Morton’s defensive record at home is modest, conceding 0.93 goals per game against teams of similar strength, while Dunfermline’s away form shows a more potent attack, scoring 1.27 goals per match and conceding 1.0. The model favours an away win, with a 41 % probability, followed by a 33 % chance of a draw and a 26 % chance of a Morton win. The expected total goals hover just above two, 2.1 on average, and the most likely total is two goals, with a 28 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6 % chance. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.8 %), Under 5.5 (98.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8 %), Under 4.5 (94.3 %), Home under 2.5 goals (94.1 %) and Away +2 handicap (90.8 %). Morton have suffered five consecutive losses, last falling 1-2 to Arbroath, while Dunfermline’s recent run of two defeats ended with a 0-2 loss to Livingston.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Morton win
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline win
40.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Morton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.67
0.71
0.86
1.00
2.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
1.58
0.77
0.92
1.08
2.23
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.80
1.88
0.50
1.21
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.50
0.77
1.64
0.50
1.33
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
4.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
61.8%
Under 1.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
33.4%
Under 2.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.0%
Under 3.5
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.6%
No
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
14.3%
0-1
13.6%
1-0
10.3%
0-2
8.6%
1-2
7.6%
2-1
5.9%
2-0
5.2%
Morton goals ↓
Dunfermline goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
14%
8.6%
3.3%
0.9%
1
10%
15%
7.6%
2.9%
0.8%
2
5.2%
5.9%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
3
1.5%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Morton goals (down), columns = Dunfermline goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Morton is 0.50 points worse than Dunfermline in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.54).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Arbroath
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Morton is 0.44 goals worse than Dunfermline in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Morton is 0.35 goals worse than Dunfermline in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.02).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Morton
For 5.0 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.1 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunfermline
For 4.8 · Against 3.5 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.6 · Against 10.6 · Total 18.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Morton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.8
10.0
0.7
0.7
0.8
23.1
23.6
22.6
vs Stronger (3)
10.3
9.0
11.0
4.3
8.0
2.5
22.7
29.0
19.5
vs Similar (45)
9.7
10.0
9.3
0.5
0.3
0.7
23.3
22.2
24.7
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
60%
60%
60%
6%
4%
7%
60%
60%
60%
% under line
40%
40%
40%
94%
96%
93%
40%
40%
40%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
8.2
8.1
1.1
0.7
1.5
20.5
23.0
18.7
vs Stronger (3)
9.0
13.0
5.0
1.3
1.0
2.0
19.5
24.0
15.0
vs Similar (44)
8.0
7.0
8.7
1.1
0.7
1.6
20.7
22.8
19.3
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
25%
20%
29%
16%
7%
26%
50%
60%
43%
% under line
75%
80%
71%
84%
93%
74%
50%
40%
57%
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.4%
Under 9.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
65.2%
Under 3.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
47.4%
Under 21.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Morton or Draw
59.8%
Avg Implied -
27%
33%
40%
covers Morton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Morton or Dunfermline
67.2%
Avg Implied -
27%
33%
40%
covers Morton + Dunfermline
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dunfermline
73.0%
Avg Implied -
27%
33%
40%
covers Draw + Dunfermline
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Morton over/under 0.5
Over
59.0%
Under
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5
Over
22.5%
Under
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5
Over
68.3%
Under
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5
Over
31.9%
Under
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Morton, so a minus line means Morton give that many goals of a start and Dunfermline receive them. At -1, Morton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Morton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Morton)
Morton -2
2.5%
Draw -2
7.2%
Dunfermline +2
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Morton)
Morton -1
9.7%
Draw -1
17.3%
Dunfermline +1
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Morton)
Morton +1
59.8%
Draw +1
22.7%
Dunfermline -1
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Morton)
Morton +2
82.4%
Draw +2
11.9%
Dunfermline -2
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Morton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.36
0.36
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.50
0.38
0.38
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.94
0.19
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.38
0.79
0.21
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Morton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Morton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.17
0.36
0.50
0.38
1.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.38
1.08
0.38
0.54
0.38
1.62
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.40
0.94
0.31
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.85
0.38
0.86
0.29
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Morton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Morton's squad is €3m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€1m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Morton's attack is €1m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Morton and Dunfermline have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Morton's defence is €2m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€0m vs €2m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stenhousemuir
Partick
Raith Rovers
Arbroath
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Inverness CT
Queen's Park