Moreirense’s defensive record at home is modest, conceding 1.5 goals per match against similar opposition, while Marítimo’s away defense has allowed 1.22 goals on the road. The model sees a tight, low-scoring affair with a 40% chance of a home win, 33% for a draw and 27% for an away win, making a home victory the favourite result. The average goal output is 2.1, with the most probable total being two goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7% chance. Moreirense typically scores 0.75 goals at home and Marítimo averages 0.67 away, both against similar-strength teams. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 99.6%, Over 21.5 fouls at 98.7%, Over 23.5 fouls at 96.7%, Over 25.5 fouls at 92.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 89.4%, Under 3.5 at 84.3%, Over 3.5 cards at 76.7% and Over 8.5 corners at 74.1%. The match is expected to be a cautious, evenly matched contest.
Results analysis
Moreirense’s win-streak was halted as the match finished 1-1, a draw that surprised the model’s pre-match favourite. The Pythia model had tipped a home win with a 40% probability, but the result proved wrong. The game delivered on every one of the model’s other selections: the Over 19.5 fouls hit at 99.6%, Over 21.5 fouls at 98.7%, Over 23.5 fouls at 96.7%, Over 25.5 fouls at 92.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 89.4%, Under 3.5 cards at 84.3%, Over 3.5 cards at 76.7% and Over 8.5 corners at 74.1%. Moreirense entered the match on a win, while Maritimo came off a defeat, yet neither side could secure victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Moreirense win✗ Miss
40.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maritimo win✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Moreirense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.40
0.86
1.07
0.81
1.69
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.75
1.33
1.33
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.30
0.75
1.50
1.17
1.17
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
1.25
0.25
0.25
0.75
1.75
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maritimo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.93
1.47
0.53
0.77
1.46
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.71
1.33
1.33
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.14
0.68
1.46
0.31
0.67
1.22
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.7%
Under 1.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.4%
Under 2.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.7%
Under 3.5
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.5%
No
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.7%
0-0
13.9%
1-0
13.3%
0-1
10.1%
2-0
8.5%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
5.2%
Moreirense goals ↓
Maritimo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
10%
5.2%
1.6%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.1%
1.8%
0.4%
2
8.5%
7.7%
3.5%
1.1%
0.2%
3
3.3%
3.0%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.0%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moreirense goals (down), columns = Maritimo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Benfica
2.38
Sporting CP
2.29
SC Braga
2.21
Rio Ave
1.50
Maritimo
1.38
Chaves
1.38
Boavista
1.32
Guimaraes
1.26
Tondela
1.12
Portimonense
1.12
Belenenses
1.09
Aves
1.00
Moreirense
0.94
Setubal
0.94
Feirense
0.91
Estoril
0.88
Pacos Ferreira
0.88
Moreirense is 0.44 points worse than Maritimo in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
2.18
Sporting CP
1.85
Portimonense
1.53
Chaves
1.38
Guimaraes
1.32
Tondela
1.21
Rio Ave
1.18
Setubal
1.15
Maritimo
1.06
Aves
1.06
Boavista
1.03
Belenenses
0.97
Pacos Ferreira
0.97
Feirense
0.94
Estoril
0.85
Moreirense
0.85
Moreirense is 0.21 goals worse than Maritimo in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Benfica
0.65
Sporting CP
0.71
SC Braga
0.85
Rio Ave
1.24
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.35
Feirense
1.41
Maritimo
1.44
Tondela
1.47
Moreirense
1.47
Aves
1.50
Chaves
1.62
Guimaraes
1.65
Pacos Ferreira
1.74
Portimonense
1.76
Estoril
1.79
Setubal
1.82
Moreirense is 0.03 goals worse than Maritimo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Moreirense
For 4.5 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 14.7 · Total 29.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maritimo
For 3.7 · Against 6.1 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.9 · Against 16.0 · Total 32.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Moreirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.8
10.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
31.6
36.6
28.0
vs Stronger (11)
12.7
11.0
16.0
1.3
2.0
0.4
34.7
41.5
21.0
vs Similar (20)
10.3
10.0
11.0
0.7
0.8
0.5
19.7
29.5
0.0
vs Weaker (19)
9.2
12.0
8.6
1.3
0.4
1.9
36.0
41.0
35.0
% over line
58%
80%
43%
16%
12%
19%
83%
100%
71%
% under line
42%
20%
57%
84%
88%
81%
17%
0%
29%
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maritimo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
8.7
11.4
1.1
1.0
1.1
32.8
31.9
34.2
vs Stronger (13)
13.0
12.0
14.0
0.7
0.4
1.0
32.5
29.0
36.0
vs Similar (36)
9.1
7.8
10.8
1.1
1.1
1.2
33.2
32.8
33.8
vs Weaker (1)
10.0
10.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
30.0
30.0
-
% over line
50%
43%
60%
16%
15%
17%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
57%
40%
84%
85%
83%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Chaves
12.8
Benfica
12.0
Feirense
11.7
Guimaraes
11.3
Estoril
10.8
Boavista
10.8
FC Porto
10.5
Sporting CP
10.5
SC Braga
10.4
Moreirense
10.3
Pacos Ferreira
10.3
Belenenses
9.8
Maritimo
9.8
Portimonense
9.8
Setubal
9.5
Rio Ave
9.2
Tondela
9.1
Aves
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Pacos Ferreira
5.8
Feirense
5.4
FC Porto
5.4
Rio Ave
5.3
Estoril
5.2
Setubal
5.2
Tondela
5.2
Guimaraes
4.9
Belenenses
4.8
Sporting CP
4.7
SC Braga
4.6
Maritimo
4.5
Aves
4.5
Chaves
4.2
Moreirense
4.2
Boavista
4.2
Benfica
4.0
Portimonense
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Belenenses
34.9
Rio Ave
33.9
Feirense
33.8
Sporting CP
33.2
Tondela
33.0
Maritimo
32.8
Guimaraes
32.1
Estoril
32.1
Setubal
32.1
SC Braga
32.0
Moreirense
31.6
Benfica
31.0
Aves
30.5
Chaves
30.4
Pacos Ferreira
29.7
Boavista
29.4
FC Porto
28.7
Portimonense
28.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
62.7%
Under 9.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
76.7%
Under 3.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
98.7%
Under 21.5
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Moreirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.83
0.50
0.43
0.31
1.19
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.88
0.83
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.90
0.25
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
0.25
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.25
1.12
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maritimo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.71
0.29
0.46
0.85
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.43
0.67
1.00
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.27
0.62
0.15
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Moreirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.36
0.64
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.88
0.50
0.83
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.75
0.67
0.17
vs Weaker (12)
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maritimo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.40
0.76
0.24
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.29
0.67
0.33
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.41
0.85
0.15
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Moreirense · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nile John33%
João Veloso33%
Kiko33%
André Ferreira0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nile John67%
Kiko67%
Guilherme Liberato33%
Gilberto Batista33%
Rodrigo Alonso33%
Leandro Santos33%
André Ferreira0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
João Veloso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexandre Parsemain33%
João Veloso33%
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
João Veloso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Maritimo · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Simo Bouzaidi33%
Paulo Henrique25%
Raphael Guzzo25%
Adrián Butzke25%
Maurice Boakye25%
Martín Tejón25%
Igor Julião0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Raphael Guzzo75%
Igor Julião50%
Adrián Butzke25%
Paulo Henrique0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Martín Tejón0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martín Tejón25%
Igor Julião0%
Paulo Henrique0%
Raphael Guzzo0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paulo Henrique50%
Martín Tejón50%
Igor Julião0%
Raphael Guzzo0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
RA (26)
€37m
MOR (21)
€22m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
Moreirense's squad is €6m more valuable than Maritimo's (€22m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
MOR (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
Moreirense's attack is €2m less valuable than Maritimo's (€5m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
MAR (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Moreirense's midfield is €6m more valuable than Maritimo's (€8m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
RA (13)
€21m
GUI (13)
€12m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
CHA (12)
€4m
FEI (8)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
Moreirense's defence is €3m more valuable than Maritimo's (€9m vs €6m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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FC Porto
Benfica
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Rio Ave
Chaves
Boavista
Guimaraes
Portimonense
Tondela
Belenenses
Feirense
Pacos Ferreira
Estoril