Mornar is predicted to win this match, with a 57% chance of a home victory. The overall shape of the match is expected to be a low-scoring, closely contested affair, with an average of 2.3 goals expected. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 to Mornar, with a 15% probability.
Mornar has a strong home record, scoring an average of 1.54 goals and conceding 0.54 goals against similar opponents. Arsenal Tivat, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring 0.77 goals and conceding 1.31 goals against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals, with an 80.6% probability of hitting. The suggested picks from the model are the Under 3.5 goals, with a 80.6% probability, the Home win, with a 57% probability, and the Draw, with a 28% probability. The home win percentage is 57%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 16%.
Results analysis
Mornar's unbeaten streak has extended to six matches, with their last five results reading DDWDD, following a draw against Arsenal Tivat. The surprise draw has seen them level on points with their opponents, who were coming off a draw themselves. In a low-scoring encounter, the final score was 0-0, with the actual result being a draw. The pre-match favourite, Mornar, did not come through as expected, with their model pick being wrong. The model had predicted a home win, but the probability of this outcome was only 57%. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with an 80.6% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mornar win✗ Miss
56.7%
Avg Implied 57.0% · @ 1.59
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Draw✓ Hit
27.7%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.34
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Betano
3.45
Dafabet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Arsenal Tivat win✗ Miss
15.7%
Avg Implied 15.9% · @ 5.70
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.12
Marathonbet
6.00
Pinnacle
5.83
William Hil
5.80
Dafabet
5.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mornar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.57
1.73
0.53
1.07
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.33
0.56
1.54
0.54
1.14
0.57
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
3.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tivat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.30
0.86
1.00
0.94
1.56
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.50
0.67
0.33
1.67
2.67
vs Similar (24)
0.83
1.25
0.91
1.18
0.77
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.2%
@ 1.43+3.4%
Under 1.5
32.8%
@ 2.53-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Under
Superbet
2.62
Pinnacle
2.56
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.52
BetVictor
2.49
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.5%
@ 2.32-0.2%
Under 2.5
60.5%
@ 1.53+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
Superbet
2.35
Bet365
2.35
Marathonbet
2.34
1xBet
2.34
Under
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.4%
@ 4.29-1.9%
Under 3.5
80.6%
@ 1.16+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.75
Marathonbet
4.33
1xBet
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Betano
3.75
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.1%
@ 2.26+0.7%
No
58.9%
@ 1.53-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
Betano
2.20
No
William Hil
1.57
Superbet
1.55
1xBet
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Betano
1.52
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.0%@ 4.68+6.0%
2-0
12.6%@ 5.99+5.6%
1-1
12.6%@ 6.63+6.2%
0-0 ✓
11.5%@ 6.74+5.3%
2-1
8.9%@ 8.29+3.8%
3-0
6.5%@ 10.64+2.6%
0-1
6.2%@ 10.54+2.2%
3-1
4.6%@ 14.71+1.8%
Mornar goals ↓
Arsenal Tivat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
6.2%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
1
15%
13%
4.0%
1.0%
0.2%
2
13%
8.9%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
3
6.5%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.6%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mornar goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tivat goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
0.80
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Mornar is 1.20 points better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Mornar is 1.13 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Mornar is 0.27 goals worse than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 0.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mornar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.20
0.67
0.27
0.53
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.19
0.69
0.23
0.57
0.14
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tivat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.53
0.36
0.50
0.31
0.56
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.33
0.58
0.45
0.64
0.23
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mornar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
1.07
0.27
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.37
0.85
0.31
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tivat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.50
0.50
0.62
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.17
0.67
0.33
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.67
0.45
0.55
0.54
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.6%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+1.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Mornar's squad is €2m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€4m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Mornar and Arsenal Tivat have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Mornar and Arsenal Tivat have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Mornar's defence is €2m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€2m vs €0m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dečić
Bokelj
Otrant-Olympic
Petrovac
Buducnost Podgorica
Jezero
Sutjeska
Mladost DG