Moss’s recent form shows a shaky defense, conceding 2.0 goals per game at home against similar opposition, while their offense averages 1.85 goals. Egersund, on the road, has been more efficient, scoring 1.58 and conceding only 1.17 against comparable teams. The model predicts an away win, with a 42% chance for Egersund, 34% for Moss and 24% for a draw. The expected total is 3.6 goals, centring around a 3-goal outcome that carries a 21% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.9% chance. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.1%), Under 6.5 (93.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (88.0%), Over 1.5 (87.9%), Under 5.5 (85.1%), Away over 0.5 goals (84.5%) and Away +2 handicap (82.3%). The match is poised for a high-scoring affair, with Egersund’s tighter defence and Moss’s recent loss suggesting a slight edge for the visitors.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Moss win
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Egersund win
41.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Moss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.10
1.79
2.21
0.81
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.50
1.00
5.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.29
2.00
1.85
2.00
0.80
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Egersund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Egersund
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.30
1.62
1.38
1.71
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.50
1.38
1.42
1.58
1.58
1.17
vs Weaker (6)
2.33
1.00
2.25
0.75
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.9%
Under 1.5
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.9%
Under 2.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
47.5%
Under 3.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
69.8%
No
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
7.6%
2-2
7.1%
1-3
5.2%
0-2
5.0%
0-1
4.4%
2-3
4.4%
Moss goals ↓
Egersund goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
4.4%
5.0%
3.1%
1.4%
1
3.9%
9.9%
8.4%
5.2%
2.4%
2
4.1%
7.6%
7.1%
4.4%
2.1%
3
2.3%
4.3%
4.0%
2.5%
1.2%
4
1.0%
1.8%
1.7%
1.0%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moss goals (down), columns = Egersund goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Moss is 1.29 points worse than Egersund in terms of average points per game (0.29 vs 1.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Moss is 0.43 goals worse than Egersund in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Moss is 0.57 goals worse than Egersund in terms of goals conceded per game (2.29 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Moss or Draw
58.3%
Avg Implied -
34%
24%
42%
covers Moss + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Moss or Egersund
76.2%
Avg Implied -
34%
24%
42%
covers Moss + Egersund
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Egersund
65.5%
Avg Implied -
34%
24%
42%
covers Draw + Egersund
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Moss over/under 0.5
Over
81.5%
Under
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5
Over
50.3%
Under
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5
Over
24.0%
Under
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 3.5
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 0.5
Over
84.5%
Under
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 1.5
Over
55.7%
Under
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 2.5
Over
28.7%
Under
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 3.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Moss, so a minus line means Moss give that many goals of a start and Egersund receive them. At -1, Moss must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Moss win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Moss)
Moss -2
7.3%
Draw -2
10.4%
Egersund +2
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Moss)
Moss -1
17.7%
Draw -1
16.8%
Egersund +1
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Moss)
Moss +1
58.3%
Draw +1
18.6%
Egersund -1
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Moss)
Moss +2
76.9%
Draw +2
12.8%
Egersund -2
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Moss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.13
0.71
1.21
0.31
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.50
1.04
0.77
1.08
0.27
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Egersund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Egersund
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.56
0.50
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.54
0.50
0.58
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Moss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.97
1.07
1.00
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.96
1.08
0.92
0.53
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Egersund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Egersund
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.77
1.06
0.88
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.83
0.92
1.00
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Egersund over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Moss and Egersund have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Moss and Egersund have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Moss and Egersund have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Moss and Egersund have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
Haugesund
hodd
Kongsvinger
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Lyn
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Raufoss