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Moss vs Raufoss Result & Analysis

Date: 26/07/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 1-2
Moss
Moss
Vs
47%
23%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Raufoss
Raufoss
Norway: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Moss a 47% win probability against Raufoss in the Norway: 1. Division on 2026-07-26, with 23% for the draw and 29% for Raufoss. The model estimates around 3.6 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (21%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (9.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (88%).

Results analysis

Moss finished 1-2 against Raufoss (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 47% home win, 23% draw and 29% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (88%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Moss win✗ Miss
47.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Raufoss win✓ Hit
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MossMoss

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-515L04L24L02L11D12L11D21W12L03LH·LIL29/09A·LYN05/10H·KON18/10A·EGE22/10H·AAL25/10A·STA01/11H·RAU08/11H·BRA23/11A·BRA29/11A·EGE04/07
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.332.071.931.930.732.20
vs Stronger (10)0.902.901.403.400.402.40
vs Similar (18)1.561.722.221.220.892.22
vs Weaker (2)1.501.002.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RaufossRaufoss

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-442W01L03L12L04L04L13L41W01L11DA·HOD30/08H·AAL13/09A·STA21/09H·RAN29/09A·STA04/10A·EGE18/10H·SOG22/10A·SKE25/10H·MJO02/11A·MOS08/11
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.871.331.471.532.27
vs Stronger (18)0.832.110.671.561.002.67
vs Similar (12)2.331.502.331.332.331.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.0%
Under 1.5
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.2%
Under 2.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.8%
Under 3.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.3%
No
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.7%
2-1
8.9%
2-2
6.9%
1-2 ✓
6.9%
3-1
5.9%
2-0
5.7%
1-0
4.8%
3-2
4.6%
Moss goals ↓
Raufoss goals →
01234
03.7%3.5%3.4%1.8%0.7%
14.8%9.7%6.9%3.6%1.4%
25.7%8.9%6.9%3.6%1.4%
33.8%5.9%4.6%2.4%0.9%
41.9%3.0%2.3%1.2%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moss goals (down), columns = Raufoss goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kongsvinger
1.74
Egersund
1.72
Lyn
1.57
Ranheim
1.55
Haugesund
1.54
Stromsgodset
1.48
Sogndal
1.43
Bryne
1.42
Sandnes ULF
1.23
Strommen
1.11
hodd
1.10
ODD Ballklubb
1.10
Asane
1.03
Stabaek
1.03
Raufoss
1.00
Moss
0.97
Moss is 0.03 points worse than Raufoss in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kongsvinger
2.10
Haugesund
1.79
Egersund
1.72
Stromsgodset
1.72
Bryne
1.65
Sogndal
1.63
Ranheim
1.61
Lyn
1.60
Stabaek
1.50
Sandnes ULF
1.43
Raufoss
1.43
Moss
1.38
Strommen
1.29
Asane
1.27
ODD Ballklubb
1.23
hodd
1.13
Moss is 0.06 goals worse than Raufoss in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.43).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Lyn
1.23
Egersund
1.34
Haugesund
1.40
Stromsgodset
1.46
Bryne
1.51
Kongsvinger
1.52
Sogndal
1.60
Ranheim
1.65
ODD Ballklubb
1.67
hodd
1.73
Sandnes ULF
1.74
Asane
1.77
Stabaek
1.77
Raufoss
1.87
Strommen
1.93
Moss
2.12
Moss is 0.26 goals worse than Raufoss in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 1.87).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (27)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (25)
€9m
STR (23)
€7m
BRY (23)
€6m
KON (26)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (21)
€4m
MOS (24)
€4m
LYN (25)
€4m
RAN (23)
€4m
HOD (21)
€3m
ASA (24)
€3m
SU (22)
€3m
RAU (21)
€2m
STR (24)
€2m
Moss's squad is €2m more valuable than Raufoss's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASA (0)
€0m
BRY (0)
€0m
EGE (0)
€0m
HAU (0)
€0m
HOD (0)
€0m
KON (0)
€0m
LYN (0)
€0m
MOS (0)
€0m
OB (0)
€0m
RAN (0)
€0m
RAU (0)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
SOG (0)
€0m
STA (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASA (0)
€0m
BRY (0)
€0m
EGE (0)
€0m
HAU (0)
€0m
HOD (0)
€0m
KON (0)
€0m
LYN (0)
€0m
MOS (0)
€0m
OB (0)
€0m
RAN (0)
€0m
RAU (0)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
SOG (0)
€0m
STA (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASA (0)
€0m
BRY (0)
€0m
EGE (0)
€0m
HAU (0)
€0m
HOD (0)
€0m
KON (0)
€0m
LYN (0)
€0m
MOS (0)
€0m
OB (0)
€0m
RAN (0)
€0m
RAU (0)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
SOG (0)
€0m
STA (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Moss vs Raufoss · H/A from MOS
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/25HMOS Vs Raufoss1-1
01/04/25ARaufoss Vs MOS3-2
02/11/24HMOS Vs Raufoss3-2
16/05/24ARaufoss Vs MOS0-2
03/09/23ARaufoss Vs MOS1-1
29/05/23HMOS Vs Raufoss1-0

MossMoss

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/07/26AEgersund Vs MOS3-0
29/11/25ABrattvåg Vs MOS2-1
23/11/25HMOS Vs Brattvåg2-1
08/11/25HMOS Vs Raufoss1-1
01/11/25AStart Vs MOS2-1
25/10/25HMOS Vs Aalesund1-1
22/10/25AEgersund Vs MOS2-0
18/10/25HMOS Vs Kongsvinger2-4
05/10/25ALyn Vs MOS4-0
29/09/25HMOS Vs Lillestrom1-5

RaufossRaufoss

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/25AMoss Vs RAU1-1
02/11/25HRAU Vs Mjondalen0-1
25/10/25ASkeid Vs RAU1-4
22/10/25HRAU Vs Sogndal1-3
18/10/25AEgersund Vs RAU4-0
04/10/25AStart Vs RAU4-0
29/09/25HRAU Vs Ranheim1-2
21/09/25AStabaek Vs RAU3-0
13/09/25HRAU Vs Aalesund0-1
30/08/25Ahodd Vs RAU2-4

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Moss
Moss
Norway: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLL1.12
HomeLLDDW1.88
AwayLLLLL0.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%56%4%
AVG goals3.263.642.88
Over 1.5 %88%92%84%
Over 2.5 %64%68%60%
Over 3.5 %38%48%28%
Scored1.422.120.72
Conceded1.841.522.16
BTTS60%72%48%
Clean Sheet14%20%8%
Corners7.005.009.00
Cards4.504.005.00
Raufoss
Raufoss
Norway: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLD1.18
HomeLLLLL1.16
AwayLLLWD1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%28%32%
AVG goals2.942.683.20
Over 1.5 %78%72%84%
Over 2.5 %60%48%72%
Over 3.5 %34%28%40%
Scored1.341.321.36
Conceded1.601.361.84
BTTS64%60%68%
Clean Sheet10%12%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StabaekStabaek412
100%
3.0
163+13
4.8
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
0004.00.8
-
2hoddhodd512
80%
2.4
1416-2
6.0
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0002.83.2
-
3EgersundEgersund510
60%
2.0
107+3
3.4
100%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
0002.01.4
-
4BryneBryne510
60%
2.0
75+2
2.4
100%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
0001.41.0
-
5HaugesundHaugesund59
60%
1.8
1711+6
5.6
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
0003.42.2
-
6KongsvingerKongsvinger49
75%
2.2
127+5
4.8
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
0003.01.8
-
7LynLyn47
50%
1.8
128+4
5.0
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0003.02.0
-
8StromsgodsetStromsgodset57
40%
1.4
98+1
3.4
100%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
0001.81.6
-
9SogndalSogndal46
50%
1.5
77+0
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.81.8
-
10ODD BallklubbODD Ballklubb55
20%
1.0
912-3
4.2
80%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
0001.82.4
-
11StrommenStrommen44
25%
1.0
79-2
4.0
75%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.82.2
-
12AsaneAsane44
25%
1.0
710-3
4.2
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.82.5
-
13RanheimRanheim43
25%
0.8
1011-1
5.2
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0002.52.8
-
14RaufossRaufoss43
25%
0.8
512-7
4.2
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.23.0
-
15MossMoss51
0%
0.2
612-6
3.6
100%
100%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.22.4
-
16Sandnes ULFSandnes ULF51
0%
0.2
515-10
4.0
100%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.03.0
-
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →

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