The contest between Mosta and Sliema Wanderers is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win at 41 %. A 30 % chance of a home victory and a 28 % chance of a draw leave no clear favourite. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely total of 2 goals carries a 26 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6 % chance. Mosta, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.25 conceded, while Sliema Wanderers, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.4 %, Under 6.5 at 98.2 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.6 %, Under 5.5 at 94.8 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.3 %, Home under 2.5 goals at 87.9 %, Under 4.5 at 87.2 %, and Away +2 handicap at 86.8 %. All figures are presented as percentages and each selection is listed once.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mosta win
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers win
40.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mosta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.53
1.29
1.53
1.00
1.54
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.17
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.62
1.38
1.62
0.91
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sliema Wanderers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.20
1.00
1.08
1.18
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.08
1.25
0.50
0.88
1.38
vs Weaker (18)
1.17
1.28
0.89
1.33
1.44
1.22
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.0%
Under 1.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.5%
Under 2.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.8%
Under 3.5
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.3%
No
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1
9.4%
0-0
8.9%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
7.7%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.4%
2-0
5.3%
Mosta goals ↓
Sliema Wanderers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
9.4%
7.5%
3.5%
1.2%
1
7.7%
14%
8.8%
4.1%
1.4%
2
5.3%
7.4%
5.1%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.1%
2.9%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mosta goals (down), columns = Sliema Wanderers goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Mosta is 0.62 points worse than Sliema Wanderers in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Mosta is 0.10 goals worse than Sliema Wanderers in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.16).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Mosta is 0.63 goals worse than Sliema Wanderers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mosta or Draw
59.2%
Avg Implied -
30%
29%
41%
covers Mosta + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mosta or Sliema Wanderers
71.1%
Avg Implied -
30%
29%
41%
covers Mosta + Sliema Wanderers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sliema Wanderers
69.6%
Avg Implied -
30%
29%
41%
covers Draw + Sliema Wanderers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mosta over/under 0.5
Over
69.1%
Under
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5
Over
32.8%
Under
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5
Over
75.3%
Under
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5
Over
40.7%
Under
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mosta, so a minus line means Mosta give that many goals of a start and Sliema Wanderers receive them. At -1, Mosta must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mosta win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mosta)
Mosta -2
4.1%
Draw -2
8.8%
Sliema Wanderers +2
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mosta)
Mosta -1
13.0%
Draw -1
17.4%
Sliema Wanderers +1
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mosta)
Mosta +1
59.2%
Draw +1
20.9%
Sliema Wanderers -1
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mosta)
Mosta +2
80.1%
Draw +2
12.5%
Sliema Wanderers -2
7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mosta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.65
0.65
0.54
0.77
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.75
0.69
0.69
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sliema Wanderers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.54
0.54
0.41
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.17
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.12
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
0.67
0.61
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.56
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.5%
Under 0.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.7%
Under 1.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.2%
Under 2.5
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.9%
Under
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.2%
Under
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mosta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.65
0.88
0.46
0.77
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.88
0.69
0.92
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sliema Wanderers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.46
0.54
0.76
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.25
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (18)
0.50
0.67
0.22
0.67
0.78
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.2%
Under 0.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.7%
Under 1.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.2%
Under 2.5
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.0%
Under
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.0%
Under
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Mosta's squad is €4m less valuable than Sliema Wanderers's (€3m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Mosta's attack is €1m less valuable than Sliema Wanderers's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Mosta's midfield is €1m less valuable than Sliema Wanderers's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Mosta and Sliema Wanderers have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Floriana
Valletta FC
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
Balzan FC
Zabbar St. Patrick
Hibernians
Hamrun Spartans
Birzebbuga
Gzira United