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Mornar vs Sutjeska Result & Analysis

Date: 30/07/2023
Time: 18:00
Final 1-1
Mornar
Mornar
Vs
25%
34%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sutjeska
Sutjeska
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mornar win✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
34.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska win✗ Miss
40.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MornarMornar

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L01L13L10W10W11D01L20W20W00DA·SUT15/04H·ARS23/04A·JED29/04H·JEZ07/05A·PET14/05A·ISK21/05H·BUD25/05H·BER30/05A·BER03/06A·PET22/07
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.971.000.710.811.19
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.731.050.700.800.751.25
vs Weaker (8)1.380.751.750.501.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SutjeskaSutjeska

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W22D30W21W21W10W10W11D10W20WA·ISK23/04H·BUD29/04A·DEČ07/05H·RUD14/05H·PET21/05A·ARS25/05H·COS13/07A·COS20/07A·JEZ23/07H·FC 27/07
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.930.972.131.131.730.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.720.891.700.801.751.00
vs Weaker (12)2.251.083.001.801.710.57
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%16%026%128%217%38%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
57.7%
Under 1.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.4%
Under 2.5
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.4%
Under 3.5
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
37.9%
No
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.4%
0-1
15.1%
1-1 ✓
14.5%
1-0
10.8%
0-2
9.0%
1-2
7.2%
2-1
5.3%
2-0
4.8%
Mornar goals ↓
Sutjeska goals →
01234
016%15%9.0%3.3%0.9%
111%14%7.2%2.6%0.7%
24.8%5.3%2.9%1.0%0.3%
31.3%1.4%0.8%0.3%0.1%
40.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mornar goals (down), columns = Sutjeska goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.00
Dečić
1.94
Mornar
1.78
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Sutjeska
1.47
Jezero
1.42
Petrovac
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.17
Jedinstvo
1.03
Mladost DG
0.92
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.75
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Mornar is 0.31 points better than Sutjeska in terms of average points per game (1.78 vs 1.47).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.83
Dečić
1.53
Otrant-Olympic
1.50
Sutjeska
1.28
Mornar
1.25
Jedinstvo
1.21
Arsenal Tivat
1.19
Petrovac
1.17
Jezero
1.14
Mladost DG
1.03
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.69
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Mornar is 0.03 goals worse than Sutjeska in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.28).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.75
Mornar
0.89
Sutjeska
1.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.00
Jezero
1.06
Petrovac
1.11
Buducnost Podgorica
1.19
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.50
Jedinstvo
1.50
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.50
Arsenal Tivat
1.61
Mladost DG
1.63
Mornar is 0.11 goals better than Sutjeska in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MornarMornar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D00D10W00D10W10W01L10W10W00DA·SUT15/04H·ARS23/04A·JED29/04H·JEZ07/05A·PET14/05A·ISK21/05H·BUD25/05H·BER30/05A·BER03/06A·PET22/07
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.300.290.290.440.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.270.360.100.300.420.42
vs Weaker (8)0.620.120.750.250.500.00
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SutjeskaSutjeska

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W20W10W00D00D00D01L10W10WA·ISK23/04H·BUD29/04A·DEČ07/05H·RUD14/05H·PET21/05A·ARS25/05H·COS13/07A·COS20/07A·JEZ23/07H·FC 27/07
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.270.800.400.870.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.720.220.500.201.000.25
vs Weaker (12)1.000.331.400.800.710.00
Clean sheet %77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MornarMornar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L03L10W00D01L00D10W10W00DA·SUT15/04H·ARS23/04A·JED29/04H·JEZ07/05A·PET14/05A·ISK21/05H·BUD25/05H·BER30/05A·BER03/06A·PET22/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.670.710.430.380.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.450.680.600.500.330.83
vs Weaker (8)0.750.621.000.250.501.00
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SutjeskaSutjeska

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W02L10W11D21W10W10W10W00D10WA·ISK23/04H·BUD29/04A·DEČ07/05H·RUD14/05H·PET21/05A·ARS25/05H·COS13/07A·COS20/07A·JEZ23/07H·FC 27/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.701.330.730.870.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.000.671.200.600.750.75
vs Weaker (12)1.250.751.601.001.000.57
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.587.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 2.570.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
Mornar's squad is €1m less valuable than Sutjeska's (€4m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Mornar's attack is €1m less valuable than Sutjeska's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
Mornar and Sutjeska have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
Mornar and Sutjeska have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
MOR wins
1
Draws
1
SUT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mornar vs Sutjeska · H/A from MOR
DateH/AGameScore
15/04/23ASutjeska Vs MOR4-1
23/02/23HMOR Vs Sutjeska3-2
16/10/22ASutjeska Vs MOR1-1
06/08/22HMOR Vs Sutjeska2-1

MornarMornar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/07/23APetrovac Vs MOR0-0
03/06/23ABerane Vs MOR0-2
30/05/23HMOR Vs Berane2-0
25/05/23HMOR Vs Buducnost Podgorica0-1
21/05/23AIskra (Montenegro) Vs MOR1-1
14/05/23APetrovac Vs MOR0-1
07/05/23HMOR Vs Jezero1-0
29/04/23AJedinstvo Vs MOR3-1
23/04/23HMOR Vs Arsenal Tivat0-1
15/04/23ASutjeska Vs MOR4-1

SutjeskaSutjeska

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/07/23HSUT Vs FC Santa Coloma2-0
23/07/23AJezero Vs SUT0-1
20/07/23ACosmos Vs SUT1-1
13/07/23HSUT Vs Cosmos1-0
25/05/23AArsenal Tivat Vs SUT0-1
21/05/23HSUT Vs Petrovac2-1
14/05/23HSUT Vs Rudar (Montenegro)2-1
07/05/23ADečić Vs SUT0-3
29/04/23HSUT Vs Buducnost Podgorica2-2
23/04/23AIskra (Montenegro) Vs SUT0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWD1.26
HomeWLWLW1.63
AwayLWDWD0.90
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%47%20%
AVG goals1.921.742.10
Over 1.5 %51%37%65%
Over 2.5 %31%26%35%
Over 3.5 %18%16%20%
Scored0.871.000.75
Conceded1.050.741.35
BTTS38%26%50%
Clean Sheet38%47%30%
Corners---
Cards---
Sutjeska
Sutjeska
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW1.84
HomeDWWWW2.14
AwayWWWDW1.55
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%64%41%
AVG goals2.703.052.36
Over 1.5 %77%82%73%
Over 2.5 %52%64%41%
Over 3.5 %27%32%23%
Scored1.822.181.45
Conceded0.890.860.91
BTTS48%50%45%
Clean Sheet39%41%36%
Corners8.147.259.33
Cards4.504.754.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DečićDečić3670
56%
1.9
5527+28
2.3
69%
36%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.50.8
-
2MornarMornar3664
47%
1.8
4532+13
2.1
50%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.20.9
-
3Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3661
47%
1.7
6643+23
3.0
86%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.81.2
-
4SutjeskaSutjeska3653
36%
1.5
4636+10
2.3
67%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.0
-
5JezeroJezero3651
39%
1.4
4138+3
2.2
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.1
-
6PetrovacPetrovac3648
31%
1.3
4240+2
2.3
69%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.1
-
7Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3642
25%
1.2
4358-15
2.8
83%
47%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.6
-
8JedinstvoJedinstvo3839
24%
1.0
4657-11
2.7
74%
45%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
-
9Mladost DGMladost DG3835
24%
0.9
3962-23
2.7
76%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.6
-
10Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3627
19%
0.8
2554-29
2.2
58%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.5
-
11Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.0
-
12Mladost LješkopoljeMladost Lješkopolje21
0%
0.5
13-2
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
Montenegro: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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