Moreirense vs Benfica Result & Analysis

The model rates Benfica the clear favourite, assigning a 65% chance of an away win. That high probability reflects Benfica’s strong away form - scoring 1.62 goals per game while conceding only 0.69 against weaker opponents - versus Moreirense’s 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded at home against stronger sides. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being two goals overall. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is a 0-1 result, with a 15.1% chance, which aligns with the 2-goal expectation. Home win probability sits at 11%, draw at 24%, and away win at 65%. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (99.2%), Over 21.5 fouls (97.7%), Over 23.5 fouls (94.5%), Over 25.5 fouls (88.8% hit, 11.2% miss), Over 2.5 cards (87.4% miss), Under 3.5 (77.4% hit), Over 8.5 corners (76.2% hit), and Over 3.5 cards (73.3% miss). Benfica’s recent four-game winning streak and Moreirense’s return from a win set the stage for a likely 0-1 or 0-2 outcome, with the model’s pick favouring the away side.

The match ended 0-2 in favour of Benfica, confirming the model’s prediction that the away side would win. The win extends Moreirense’s winless run, while Benfica continues a four-game winning streak. The model had given Benfica a 65% chance of victory, and its favourite call proved correct. The suggested selections were largely accurate: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 99.2%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 97.7%, Over 23.5 fouls hit at 94.5%, Over 25.5 fouls missed at 88.8%, Over 2.5 cards missed at 87.4%, Under 3.5 cards hit at 77.4%, Over 8.5 corners hit at 76.2%, and Over 3.5 cards missed at 73.3%. The most likely score of 0-1 was close, but the final 0-2 result still aligned with the model’s overall assessment.