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Mornar vs Dečić Result & Analysis

Date: 26/04/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 0-2
Mornar
Mornar
Vs
33%
37%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mornar win✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
36.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dečić win✓ Hit
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MornarMornar

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D02L12L11D10W20W11D26L01L03LH·JED26/02A·DEČ02/03H·BUD08/03A·SUT12/03H·ARS16/03A·BOK29/03H·PET02/04A·OTR06/04H·JEZ12/04A·JED20/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.501.201.071.131.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.191.461.231.001.151.92
vs Weaker (4)1.001.751.001.501.002.00
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DečićDečić

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W02L12L11D10W00D11D01L01L10WH·MOR02/03A·OTR08/03H·JEZ12/03A·JED16/03A·BOK24/03A·PET29/03H·BUD02/04H·SUT06/04A·ARS12/04H·BOK20/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.831.000.750.790.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.780.850.800.800.750.92
vs Weaker (3)2.000.674.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%20%028%128%215%36%42%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
52.0%
Under 1.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
24.3%
Under 2.5
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
9.3%
Under 3.5
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
34.0%
No
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
19.6%
1-0
14.7%
1-1
14.5%
0-1
13.7%
2-0
7.0%
0-2 ✓
6.2%
2-1
5.8%
1-2
5.4%
Mornar goals ↓
Dečić goals →
01234
020%14%6.2%1.7%0.3%
115%15%5.4%1.5%0.3%
27.0%5.8%2.4%0.7%0.1%
32.0%1.7%0.7%0.2%0.0%
40.4%0.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mornar goals (down), columns = Dečić goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.36
Petrovac
1.67
Sutjeska
1.42
Dečić
1.33
Bokelj
1.22
Mornar
1.22
Arsenal Tivat
1.21
Jedinstvo
1.19
Jezero
1.18
Otrant-Olympic
0.97
Lovćen
0.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Mornar is 0.11 points worse than Dečić in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.50
Petrovac
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.25
Otrant-Olympic
1.19
Sutjeska
1.11
Mornar
1.11
Jezero
0.97
Arsenal Tivat
0.95
Dečić
0.94
Bokelj
0.86
Lovćen
0.00
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Mornar is 0.17 goals better than Dečić in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Buducnost Podgorica
0.81
Dečić
0.86
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.00
Petrovac
1.03
Sutjeska
1.06
Jezero
1.16
Arsenal Tivat
1.24
Bokelj
1.39
Otrant-Olympic
1.47
Mornar
1.47
Jedinstvo
1.61
Lovćen
2.00
Mornar is 0.61 goals worse than Dečić in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 0.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MornarMornar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D00D01L00D00D00D11D10W01L01LH·JED26/02A·DEČ02/03H·BUD08/03A·SUT12/03H·ARS16/03A·BOK29/03H·PET02/04A·OTR06/04H·JEZ12/04A·JED20/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.630.530.670.270.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.350.580.540.620.150.54
vs Weaker (4)0.751.000.501.001.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DečićDečić

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D00D10W10W00D10W00D00D00DH·MOR02/03A·OTR08/03H·JEZ12/03A·JED16/03A·BOK24/03A·PET29/03H·BUD02/04H·SUT06/04A·ARS12/04H·BOK20/04
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.230.440.310.290.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.300.260.400.330.170.17
vs Weaker (3)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MornarMornar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D02L11D11D10W20W00D16L00D02LH·JED26/02A·DEČ02/03H·BUD08/03A·SUT12/03H·ARS16/03A·BOK29/03H·PET02/04A·OTR06/04H·JEZ12/04A·JED20/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.870.670.400.871.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.850.880.690.381.001.38
vs Weaker (4)0.250.750.500.500.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DečićDečić

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W02L12L01L00D00D01L01L01L10WH·MOR02/03A·OTR08/03H·JEZ12/03A·JED16/03A·BOK24/03A·PET29/03H·BUD02/04H·SUT06/04A·ARS12/04H·BOK20/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.600.560.440.500.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.480.590.400.470.580.75
vs Weaker (3)1.000.673.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.590.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 2.575.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
Mornar and Dečić have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Mornar and Dečić have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Mornar and Dečić have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Mornar and Dečić have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
MOR wins
3
Draws
4
DEČ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mornar vs Dečić · H/A from MOR
DateH/AGameScore
02/03/25ADečić Vs MOR2-0
23/10/24HMOR Vs Dečić1-1
21/08/24ADečić Vs MOR1-0
27/04/24HMOR Vs Dečić1-1
03/03/24ADečić Vs MOR0-1
28/10/23HMOR Vs Dečić0-1
20/08/23ADečić Vs MOR3-1
05/04/23ADečić Vs MOR1-1

MornarMornar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/04/25AJedinstvo Vs MOR3-0
12/04/25HMOR Vs Jezero0-1
06/04/25AOtrant-Olympic Vs MOR6-2
02/04/25HMOR Vs Petrovac1-1
29/03/25ABokelj Vs MOR0-2
16/03/25HMOR Vs Arsenal Tivat1-0
12/03/25ASutjeska Vs MOR1-1
08/03/25HMOR Vs Buducnost Podgorica1-2
02/03/25ADečić Vs MOR2-0
26/02/25HMOR Vs Jedinstvo1-1

DečićDečić

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/04/25HDEČ Vs Bokelj1-0
12/04/25AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ1-0
06/04/25HDEČ Vs Sutjeska0-1
02/04/25HDEČ Vs Buducnost Podgorica1-1
29/03/25APetrovac Vs DEČ0-0
24/03/25ABokelj Vs DEČ0-1
16/03/25AJedinstvo Vs DEČ1-1
12/03/25HDEČ Vs Jezero1-2
08/03/25AOtrant-Olympic Vs DEČ2-0
02/03/25HDEČ Vs Mornar2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLL1.50
HomeDLWDL1.72
AwayLDWLL1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%48%36%
AVG goals2.502.202.80
Over 1.5 %72%68%76%
Over 2.5 %42%36%48%
Over 3.5 %18%12%24%
Scored1.221.361.08
Conceded1.280.841.72
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet28%36%20%
Corners8.5011.006.00
Cards5.003.007.00
Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLW1.52
HomeWLDLW1.64
AwayLDWDL1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%44%32%
AVG goals1.861.801.92
Over 1.5 %62%56%68%
Over 2.5 %24%28%20%
Over 3.5 %14%16%12%
Scored1.081.121.04
Conceded0.780.680.88
BTTS40%36%44%
Clean Sheet46%52%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3685
72%
2.4
9029+61
3.3
89%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1122.50.8
-
2PetrovacPetrovac3660
47%
1.7
5037+13
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.0
-
3SutjeskaSutjeska3651
39%
1.4
4038+2
2.2
75%
33%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.1
-
4DečićDečić3648
28%
1.3
3431+3
1.8
58%
22%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.90.9
-
5Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3846
29%
1.2
3647-11
2.2
66%
37%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.91.2
-
6JezeroJezero3845
29%
1.2
3744-7
2.1
63%
32%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.2
-
7MornarMornar3644
33%
1.2
4053-13
2.6
83%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.11.5
-
8BokeljBokelj3644
36%
1.2
3150-19
2.2
64%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.4
-
9JedinstvoJedinstvo3643
31%
1.2
4558-13
2.9
81%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic3635
25%
1.0
4353-10
2.7
67%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.5
-
11LovćenLovćen21
0%
0.5
04-4
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
12Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)20
0%
0.0
02-2
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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