Moss faces Haugesund in a high-scoring encounter, with the model predicting an average of 3.9 goals and a most likely total of 6+. The favourite result is an away win, with a 47% chance for Haugesund, 31% for Moss and 22% for a draw. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 8.3% probability. Moss, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages 1.85 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Haugesund, on the road, averages 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (95.3%), Over 1.5 (91.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.7%), Under 6.5 (89.6%), Away over 0.5 goals (88.6%), Away +2 handicap (84.0%), Home over 0.5 goals (82.8%) and Away under 3.5 goals (82.5%). Moss recently lost 1-2 to Strommen, whereas Haugesund are on a two-game winning streak, beating Bryne 2-0.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Moss win
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Haugesund win
47.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Moss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.10
1.79
2.21
0.81
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.50
1.00
5.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.29
2.00
1.85
2.00
0.80
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Haugesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Haugesund
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.37
1.38
2.25
1.36
2.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
2.62
1.00
2.50
0.80
2.80
vs Similar (17)
1.71
2.18
1.75
2.00
1.67
2.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
91.1%
Under 1.5
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
75.2%
Under 2.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
55.3%
Under 3.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
74.1%
No
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.2%
1-2
8.2%
2-2
7.2%
2-1
6.6%
1-3
5.9%
2-3
5.2%
0-2
4.6%
3-2
4.2%
Moss goals ↓
Haugesund goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.7%
3.5%
4.6%
3.4%
1.8%
1
2.7%
8.2%
8.2%
5.9%
3.2%
2
3.0%
6.6%
7.2%
5.2%
2.8%
3
1.8%
3.9%
4.2%
3.0%
1.7%
4
0.8%
1.7%
1.8%
1.3%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moss goals (down), columns = Haugesund goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Moss is 1.86 points worse than Haugesund in terms of average points per game (0.29 vs 2.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Moss is 1.86 goals worse than Haugesund in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 3.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Moss is 0.71 goals worse than Haugesund in terms of goals conceded per game (2.29 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Moss or Draw
52.9%
Avg Implied -
31%
22%
47%
covers Moss + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Moss or Haugesund
78.0%
Avg Implied -
31%
22%
47%
covers Moss + Haugesund
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Haugesund
69.1%
Avg Implied -
31%
22%
47%
covers Draw + Haugesund
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Moss over/under 0.5
Over
82.7%
Under
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5
Over
52.4%
Under
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5
Over
25.8%
Under
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 3.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 0.5
Over
88.6%
Under
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 1.5
Over
63.9%
Under
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 2.5
Over
37.1%
Under
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 3.5
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Moss, so a minus line means Moss give that many goals of a start and Haugesund receive them. At -1, Moss must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Moss win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Moss)
Moss -2
6.5%
Draw -2
9.3%
Haugesund +2
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Moss)
Moss -1
15.8%
Draw -1
15.1%
Haugesund +1
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Moss)
Moss +1
52.9%
Draw +1
18.9%
Haugesund -1
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Moss)
Moss +2
71.8%
Draw +2
14.2%
Haugesund -2
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Moss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.13
0.71
1.21
0.31
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.50
1.04
0.77
1.08
0.27
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Haugesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Haugesund
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.81
0.88
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.77
0.38
0.75
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (17)
0.88
1.06
1.25
1.00
0.56
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.4%
Under 0.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.3%
Under 1.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.7%
Under 2.5
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 0.5 HT
Over
63.3%
Under
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.4%
Under
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Moss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.97
1.07
1.00
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.96
1.08
0.92
0.53
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Haugesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Haugesund
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.43
0.56
1.38
0.79
1.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.85
0.62
1.75
0.20
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.82
1.12
0.50
1.00
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
85.3%
Under 0.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.0%
Under 1.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
31.4%
Under 2.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.4%
Under
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 1.5 2H
Over
32.6%
Under
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 2.5 2H
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Haugesund · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sory Diarra24%
Runar Espejord14%
Ilir Kukleci14%
Havard Karlsen10%
Claus Niyukuri9%
Emil Rohd8%
Julius Eskesen8%
Niko Hämäläinen8%
Ismaël Seone6%
Sander Innvær6%
Troy Nyhammer5%
Mikkel Hope5%
Madiodio Dia4%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Morten Agnes Konradsen0%
Amund Wichne0%
Bruno Leite0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Oscar Krusnell0%
Parfait Bizoza0%
Miika Koskela0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Jasper Silva Torkildsen0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Mikkel Fischer0%
Martin Alvsaker0%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug0%
Anders Bondhus0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Ismael Camara0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Miika Koskela38%
Bruno Leite29%
Martin Alvsaker25%
Julius Eskesen23%
Madiodio Dia22%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug18%
Niko Hämäläinen15%
Ilir Kukleci14%
Troy Nyhammer14%
Mikkel Fischer12%
Parfait Bizoza10%
Emil Rohd8%
Pyry Hannola8%
Oscar Krusnell7%
Morten Agnes Konradsen6%
Ismael Camara6%
Sory Diarra5%
Mikkel Hope5%
Claus Niyukuri4%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Amund Wichne0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Runar Espejord0%
Jasper Silva Torkildsen0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Sander Innvær0%
Anders Bondhus0%
Ismaël Seone0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Havard Karlsen0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jasper Silva Torkildsen33%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug9%
Claus Niyukuri9%
Niko Hämäläinen8%
Pyry Hannola8%
Anders Bondhus7%
Bruno Leite5%
Sory Diarra5%
Troy Nyhammer5%
Parfait Bizoza3%
Julius Eskesen0%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Morten Agnes Konradsen0%
Amund Wichne0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Runar Espejord0%
Oscar Krusnell0%
Miika Koskela0%
Ilir Kukleci0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Mikkel Fischer0%
Sander Innvær0%
Martin Alvsaker0%
Emil Rohd0%
Mikkel Hope0%
Ismaël Seone0%
Madiodio Dia0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Ismael Camara0%
Havard Karlsen0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Runar Espejord29%
Julius Eskesen15%
Morten Agnes Konradsen12%
Sory Diarra10%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug9%
Troy Nyhammer5%
Mikkel Hope5%
Parfait Bizoza3%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Amund Wichne0%
Bruno Leite0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Oscar Krusnell0%
Niko Hämäläinen0%
Miika Koskela0%
Ilir Kukleci0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Claus Niyukuri0%
Jasper Silva Torkildsen0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Mikkel Fischer0%
Sander Innvær0%
Martin Alvsaker0%
Emil Rohd0%
Anders Bondhus0%
Ismaël Seone0%
Madiodio Dia0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Ismael Camara0%
Havard Karlsen0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Moss's squad is €4m less valuable than Haugesund's (€4m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Moss's attack is €1m less valuable than Haugesund's (€2m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Moss's midfield is €1m less valuable than Haugesund's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Moss's defence is €2m less valuable than Haugesund's (€2m vs €4m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
hodd
Kongsvinger
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Lyn
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Raufoss