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.53
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.11
0.50
0.50
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.47
0.88
0.50
0.78
0.44
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arouca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.90
0.47
0.93
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
1.08
0.67
1.17
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.50
0.20
0.60
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Moreirense · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nile John33%
João Veloso33%
Kiko33%
André Ferreira0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nile John67%
Kiko67%
Guilherme Liberato33%
Gilberto Batista33%
Rodrigo Alonso33%
Leandro Santos33%
André Ferreira0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
João Veloso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexandre Parsemain33%
João Veloso33%
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
João Veloso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Arouca · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivan Barbero75%
Jose Fontán25%
Dylan Nandín25%
Espen Van Ee25%
Javi Sánchez0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Naïs Djouahra0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Pablo Gozálbez0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
Hyun-ju Lee0%
Mateo Flores0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Javi Sánchez50%
Dylan Nandín50%
Hyun-ju Lee33%
Ivan Barbero25%
Orest Lebedenko25%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena25%
Naïs Djouahra0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Pablo Gozálbez0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Jose Fontán0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
Mateo Flores0%
Espen Van Ee0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Naïs Djouahra50%
Hyun-ju Lee33%
Pablo Gozálbez25%
Alfonso Trezza25%
Javi Sánchez0%
Ivan Barbero0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Jose Fontán0%
Dylan Nandín0%
Taichi Fukui0%
Pedro Santos0%
Mateo Flores0%
Espen Van Ee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Barbero25%
Naïs Djouahra25%
Taichi Fukui25%
Javi Sánchez0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Pablo Gozálbez0%
Brian Mansilla0%
Jose Fontán0%
Alfonso Trezza0%
Dylan Nandín0%
Pedro Santos0%
Hyun-ju Lee0%
Mateo Flores0%
Espen Van Ee0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
POR (20)
€6m
PF (13)
€2m
Moreirense's squad is €5m less valuable than Arouca's (€22m vs €28m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
SC (11)
€9m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
MOR (5)
€5m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
PF (3)
€1m
Moreirense's attack is €7m less valuable than Arouca's (€5m vs €11m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
SC (5)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
VIZ (5)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Moreirense and Arouca have a similar midfield value (both €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
Moreirense and Arouca have a similar defence value (both €9m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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FC Porto
Sporting CP
Benfica
SC Braga
GIL Vicente
Guimaraes
Santa Clara
Famalicao
Estoril
Maritimo
Boavista
Portimonense
Pacos Ferreira
Vizela
Tondela
Belenenses