Mornar vs Buducnost Podgorica Result & Analysis

The contest between Mornar and Buducnost Podgorica is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are slim. The probability of a Mornar victory sits at 38%, a draw at 31%, and an away win at 31%. The expected total of goals is 2.3, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 14.6% chance. Mornar, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, while Buducnost Podgorica on the road averages 0.71 scored and 1.43 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 goals at 80.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.1%, and Under 11.5 corners at 70.3%. Both sides have shown resilience in recent form, Mornar unbeaten in their last five and Buducnost coming off a draw. The match is poised for a closely contested encounter, with the home side just edging the odds.

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Home win, with a 38% probability, failed to deliver. Mornar’s 0-2 defeat meant the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 0-2 confirmed an Away win, a result that matched the model’s predicted 31% chance for an away victory. The model’s single suggested pick, Under 3.5 with an 80.8% probability, hit, as the match produced only two goals. Mornar had been unbeaten in their last five, yet they could not convert that form into a win, while Buducnost Podgorica, coming off a draw, capitalised on the opportunity.