This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.60
1.67
1.27
1.47
1.93
vs Stronger (22)
1.09
1.64
1.33
1.25
0.80
2.10
vs Similar (8)
2.88
1.50
3.00
1.33
2.80
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.2%
Under 1.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.4%
@ 1.88+11.9%
Under 2.5
37.6%
@ 1.92-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.2%
Under 3.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.8%
No
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.3%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.8%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
5.9%
1-0
5.8%
3-1
5.0%
0-0
5.0%
Moreirense goals ↓
Boavista goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
5.0%
4.5%
2.3%
0.9%
1
5.8%
11%
7.8%
3.9%
1.5%
2
5.9%
8.8%
6.7%
3.3%
1.3%
3
3.3%
5.0%
3.8%
1.9%
0.7%
4
1.4%
2.2%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moreirense goals (down), columns = Boavista goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AVS
3.00
Sporting CP
2.65
Benfica
2.35
FC Porto
2.12
SC Braga
2.00
Guimaraes
1.85
Moreirense
1.62
Arouca
1.35
Famalicao
1.24
Casa Pia
1.12
Farense
1.09
Rio Ave
1.09
GIL Vicente
1.06
Estoril
0.97
Estrela
0.97
Boavista
0.94
Portimonense
0.89
Vizela
0.76
Chaves
0.68
Moreirense is 0.68 points better than Boavista in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.82
Benfica
2.26
SC Braga
2.09
AVS
2.00
FC Porto
1.85
Arouca
1.59
Guimaraes
1.53
Estoril
1.44
Farense
1.35
GIL Vicente
1.24
Boavista
1.15
Portimonense
1.14
Casa Pia
1.12
Rio Ave
1.12
Famalicao
1.09
Vizela
1.06
Moreirense
1.06
Estrela
0.97
Chaves
0.91
Moreirense is 0.09 goals worse than Boavista in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.79
Benfica
0.82
Sporting CP
0.85
AVS
1.00
Moreirense
1.03
Guimaraes
1.12
Famalicao
1.21
Rio Ave
1.26
Casa Pia
1.47
SC Braga
1.47
Arouca
1.47
Farense
1.50
GIL Vicente
1.53
Estrela
1.56
Estoril
1.71
Boavista
1.82
Vizela
1.94
Portimonense
2.11
Chaves
2.12
Moreirense is 0.79 goals better than Boavista in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.82).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Porto
64%
Benfica
59%
Sporting CP
59%
SC Braga
57%
Arouca
54%
Vizela
50%
GIL Vicente
49%
Rio Ave
49%
Estoril
49%
Guimaraes
48%
Boavista
48%
Famalicao
47%
Estrela
47%
Moreirense
46%
Portimonense
46%
Casa Pia
44%
Chaves
43%
Farense
42%
AVS
35%
Moreirense is 2.0 percentage points worse than Boavista in terms of average possession (46% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Moreirense
For 5.7 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.4 · Against 12.5 · Total 28.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Boavista
For 4.0 · Against 7.1 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 3.1 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 16.6 · Total 31.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Moreirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.4
9.7
4.8
4.7
4.9
28.4
28.1
28.7
vs Stronger (4)
11.0
11.3
10.0
7.8
8.0
7.0
30.5
32.0
26.0
vs Similar (27)
10.0
10.9
9.2
5.1
4.3
5.8
27.6
27.7
27.6
vs Weaker (19)
9.8
9.3
10.5
3.8
4.2
3.4
29.0
26.9
31.5
% over line
62%
65%
60%
66%
64%
68%
90%
90%
89%
% under line
38%
35%
40%
34%
36%
32%
10%
10%
11%
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.1
9.2
2.1
2.0
2.2
29.8
30.1
29.4
vs Stronger (35)
9.2
8.3
10.8
2.2
2.5
1.9
28.2
30.3
24.5
vs Similar (15)
9.2
15.0
7.8
2.0
0.7
2.9
33.2
29.0
34.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
38%
38%
38%
30%
28%
32%
81%
88%
75%
% under line
62%
62%
62%
70%
72%
68%
19%
12%
25%
This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Estrela
12.0
Casa Pia
11.9
Chaves
11.2
Farense
11.1
Vizela
10.9
Benfica
10.6
Portimonense
10.5
Guimaraes
10.3
Estoril
10.0
FC Porto
9.8
GIL Vicente
9.8
Boavista
9.8
Famalicao
9.7
Moreirense
9.7
Rio Ave
9.7
Arouca
9.6
SC Braga
9.2
Sporting CP
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arouca
6.7
FC Porto
6.7
Boavista
6.6
Famalicao
6.5
Estrela
6.2
Guimaraes
6.2
Moreirense
6.1
GIL Vicente
6.1
Farense
6.0
Vizela
6.0
Sporting CP
6.0
Estoril
5.8
Portimonense
5.8
SC Braga
5.5
Benfica
5.4
Chaves
5.3
Casa Pia
4.6
Rio Ave
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Chaves
31.4
Rio Ave
31.4
Farense
31.3
Famalicao
31.3
Arouca
30.7
Guimaraes
30.4
Boavista
29.8
Estoril
29.4
Portimonense
29.2
Moreirense
28.5
Vizela
28.0
FC Porto
27.8
Estrela
27.5
Casa Pia
27.4
GIL Vicente
27.4
Sporting CP
26.4
SC Braga
25.5
Benfica
24.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
63.2%
Under 9.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
83.5%
Under 3.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
89.4%
Under 21.5
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Moreirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.93
0.60
0.53
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.40
0.83
0.33
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (12)
0.83
0.58
1.00
0.86
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
0.73
0.33
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (22)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.42
0.50
0.60
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.25
1.67
0.00
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Moreirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.73
1.67
0.87
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.33
0.50
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.60
1.50
0.83
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (12)
1.58
0.50
2.14
0.57
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.17
0.93
0.93
0.73
1.40
vs Stronger (22)
0.59
1.14
0.83
0.83
0.30
1.50
vs Similar (8)
1.50
1.25
1.33
1.33
1.60
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Moreirense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
André Luis40%
Madson de Souza Silva20%
Hernani Infande20%
Matheus Aiás11%
Maracás10%
João Camacho10%
Alan9%
Marcelo8%
André Castro7%
Pedro Aparício7%
Vinicius Mingotti6%
Gonçalo Franco6%
Fabiano Silva4%
Lawrence Ofori3%
Godfried Frimpong3%
Kobamelo Kodisang3%
Kewin0%
Carlos Ponck0%
Caio0%
Pedro Amador0%
Rúben Ramos Ismael0%
Dinis Pinto0%
Luís Asué0%
Wallisson Luiz0%
Jeremy Antonisse0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Macedo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lawrence Ofori29%
Rúben Ramos Ismael28%
Wallisson Luiz27%
André Luis27%
Dinis Pinto23%
Gonçalo Franco21%
Jeremy Antonisse21%
Fabiano Silva20%
Maracás17%
João Camacho17%
Marcelo15%
Alan15%
Carlos Ponck13%
Pedro Aparício13%
Vinicius Mingotti12%
Madson de Souza Silva8%
André Castro7%
Luís Asué7%
Godfried Frimpong6%
Kewin3%
Caio0%
Pedro Amador0%
Kobamelo Kodisang0%
Matheus Aiás0%
Hernani Infande0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Macedo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Caio25%
Dinis Pinto15%
João Camacho14%
Gonçalo Franco12%
Alan12%
Fabiano Silva8%
André Castro7%
André Luis7%
Godfried Frimpong6%
Kobamelo Kodisang6%
Pedro Amador5%
Jeremy Antonisse4%
Madson de Souza Silva4%
Marcelo4%
Lawrence Ofori3%
Maracás0%
Kewin0%
Carlos Ponck0%
Matheus Aiás0%
Vinicius Mingotti0%
Rúben Ramos Ismael0%
Pedro Aparício0%
Luís Asué0%
Wallisson Luiz0%
Hernani Infande0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Macedo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rodrigo Macedo20%
João Camacho14%
André Luis13%
Madson de Souza Silva12%
Carlos Ponck7%
Luís Asué7%
Gonçalo Franco6%
Alan6%
Marcelo4%
Maracás0%
Kewin0%
Caio0%
Lawrence Ofori0%
Godfried Frimpong0%
Pedro Amador0%
André Castro0%
Kobamelo Kodisang0%
Matheus Aiás0%
Vinicius Mingotti0%
Rúben Ramos Ismael0%
Dinis Pinto0%
Pedro Aparício0%
Wallisson Luiz0%
Jeremy Antonisse0%
Fabiano Silva0%
Hernani Infande0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Boavista
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tiago Morais35%
Róbert Boženík19%
Bruno Lourenço16%
Vincent Sasso12%
Salvador Agra10%
Miguel Reisinho10%
Pedro Malheiro9%
Joel Silva7%
Rodrigo Abascal7%
Gaius Makouta7%
Martim Tavares5%
Ilija Vukotić4%
Masaki Watai0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Chidozie Awaziem0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Jeriel De Santis0%
João Gonçalves0%
Luís Santos0%
Bruno Onyemaechi0%
Berna0%
Machado0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sebastián Pérez46%
Pedro Malheiro35%
Gaius Makouta30%
Rodrigo Abascal28%
Chidozie Awaziem25%
Salvador Agra23%
Miguel Reisinho23%
Ilija Vukotić18%
Vincent Sasso18%
Tiago Morais18%
Jeriel De Santis17%
Luís Santos16%
Filipe Ferreira15%
Róbert Boženík13%
Bruno Lourenço12%
Bruno Onyemaechi12%
João Gonçalves12%
Berna11%
Joel Silva7%
Ibrahima Camará7%
Martim Tavares5%
Masaki Watai0%
Machado0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tiago Morais12%
Martim Tavares9%
Pedro Malheiro9%
Gaius Makouta7%
Miguel Reisinho6%
Róbert Boženík6%
Luís Santos5%
Chidozie Awaziem4%
Bruno Onyemaechi4%
Filipe Ferreira4%
Salvador Agra3%
Bruno Lourenço3%
Masaki Watai0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Vincent Sasso0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Jeriel De Santis0%
João Gonçalves0%
Berna0%
Joel Silva0%
Machado0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Róbert Boženík42%
Tiago Morais6%
Martim Tavares5%
Pedro Malheiro4%
Rodrigo Abascal3%
Bruno Lourenço3%
Masaki Watai0%
Salvador Agra0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Vincent Sasso0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Gaius Makouta0%
Miguel Reisinho0%
Chidozie Awaziem0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Jeriel De Santis0%
João Gonçalves0%
Luís Santos0%
Bruno Onyemaechi0%
Berna0%
Joel Silva0%
Machado0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Sporting CP
Benfica
FC Porto
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Arouca
Famalicao
Casa Pia
Farense
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
Estoril
Estrela
Portimonense
Vizela
Chaves
AVS