The clash between Mosta and Hibernians is a tight affair, with the model favouring a Mosta victory. The odds are almost even, with a 39% chance of a home win, 28% for a draw and 33% for an away triumph. The average goal output sits at 2.8, but the most likely total is two goals, a 25% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.3% chance, a tidy reflection of the teams’ balanced attacking and defensive figures.
Mosta, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. Hibernians, on the road, nets 1.08 and concedes 1.58. Mosta’s recent four-game winning streak, capped by a 1-0 win over Birkirkara, gives them a slight edge, while Hibernians return from a draw, having finished 1-1 against Zabbar St. Patrick.
The model’s selections are: Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.2%), Under 5.5 (93.9%), Under 4.5 (85.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.3%), and Home +2 handicap (84.8%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mosta win
38.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hibernians win
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mosta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.53
1.29
1.53
1.00
1.54
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.17
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.62
1.38
1.62
0.91
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernians
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.47
1.24
1.18
0.85
1.85
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
1.62
0.67
1.67
1.40
1.60
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.41
1.36
1.07
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.0%
Under 2.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.8%
Under 3.5
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.1%
No
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
7.9%
0-0
7.6%
0-1
7.2%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
5.7%
Mosta goals ↓
Hibernians goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
7.2%
5.6%
2.5%
0.8%
1
7.9%
13%
8.0%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.5%
8.6%
5.7%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.1%
4.1%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.5%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mosta goals (down), columns = Hibernians goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Mosta is 0.34 points worse than Hibernians in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Mosta is 0.35 goals worse than Hibernians in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Mosta is 0.23 goals worse than Hibernians in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mosta or Draw
66.1%
Avg Implied -
38%
28%
34%
covers Mosta + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mosta or Hibernians
72.1%
Avg Implied -
38%
28%
34%
covers Mosta + Hibernians
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hibernians
61.7%
Avg Implied -
38%
28%
34%
covers Draw + Hibernians
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mosta over/under 0.5
Over
76.0%
Under
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5
Over
41.7%
Under
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5
Over
73.6%
Under
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5
Over
38.4%
Under
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mosta, so a minus line means Mosta give that many goals of a start and Hibernians receive them. At -1, Mosta must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mosta win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mosta)
Mosta -2
7.0%
Draw -2
11.7%
Hibernians +2
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mosta)
Mosta -1
18.6%
Draw -1
19.6%
Hibernians +1
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mosta)
Mosta +1
66.1%
Draw +1
18.2%
Hibernians -1
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mosta)
Mosta +2
84.4%
Draw +2
10.1%
Hibernians -2
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mosta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.65
0.65
0.54
0.77
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.75
0.69
0.69
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernians
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.59
0.41
0.46
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.88
0.33
1.00
0.80
0.80
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.59
0.64
0.29
0.25
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mosta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.65
0.88
0.46
0.77
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.88
0.69
0.92
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernians
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.65
0.76
0.38
0.85
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.82
0.71
0.79
0.25
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Mosta's squad is €2m less valuable than Hibernians's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Mosta and Hibernians have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Mosta and Hibernians have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Mosta's defence is €2m less valuable than Hibernians's (€1m vs €3m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Floriana
Valletta FC
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
Balzan FC
Zabbar St. Patrick
Sliema Wanderers
Hamrun Spartans
Birzebbuga
Gzira United