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Mosta vs Birkirkara Result & Analysis

Date: 14/02/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 0-0
Mosta
Mosta
Vs
36%
28%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Mosta win✗ Miss
36.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara win✗ Miss
35.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

MostaMosta

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L11D23L22D20W05L12L01L05L01LA·GZI24/11H·ZAB12/12H·NAX19/12H·TAR08/01A·HIB11/01H·VAL16/01A·FLO25/01A·HIB31/01A·NAX04/02H·SLI08/02
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.931.212.140.811.75
vs Stronger (10)0.701.800.252.001.001.67
vs Similar (20)1.152.001.602.200.701.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L02L16L02L12L30W02L01L50W10WA·SLI23/11A·FLO13/12A·HAM21/12A·VAL07/01A·MAR11/01H·HIB18/01A·GZI25/01H·MAR31/01H·TAR03/02H·VAL08/02
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.101.140.500.811.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.971.101.140.500.811.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.7%
Under 2.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.5%
Under 3.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
7.4%
0-1
7.4%
0-0 ✓
7.4%
2-0
6.0%
0-2
5.9%
Mosta goals ↓
Birkirkara goals →
01234
07.4%7.4%5.9%2.8%1.0%
17.4%13%8.3%3.8%1.3%
26.0%8.4%5.8%2.7%0.9%
32.8%3.9%2.7%1.3%0.4%
41.0%1.4%0.9%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mosta goals (down), columns = Birkirkara goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Mosta is 0.21 points worse than Birkirkara in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.09).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Mosta is 0.15 goals better than Birkirkara in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 0.91).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Mosta is 0.63 goals worse than Birkirkara in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.12).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MostaMosta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L11D21W00D01L11D01L03L01LA·GZI24/11H·ZAB12/12H·NAX19/12H·TAR08/01A·HIB11/01H·VAL16/01A·FLO25/01A·HIB31/01A·NAX04/02H·SLI08/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.800.361.070.310.56
vs Stronger (10)0.300.800.001.500.500.33
vs Similar (20)0.350.800.500.900.200.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L11D02L11D00D00D00D30W00DA·SLI23/11A·FLO13/12A·HAM21/12A·VAL07/01A·MAR11/01H·HIB18/01A·GZI25/01H·MAR31/01H·TAR03/02H·VAL08/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.470.570.290.500.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.530.470.570.290.500.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MostaMosta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W12L01L20W04L01L00D02L00DA·GZI24/11H·ZAB12/12H·NAX19/12H·TAR08/01A·HIB11/01H·VAL16/01A·FLO25/01A·HIB31/01A·NAX04/02H·SLI08/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.130.861.070.501.19
vs Stronger (10)0.401.000.250.500.501.33
vs Similar (20)0.801.201.101.300.501.10
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L00D05L00D01L30W02L01L20W10WA·SLI23/11A·FLO13/12A·HAM21/12A·VAL07/01A·MAR11/01H·HIB18/01A·GZI25/01H·MAR31/01H·TAR03/02H·VAL08/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.630.570.210.311.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.430.630.570.210.311.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Mosta and Birkirkara have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Mosta and Birkirkara have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Mosta and Birkirkara have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Mosta and Birkirkara have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
MOS wins
1
Draws
6
BIR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mosta vs Birkirkara · H/A from MOS
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/25ABirkirkara Vs MOS2-0
19/04/25ABirkirkara Vs MOS1-0
08/02/25ABirkirkara Vs MOS2-0
29/11/24ABirkirkara Vs MOS2-0
29/09/24HMOS Vs Birkirkara0-1
24/02/24HMOS Vs Birkirkara0-2
21/10/23ABirkirkara Vs MOS0-2
11/03/23HMOS Vs Birkirkara1-1

MostaMosta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/26HMOS Vs Sliema Wanderers0-1
04/02/26ANaxxar Lions Vs MOS5-0
31/01/26AHibernians Vs MOS1-0
25/01/26AFloriana Vs MOS2-1
16/01/26HMOS Vs Valletta FC0-5
11/01/26AHibernians Vs MOS0-2
08/01/26HMOS Vs Tarxien Rainbows2-2
19/12/25HMOS Vs Naxxar Lions2-3
12/12/25HMOS Vs Zabbar St. Patrick1-1
24/11/25AGzira United Vs MOS1-0

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/26HBIR Vs Valletta FC1-0
03/02/26HBIR Vs Tarxien Rainbows5-0
31/01/26HBIR Vs Marsaxlokk0-1
25/01/26AGzira United Vs BIR2-0
18/01/26HBIR Vs Hibernians3-0
11/01/26AMarsaxlokk Vs BIR2-1
07/01/26AValletta FC Vs BIR2-0
21/12/25AHamrun Spartans Vs BIR6-1
13/12/25AFloriana Vs BIR2-0
23/11/25ASliema Wanderers Vs BIR2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.08
HomeDLDLL1.21
AwayLWLLL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%33%31%
AVG goals2.842.832.85
Over 1.5 %72%67%77%
Over 2.5 %50%46%54%
Over 3.5 %34%38%31%
Scored1.101.211.00
Conceded1.741.621.85
BTTS44%42%46%
Clean Sheet18%25%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWW1.36
HomeLWLWW1.64
AwayLLLLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%46%27%
AVG goals2.242.182.32
Over 1.5 %68%64%73%
Over 2.5 %32%21%45%
Over 3.5 %16%18%14%
Scored1.161.320.95
Conceded1.080.861.36
BTTS32%32%32%
Clean Sheet42%43%41%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3466
56%
1.9
5522+33
2.3
74%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.6
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3457
47%
1.7
4439+5
2.4
76%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3433
18%
1.0
4245-3
2.6
79%
44%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.3
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3424
12%
0.7
3359-26
2.7
76%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.7
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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