Moss faces Kongsvinger in a high-scoring encounter, with the model projecting an average of 3.7 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-2 for Kongsvinger, a 9.1% chance. The odds show a 24% chance of a Moss win, 22% for a draw, and 54% that Kongsvinger will prevail - the model’s pick is an away win. Moss, at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages 1.85 goals scored and concedes 2.0, while Kongsvinger, on the road, scores 1.89 and concedes only 1.44. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (96.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.0%), Under 6.5 (92.2%), Away +2 handicap (89.0%), Away over 0.5 goals (89.0%), Over 1.5 (88.8%), Under 5.5 (83.7%), and Home under 2.5 goals (82.1%). Moss is coming off a defeat to Strommen, whereas Kongsvinger returns from a 4-4 draw with Lyn.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Moss win
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger win
53.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Moss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.10
1.79
2.21
0.81
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.50
1.00
5.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.29
2.00
1.85
2.00
0.80
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kongsvinger
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.57
2.20
1.93
2.40
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
2.00
1.90
2.08
2.25
1.89
1.44
vs Weaker (9)
3.00
0.78
2.67
0.67
3.17
0.83
Clean sheet %
23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.8%
Under 1.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.7%
Under 2.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
49.6%
Under 3.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
69.0%
No
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.1%
1-1
9.1%
1-3
6.7%
2-2
6.6%
0-2
6.3%
2-1
6.0%
0-1
4.9%
2-3
4.9%
Moss goals ↓
Kongsvinger goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
4.9%
6.3%
4.6%
2.5%
1
2.9%
9.1%
9.1%
6.7%
3.7%
2
2.7%
6.0%
6.6%
4.9%
2.7%
3
1.3%
2.9%
3.2%
2.4%
1.3%
4
0.5%
1.1%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moss goals (down), columns = Kongsvinger goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Moss is 1.88 points worse than Kongsvinger in terms of average points per game (0.29 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Moss is 1.55 goals worse than Kongsvinger in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 2.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Moss is 0.45 goals worse than Kongsvinger in terms of goals conceded per game (2.29 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Moss or Draw
46.2%
Avg Implied -
24%
22%
54%
covers Moss + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Moss or Kongsvinger
78.0%
Avg Implied -
24%
22%
54%
covers Moss + Kongsvinger
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kongsvinger
75.8%
Avg Implied -
24%
22%
54%
covers Draw + Kongsvinger
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Moss over/under 0.5
Over
76.6%
Under
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5
Over
42.6%
Under
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 0.5
Over
89.0%
Under
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 1.5
Over
64.6%
Under
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 2.5
Over
37.8%
Under
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 3.5
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Moss, so a minus line means Moss give that many goals of a start and Kongsvinger receive them. At -1, Moss must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Moss win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Moss)
Moss -2
4.0%
Draw -2
7.1%
Kongsvinger +2
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Moss)
Moss -1
11.0%
Draw -1
13.1%
Kongsvinger +1
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Moss)
Moss +1
46.2%
Draw +1
20.4%
Kongsvinger -1
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Moss)
Moss +2
66.6%
Draw +2
16.3%
Kongsvinger -2
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Moss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.13
0.71
1.21
0.31
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.50
1.04
0.77
1.08
0.27
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kongsvinger
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
0.87
0.93
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.67
0.83
1.00
0.78
0.22
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.44
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Moss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.97
1.07
1.00
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.96
1.08
0.92
0.53
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kongsvinger
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.97
1.33
1.00
1.40
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.19
1.24
1.25
1.25
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (9)
1.78
0.33
1.67
0.00
1.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Moss's squad is €1m less valuable than Kongsvinger's (€4m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Moss's attack is €1m less valuable than Kongsvinger's (€2m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Moss and Kongsvinger have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Moss and Kongsvinger have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
Haugesund
hodd
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Lyn
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Raufoss