This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.30
1.57
1.43
1.31
1.19
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.83
1.00
3.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (24)
1.54
0.92
1.73
0.82
1.38
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.0%
@ 1.85+4.9%
Under 2.5
44.0%
@ 1.93-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.2%
No
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
1-2 ✓
9.9%
0-2
9.4%
0-1
9.0%
0-0
6.4%
1-3
6.2%
0-3
5.9%
2-1
5.6%
Moreirense goals ↓
SC Braga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
9.0%
9.4%
5.9%
2.7%
1
4.6%
12%
9.9%
6.2%
2.9%
2
3.0%
5.6%
5.2%
3.3%
1.5%
3
1.0%
2.0%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moreirense goals (down), columns = SC Braga goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.41
Benfica
2.26
SC Braga
1.76
Sporting CP
1.76
Rio Ave
1.62
Famalicao
1.59
Guimaraes
1.47
GIL Vicente
1.26
Santa Clara
1.26
Moreirense
1.26
Maritimo
1.15
Boavista
1.15
Pacos Ferreira
1.15
Tondela
1.06
Belenenses
1.03
Setubal
1.00
Portimonense
0.97
Aves
0.50
Moreirense is 0.50 points worse than SC Braga in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.18
Benfica
2.09
SC Braga
1.79
Famalicao
1.56
Guimaraes
1.56
Sporting CP
1.44
Rio Ave
1.41
Moreirense
1.24
GIL Vicente
1.18
Santa Clara
1.06
Pacos Ferreira
1.06
Maritimo
1.00
Tondela
0.88
Portimonense
0.88
Boavista
0.82
Belenenses
0.79
Setubal
0.79
Aves
0.71
Moreirense is 0.56 goals worse than SC Braga in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.65
Benfica
0.76
Sporting CP
1.00
Rio Ave
1.06
Guimaraes
1.12
Boavista
1.15
SC Braga
1.18
Santa Clara
1.21
Maritimo
1.24
Setubal
1.26
Tondela
1.29
GIL Vicente
1.29
Moreirense
1.29
Portimonense
1.32
Famalicao
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.53
Belenenses
1.59
Aves
2.00
Moreirense is 0.12 goals worse than SC Braga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Moreirense
For 4.6 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 3.4 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 15.1 · Total 30.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Braga
For 7.2 · Against 4.4 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 4.0 · Total 6.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 15.3 · Total 29.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Moreirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
11.0
9.6
4.9
5.3
4.5
32.1
32.5
31.8
vs Stronger (11)
10.5
11.2
9.8
4.5
4.4
4.7
27.0
26.6
27.3
vs Similar (22)
10.3
11.0
9.8
5.0
5.4
4.6
32.6
33.9
31.5
vs Weaker (17)
10.1
10.9
9.1
5.1
5.7
4.4
34.8
34.2
35.5
% over line
58%
62%
54%
68%
71%
65%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
42%
38%
46%
32%
29%
35%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.0
10.7
5.1
4.8
5.4
30.3
30.2
30.3
vs Stronger (9)
10.2
9.2
11.0
6.0
5.2
6.6
31.0
27.5
33.8
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (41)
10.4
10.1
10.6
5.0
4.8
5.1
30.1
30.8
29.5
% over line
58%
58%
58%
70%
62%
77%
86%
83%
88%
% under line
42%
42%
42%
30%
38%
23%
14%
17%
12%
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Aves
12.0
Guimaraes
11.7
Santa Clara
11.4
Boavista
11.3
Pacos Ferreira
11.3
Famalicao
10.9
Tondela
10.7
Sporting CP
10.6
Setubal
10.4
SC Braga
10.3
Maritimo
10.3
Moreirense
10.3
Benfica
10.2
Rio Ave
10.2
FC Porto
9.8
GIL Vicente
9.5
Portimonense
9.4
Belenenses
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Sporting CP
6.5
Boavista
6.1
Setubal
6.0
Famalicao
5.8
Rio Ave
5.7
Pacos Ferreira
5.7
Tondela
5.7
Benfica
5.5
Maritimo
5.4
Aves
5.2
SC Braga
5.1
FC Porto
5.1
Santa Clara
5.0
Moreirense
4.9
Portimonense
4.8
GIL Vicente
4.7
Guimaraes
4.7
Belenenses
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Boavista
34.8
GIL Vicente
34.7
Setubal
34.6
Rio Ave
33.9
Pacos Ferreira
32.9
Tondela
32.7
Aves
32.3
Maritimo
32.2
FC Porto
32.1
Moreirense
32.1
Belenenses
31.3
Guimaraes
31.0
Famalicao
30.9
Portimonense
30.8
Santa Clara
30.8
SC Braga
30.3
Sporting CP
30.2
Benfica
27.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
64.5%
Under 9.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
85.2%
Under 3.5
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
96.5%
Under 21.5
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Moreirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.80
0.60
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.50
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.57
0.43
0.69
0.56
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (24)
0.67
0.42
0.55
0.36
0.77
0.46
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Moreirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.53
0.87
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.86
0.50
0.67
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
2.00
0.33
3.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (24)
0.88
0.50
1.18
0.45
0.62
0.54
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 4.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Moreirense · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nile John33%
João Veloso33%
Kiko33%
André Ferreira0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nile John67%
Kiko67%
Guilherme Liberato33%
Gilberto Batista33%
Rodrigo Alonso33%
Leandro Santos33%
André Ferreira0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
João Veloso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexandre Parsemain33%
João Veloso33%
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
João Veloso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
SC Braga · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Diego Rodrigues67%
Pau Víctor50%
Fran Navarro25%
João Moutinho0%
Vítor Carvalho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Demir Ege Tıknaz0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fran Navarro25%
João Moutinho25%
Vítor Carvalho25%
Pau Víctor25%
Demir Ege Tıknaz25%
Diogo Travassos25%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vítor Carvalho25%
Gabriel Silva25%
Demir Ege Tıknaz25%
Mario Dorgeles25%
Fran Navarro0%
João Moutinho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Pau Víctor0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fran Navarro0%
João Moutinho0%
Vítor Carvalho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Pau Víctor0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Demir Ege Tıknaz0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
POR (20)
€6m
PF (13)
€2m
Moreirense's squad is €143m less valuable than SC Braga's (€22m vs €165m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
GV (12)
€11m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
MOR (5)
€5m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
PF (3)
€1m
Moreirense's attack is €36m less valuable than SC Braga's (€5m vs €41m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
SC (5)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Moreirense's midfield is €47m less valuable than SC Braga's (€8m vs €56m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
GV (10)
€11m
MOR (8)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
Moreirense's defence is €59m less valuable than SC Braga's (€9m vs €68m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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FC Porto
Benfica
Sporting CP
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Guimaraes
GIL Vicente
Santa Clara
Maritimo
Boavista
Pacos Ferreira
Tondela
Belenenses
Portimonense