This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.67
0.62
1.69
1.21
1.64
vs Stronger (9)
1.22
1.78
0.50
1.25
1.80
2.20
vs Similar (21)
0.76
1.62
0.67
1.83
0.89
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.2%
Under 1.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.1%
@ 2.04+3.1%
Under 2.5
50.9%
@ 1.74-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.2%
Under 3.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.4%
2-0
8.1%
1-2 ✓
6.9%
0-1
6.9%
2-2
5.2%
Morton goals ↓
Arbroath goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
6.9%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
1
9.5%
13%
6.9%
2.6%
0.7%
2
8.1%
9.2%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.1%
4.6%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.5%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Morton goals (down), columns = Arbroath goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Airdrie United
2.25
Dundee
1.96
Queens Park
1.61
Ayr
1.61
Queen's Park
1.61
Ayr Utd
1.61
Morton
1.60
Partick
1.52
Alloa Athletic
1.50
Inverness CT
1.44
Raith Rvs
1.19
Raith Rovers
1.19
Arbroath
0.96
Hamilton Academical
0.93
Cove Rangers
0.87
Hamilton
0.86
Falkirk
0.00
Morton is 0.63 points better than Arbroath in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 0.96).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Airdrie United
2.25
Dundee
2.02
Queens Park
1.75
Queen's Park
1.75
Partick
1.73
Ayr
1.69
Ayr Utd
1.69
Morton
1.52
Alloa Athletic
1.50
Inverness CT
1.37
Raith Rvs
1.28
Raith Rovers
1.28
Cove Rangers
1.12
Falkirk
1.00
Hamilton Academical
0.95
Hamilton
0.86
Arbroath
0.79
Morton is 0.73 goals better than Arbroath in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 0.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Airdrie United
1.00
Dundee
1.02
Morton
1.19
Ayr
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.19
Arbroath
1.23
Inverness CT
1.29
Raith Rvs
1.36
Raith Rovers
1.36
Partick
1.38
Queens Park
1.44
Queen's Park
1.44
Hamilton Academical
1.70
Hamilton
1.75
Cove Rangers
2.19
Alloa Athletic
2.50
Falkirk
3.50
Morton is 0.04 goals better than Arbroath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.23).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Morton
For 6.3 · Against 5.6 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arbroath
For 6.3 · Against 5.7 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 9.0 · Total 18.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Morton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
10.1
11.9
2.2
2.2
2.3
22.3
23.6
21.2
vs Stronger (7)
10.0
10.0
10.0
3.6
3.7
3.5
22.4
22.5
22.3
vs Similar (43)
11.3
10.2
12.3
2.0
1.9
2.1
22.3
23.8
20.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
73%
57%
88%
30%
27%
32%
50%
57%
44%
% under line
27%
43%
12%
70%
73%
68%
50%
43%
56%
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.4
10.1
2.0
2.1
1.9
21.2
21.4
21.1
vs Stronger (16)
11.1
10.2
11.8
2.6
2.9
2.3
20.5
20.2
20.8
vs Similar (34)
9.7
10.6
8.8
1.7
1.8
1.7
21.6
22.0
21.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
71%
50%
30%
32%
28%
50%
50%
50%
% under line
39%
29%
50%
70%
68%
72%
50%
50%
50%
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Queens Park
11.2
Dundee
11.1
Hamilton
10.9
Morton
10.8
Arbroath
10.5
Ayr
10.5
Falkirk
10.5
Airdrie United
10.3
Inverness CT
9.8
Partick
9.7
Cove Rangers
9.6
Raith Rvs
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Falkirk
4.2
Hamilton
4.1
Dundee
3.9
Raith Rvs
3.8
Cove Rangers
3.6
Arbroath
3.5
Airdrie United
3.5
Queens Park
3.4
Morton
3.3
Ayr
3.3
Partick
3.3
Inverness CT
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dundee
24.3
Hamilton
23.4
Falkirk
22.1
Inverness CT
21.7
Arbroath
21.6
Morton
21.5
Cove Rangers
21.1
Raith Rvs
20.7
Partick
20.3
Ayr
19.7
Airdrie United
18.8
Queens Park
18.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
65.3%
Under 9.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.6%
Under 3.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
43.0%
Under 21.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Morton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.91
0.36
0.68
0.68
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.60
1.11
0.44
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.77
0.31
0.75
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.89
0.50
0.50
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.29
0.71
0.25
0.83
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Morton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Morton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
1.09
0.27
0.37
0.79
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.60
1.11
0.33
0.31
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.31
0.94
0.79
0.86
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.89
0.00
0.75
1.20
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.90
0.42
1.00
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Morton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Morton and Arbroath have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Morton and Arbroath have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (7)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Morton and Arbroath have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (13)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Morton and Arbroath have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dundee
Partick
Inverness CT
Ayr Utd
Queens Park
Queen's Park
Cove Rangers
Raith Rovers
Hamilton Academical
Airdrie United
Alloa Athletic
Falkirk