Morton vs Ayr Utd Result & Analysis

Ayr Utd are tipped to lift the trophy, with the model favouring an away win. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a compact affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13% chance. Morton, playing at home, has been modest, scoring 1.17 and conceding 1.33 against similar opposition, while Ayr, on the road, has been more potent, netting 2.5 and conceding 1.5 to comparable teams. The model’s home win probability sits at 25%, the draw at 27%, and the away win at 48%. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 89.3%, Under 25.5 fouls at 80.3%, Under 4.5 cards at 77.8%, Over 1.5 at 76.5% (hit) and Under 3.5 at 71.2% (hit). Both sides have recently drawn 1-1 matches, but Ayr’s stronger away form gives them the edge in this encounter.

The model’s prediction proved accurate as the match finished 1-2 in favour of Ayr Utd, extending their winning run. The pre-match favourite was the away win, with a 48% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The Over 1.5 selection, at 76.5%, hit, while the Under 3.5 choice, at 71.2%, also hit. Morton, coming off a draw, struggled to convert their 1.17 average goals scored at home, whereas Ayr Utd, averaging 2.5 goals on the road, capitalised on their stronger attack. The final score of 1-2 matched the model’s expected outcome and the most likely total of two goals.