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Mornar vs Otrant-Olympic Prediction & Stats

Date: 14/09/2026
Time: 17:00
Mornar
Mornar
Vs
52%
27%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Otrant-Olympic
Otrant-Olympic
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Mornar are tipped to win, a 52% chance against a 27% draw and 21% for Otrant-Olympic, and the model favours a 1-1 finish with a 13% probability. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly open game, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 27% of the time. Mornar’s home form shows they average 1.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded against similar opposition, while Otrant-Olympic, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. The match is underpinned by a series of high-probability selections: Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Under 5.5 (95.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.1%), Home +2 handicap (92.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.8%) and Under 4.5 (88.3%). Mornar’s recent five-match run of WWDDW, highlighted by a 2-1 win over Buducnost Podgorica, and Otrant-Olympic’s five-match sequence of LWDLW, ending in a 0-3 loss to Dečić, set the stage for a competitive encounter.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mornar win
51.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic win
20.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MornarMornar

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D20W00D00D32W21W11D20WH·BOK10/05A·BUD16/05H·PET20/05A·JEZ24/05A·JEZ02/08H·ARS07/08A·MLA16/08H·BUD21/08A·PET29/08H·BOK03/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.470.601.730.471.200.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.410.591.540.461.290.71
vs Weaker (3)2.000.673.000.500.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W10W22D42W20W12L00D41W03L21WA·IGA02/05H·MLA10/05A·ISK16/05H·GRB20/05A·KOM24/05A·MLA02/08H·PET09/08A·SUT15/08H·DEČ23/08A·ARS30/08← Second LeagueFirst League →
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.002.291.001.811.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)2.190.942.431.002.000.89
vs Weaker (14)1.861.072.141.001.571.14
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.2%
Under 2.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
11.6%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.2%
0-1
6.3%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.4%
Mornar goals ↓
Otrant-Olympic goals →
01234
09.2%6.3%3.5%1.1%0.3%
112%13%5.5%1.7%0.4%
210%9.5%4.4%1.4%0.3%
35.4%5.0%2.3%0.7%0.2%
42.1%2.0%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mornar goals (down), columns = Otrant-Olympic goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Sutjeska
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Mornar is 0.60 points better than Otrant-Olympic in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Mornar is 0.07 goals worse than Otrant-Olympic in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.40).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Mornar is 0.73 goals better than Otrant-Olympic in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.40).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mornar or Draw
79.1%
Avg Implied -
52%
27%
21%
covers Mornar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mornar or Otrant-Olympic
72.5%
Avg Implied -
52%
27%
21%
covers Mornar + Otrant-Olympic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Otrant-Olympic
48.4%
Avg Implied -
52%
27%
21%
covers Draw + Otrant-Olympic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mornar over/under 0.5
Over
79.7%
Under
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5
Over
47.3%
Under
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 3.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5
Over
60.6%
Under
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Mornar, so a minus line means Mornar give that many goals of a start and Otrant-Olympic receive them. At -1, Mornar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mornar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mornar)
Mornar -2
11.7%
Draw -2
16.2%
Otrant-Olympic +2
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mornar)
Mornar -1
27.9%
Draw -1
23.7%
Otrant-Olympic +1
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mornar)
Mornar +1
79.1%
Draw +1
13.4%
Otrant-Olympic -1
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mornar)
Mornar +2
92.5%
Draw +2
5.6%
Otrant-Olympic -2
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MornarMornar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D10W00D00D22D20W10W20WH·BOK10/05A·BUD16/05H·PET20/05A·JEZ24/05A·JEZ02/08H·ARS07/08A·MLA16/08H·BUD21/08A·PET29/08H·BOK03/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.270.730.270.730.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.780.260.770.230.790.29
vs Weaker (3)0.330.330.500.500.000.00
Clean sheet %77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W01L22D10W10W00D21W00D11DA·IGA02/05H·MLA10/05A·ISK16/05H·GRB20/05A·KOM24/05A·MLA02/08H·PET09/08A·SUT15/08H·DEČ23/08A·ARS30/08← Second LeagueFirst League →
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.331.290.210.880.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.190.251.430.001.000.44
vs Weaker (14)0.930.431.140.430.710.43
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MornarMornar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D11D10W00D00D10W01L01L00DH·BOK10/05A·BUD16/05H·PET20/05A·JEZ24/05A·JEZ02/08H·ARS07/08A·MLA16/08H·BUD21/08A·PET29/08H·BOK03/09
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.331.000.200.470.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.630.330.770.230.500.43
vs Weaker (3)1.670.332.500.000.001.00
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D21W20W10W02L00D20W03L10WA·IGA02/05H·MLA10/05A·ISK16/05H·GRB20/05A·KOM24/05A·MLA02/08H·PET09/08A·SUT15/08H·DEČ23/08A·ARS30/08← Second LeagueFirst League →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.671.000.790.940.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.000.691.001.001.000.44
vs Weaker (14)0.930.641.000.570.860.71
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.6%-------
Under 6.598.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.5%-------
Under 5.595.6%-------
Away under 2.5 goals93.2%-------
Home +2 handicap92.5%-------
Home under 3.5 goals92.2%-------
Under 4.588.8%-------
Home over 0.5 goals79.7%-------
Home or Draw79.1%-------
Home +1 handicap79.1%-------
Home under 2.5 goals78.5%-------
Away under 1.5 goals76.1%-------
Under 3.575.2%-------
Over 1.573.0%-------
Home or Away72.5%-------
Away +2 handicap72.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Mornar's squad is €2m more valuable than Otrant-Olympic's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Mornar and Otrant-Olympic have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Mornar and Otrant-Olympic have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Mornar's defence is €2m more valuable than Otrant-Olympic's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
MOR wins
0
Draws
2
OTR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mornar vs Otrant-Olympic · H/A from MOR
DateH/AGameScore
06/04/25AOtrant-Olympic Vs MOR6-2
07/12/24HMOR Vs Otrant-Olympic1-0
02/10/24AOtrant-Olympic Vs MOR1-2
04/08/24HMOR Vs Otrant-Olympic0-1

MornarMornar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26HMOR Vs Bokelj2-0
29/08/26APetrovac Vs MOR1-1
21/08/26HMOR Vs Buducnost Podgorica2-1
16/08/26AMladost DG Vs MOR2-3
07/08/26HMOR Vs Arsenal Tivat0-0
02/08/26AJezero Vs MOR0-0
24/05/26AJezero Vs MOR0-2
20/05/26HMOR Vs Petrovac1-1
16/05/26ABuducnost Podgorica Vs MOR0-0
10/05/26HMOR Vs Bokelj0-0

Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26AArsenal Tivat Vs OTR1-2
23/08/26HOTR Vs Dečić0-3
15/08/26ASutjeska Vs OTR1-4
09/08/26HOTR Vs Petrovac0-0
02/08/26AMladost DG Vs OTR2-1
24/05/26AKom Vs OTR0-2
20/05/26HOTR Vs Grbalj4-2
16/05/26AIskra (Montenegro) Vs OTR2-2
10/05/26HOTR Vs Mladost Lješkopolje1-0
02/05/26AIgalo Vs OTR0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDW1.76
HomeDDDWW1.96
AwayDWDWD1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%56%44%
AVG goals2.242.322.16
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %46%48%44%
Over 3.5 %14%20%8%
Scored1.321.561.08
Conceded0.920.761.08
BTTS44%44%44%
Clean Sheet40%44%36%
Corners---
Cards---
Otrant-Olympic
Otrant-Olympic
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLW1.92
HomeWWWDL2.08
AwayDWLWW1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%64%52%
AVG goals3.263.602.92
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %64%68%60%
Over 3.5 %38%44%32%
Scored2.222.601.84
Conceded1.041.001.08
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet34%36%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DečićDečić513
80%
2.6
81+7
1.8
60%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.60.2
-
2MornarMornar612
50%
2.0
84+4
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.30.7
-
3BokeljBokelj68
33%
1.3
23-1
0.8
17%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.30.5
-
4Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic57
40%
1.4
77+0
2.8
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.4
-
5PetrovacPetrovac56
20%
1.2
42+2
1.2
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.80.4
-
6Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica55
20%
1.0
24-2
1.2
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1120.40.8
-
7JezeroJezero55
20%
1.0
25-3
1.4
40%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.41.0
-
8SutjeskaSutjeska54
20%
0.8
67-1
2.6
40%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.4
-
9Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat54
0%
0.8
12-1
0.6
20%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.20.4
-
10Mladost DGMladost DG54
20%
0.8
510-5
3.0
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.02.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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