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Mosta vs Gzira United Result & Analysis

Date: 04/01/2025
Time: 18:00
Final 1-0
Mosta
Mosta
Vs
32%
28%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gzira United
Gzira United
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Mosta win✓ Hit
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gzira United win✗ Miss
39.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

MostaMosta

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L10W42W21W22D01L02L23L21W13LH·FLO03/10H·HIB19/10H·ZAB27/10A·MEL02/11H·BAL06/11A·FLO23/11A·BIR29/11A·HIB07/12A·HAM17/12A·SLI21/12
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.371.151.150.941.53
vs Stronger (9)0.441.890.332.000.501.83
vs Similar (20)1.301.201.400.901.201.50
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L11D01L31W12L21W11D00D21W02LA·BAL03/10A·NAX20/10H·BIR26/10H·ZAB02/11H·HAM07/11H·ZAB24/11H·NAX30/11H·MAR08/12H·BAL15/12H·MEL22/12
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.101.291.001.381.23
vs Stronger (7)1.141.431.201.601.001.00
vs Similar (22)1.321.051.180.821.451.27
vs Weaker (1)3.000.003.000.00--
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.2%
No
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-2
8.7%
0-1
8.6%
0-0
8.2%
2-1
7.7%
1-0 ✓
7.5%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
5.5%
Mosta goals ↓
Gzira United goals →
01234
08.2%8.6%6.9%3.2%1.1%
17.5%14%8.7%4.1%1.4%
25.5%7.7%5.4%2.6%0.9%
32.3%3.2%2.3%1.1%0.4%
40.7%1.0%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mosta goals (down), columns = Gzira United goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
1.94
Birkirkara
1.74
Sliema Wanderers
1.71
Hamrun Spartans
1.65
Hibernians
1.53
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Gzira United
1.31
Mosta
1.19
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.12
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Balzan FC
0.91
Melita
0.88
Mosta is 0.12 points worse than Gzira United in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.31).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Floriana
1.53
Sliema Wanderers
1.47
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Hamrun Spartans
1.44
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.41
Birkirkara
1.35
Hibernians
1.34
Melita
1.15
Mosta
1.09
Balzan FC
1.06
Gzira United
1.06
Naxxar Lions
0.94
Mosta is 0.03 goals better than Gzira United in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.06).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Floriana
0.68
Hamrun Spartans
0.82
Birkirkara
0.85
Sliema Wanderers
0.94
Marsaxlokk
1.22
Hibernians
1.25
Gzira United
1.31
Balzan FC
1.56
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.56
Mosta
1.66
Naxxar Lions
1.67
Melita
1.91
Mosta is 0.34 goals worse than Gzira United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.66 vs 1.31).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MostaMosta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W11D21W00D00D00D02L11D11DH·FLO03/10H·HIB19/10H·ZAB27/10A·MEL02/11H·BAL06/11A·FLO23/11A·BIR29/11A·HIB07/12A·HAM17/12A·SLI21/12
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.670.380.540.410.76
vs Stronger (9)0.220.890.001.000.330.83
vs Similar (20)0.450.600.500.400.400.80
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L01L01L11D00D10W00D00D00D01LA·BAL03/10A·NAX20/10H·BIR26/10H·ZAB02/11H·HAM07/11H·ZAB24/11H·NAX30/11H·MAR08/12H·BAL15/12H·MEL22/12
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.530.410.350.620.77
vs Stronger (7)0.430.710.200.601.001.00
vs Similar (22)0.450.500.360.270.550.73
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MostaMosta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D31W00D22D01L02L21W10W02LH·FLO03/10H·HIB19/10H·ZAB27/10A·MEL02/11H·BAL06/11A·FLO23/11A·BIR29/11A·HIB07/12A·HAM17/12A·SLI21/12
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.700.770.620.530.76
vs Stronger (9)0.221.000.331.000.171.00
vs Similar (20)0.850.600.900.500.800.70
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W00D20W12L11D11D00D21W01LA·BAL03/10A·NAX20/10H·BIR26/10H·ZAB02/11H·HAM07/11H·ZAB24/11H·NAX30/11H·MAR08/12H·BAL15/12H·MEL22/12
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.570.880.650.770.46
vs Stronger (7)0.710.711.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (22)0.860.550.820.550.910.55
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.7%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
Mosta and Gzira United have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
Mosta and Gzira United have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
Mosta and Gzira United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Mosta and Gzira United have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
MOS wins
0
Draws
4
GU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mosta vs Gzira United · H/A from MOS
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/24AGzira United Vs MOS2-0
17/03/24AGzira United Vs MOS2-1
26/11/23HMOS Vs Gzira United0-3
01/04/23AGzira United Vs MOS1-2
04/11/22HMOS Vs Gzira United0-2

MostaMosta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/12/24ASliema Wanderers Vs MOS3-1
17/12/24AHamrun Spartans Vs MOS1-2
07/12/24AHibernians Vs MOS3-2
29/11/24ABirkirkara Vs MOS2-0
23/11/24AFloriana Vs MOS1-0
06/11/24HMOS Vs Balzan FC2-2
02/11/24AMelita Vs MOS1-2
27/10/24HMOS Vs Zabbar St. Patrick4-2
19/10/24HMOS Vs Hibernians1-0
03/10/24HMOS Vs Floriana0-2

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/12/24HGU Vs Melita0-2
15/12/24HGU Vs Balzan FC2-1
08/12/24HGU Vs Marsaxlokk0-0
30/11/24HGU Vs Naxxar Lions1-1
24/11/24HGU Vs Zabbar St. Patrick2-1
07/11/24HGU Vs Hamrun Spartans1-2
02/11/24HGU Vs Zabbar St. Patrick3-1
26/10/24HGU Vs Birkirkara0-1
20/10/24ANaxxar Lions Vs GU1-1
03/10/24ABalzan FC Vs GU2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL1.28
HomeLLWWD1.33
AwayLLLWL1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%38%31%
AVG goals2.402.542.27
Over 1.5 %72%75%69%
Over 2.5 %44%46%42%
Over 3.5 %22%25%19%
Scored1.081.081.08
Conceded1.321.461.19
BTTS42%38%46%
Clean Sheet30%29%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Gzira United
Gzira United
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWL1.32
HomeWDDWL1.41
AwayLWLLD1.22
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%37%35%
AVG goals2.682.562.83
Over 1.5 %80%81%78%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %26%26%26%
Scored1.401.331.48
Conceded1.281.221.35
BTTS54%52%57%
Clean Sheet26%26%26%
Corners8.006.0010.00
Cards5.004.505.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3466
53%
1.9
5223+29
2.2
74%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.50.7
-
2BirkirkaraBirkirkara3459
50%
1.7
4629+17
2.2
65%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.40.9
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3458
50%
1.7
5032+18
2.4
62%
41%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.50.9
-
4Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3456
47%
1.6
4928+21
2.3
62%
38%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.40.8
-
5HiberniansHibernians3249
44%
1.5
4340+3
2.6
81%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.31.2
-
6MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3247
41%
1.5
4739+8
2.7
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.51.2
-
7Gzira UnitedGzira United3242
34%
1.3
3442-8
2.4
69%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.3
-
8MostaMosta3238
38%
1.2
3553-18
2.8
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.7
-
9Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3236
31%
1.1
4550-5
3.0
84%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.6
-
10Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
3155-24
2.6
76%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.7
-
11Balzan FCBalzan FC3229
19%
0.9
3450-16
2.6
78%
53%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
12MelitaMelita3329
21%
0.9
3863-25
3.1
88%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
Malta: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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