This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.43
2.07
0.87
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
1.12
1.50
0.50
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (17)
1.59
1.59
1.75
1.25
1.44
1.89
vs Weaker (5)
2.40
1.40
3.67
0.33
0.50
3.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.4%
@ 2.06+3.4%
Under 2.5
51.6%
@ 1.69-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.7%
No
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0 ✓
10.7%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.5%
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.1%
Morton goals ↓
Arbroath goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
6.2%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.9%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.6%
9.5%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
5.1%
5.1%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Morton goals (down), columns = Arbroath goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Alloa Athletic
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.15
Partick
1.85
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rvs
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queens Park
1.14
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr
1.08
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Ross County
1.02
Queen of the South
1.00
Airdrie United
0.94
Morton is 0.44 points worse than Arbroath in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ST Johnstone
1.81
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rvs
1.19
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr
1.06
Ayr Utd
1.06
Ross County
1.04
Morton
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Queens Park
0.97
Queen's Park
0.97
Airdrie United
0.92
Morton is 0.25 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
ST Johnstone
0.71
Partick
0.96
Alloa Athletic
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr
1.31
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queens Park
1.33
Queen's Park
1.33
Airdrie United
1.34
Morton
1.38
Ross County
1.56
Morton is 0.23 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Morton
For 3.7 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arbroath
For 4.4 · Against 3.4 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 11.6 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Morton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.5
12.5
10.7
1.1
1.2
0.9
19.9
19.0
20.7
vs Stronger (8)
8.0
7.0
9.0
2.4
3.8
1.0
20.2
20.5
20.0
vs Similar (40)
13.1
15.2
11.4
0.9
0.8
0.9
19.8
18.2
21.0
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
50%
71%
16%
20%
12%
31%
17%
43%
% under line
38%
50%
29%
84%
80%
88%
69%
83%
57%
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
8.0
11.4
2.2
2.4
2.0
19.8
20.6
18.9
vs Stronger (12)
10.2
9.8
10.8
2.8
3.2
2.5
18.9
20.2
17.5
vs Similar (27)
9.2
6.4
11.6
1.7
1.6
1.8
21.5
21.6
21.4
vs Weaker (11)
10.0
8.8
11.5
2.7
3.5
1.8
17.7
19.6
15.2
% over line
56%
31%
81%
26%
35%
17%
31%
38%
25%
% under line
44%
69%
19%
74%
65%
83%
69%
62%
75%
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
11.4
Queens Park
11.1
Morton
11.0
Airdrie United
10.4
ST Johnstone
10.4
Partick
10.2
Dunfermline
10.1
Arbroath
10.1
Ayr
9.9
Stenhousemuir
9.2
Raith Rvs
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Morton
5.0
Ayr Utd
4.8
Ayr
4.4
Partick
4.3
Queens Park
4.2
Stenhousemuir
4.1
Raith Rvs
4.0
ST Johnstone
4.0
Dunfermline
3.7
Airdrie United
3.4
Ross County
3.4
Arbroath
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
22.8
Ayr
22.6
Raith Rvs
22.4
Morton
22.3
ST Johnstone
22.2
Ross County
20.7
Dunfermline
20.7
Airdrie United
20.3
Partick
20.2
Queens Park
20.0
Arbroath
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
62.4%
Under 9.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
64.0%
Under 3.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
47.5%
Under 21.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Morton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.79
0.64
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.17
0.00
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.55
0.60
0.70
0.50
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
2.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.87
0.40
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.47
0.88
0.50
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.60
1.67
0.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Morton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Morton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.29
0.64
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.17
0.00
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.64
0.30
0.70
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.93
1.20
0.47
0.67
1.40
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.62
1.25
0.00
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (17)
1.00
1.12
0.88
0.75
1.11
1.44
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.80
2.00
0.33
0.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Morton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJ (25)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Morton and Arbroath have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJ (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Morton and Arbroath have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Morton and Arbroath have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Morton and Arbroath have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
ST Johnstone
Partick
Dunfermline
Ross County
Airdrie United
Raith Rovers
Queens Park
Queen's Park
Ayr Utd
Alloa Athletic
Stenhousemuir
Queen of the South