PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Mosta vs Tarxien Rainbows Result & Analysis

Date: 18/02/2026
Time: 20:00
Final 0-1
Mosta
Mosta
Vs
46%
27%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tarxien Rainbows
Tarxien Rainbows
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Mosta win✗ Miss
45.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows win✓ Hit
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

MostaMosta

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D23L22D20W05L12L01L05L01L00DH·ZAB12/12H·NAX19/12H·TAR08/01A·HIB11/01H·VAL16/01A·FLO25/01A·HIB31/01A·NAX04/02H·SLI08/02H·BIR14/02
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.871.132.000.731.73
vs Stronger (9)0.561.780.252.000.801.60
vs Similar (21)1.101.901.452.000.701.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tarxien Rainbows) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L12L22D01L12L12L12L05L11D02LA·HIB12/12A·GZI19/12A·MOS08/01A·NAX11/01A·HAM17/01A·MAR25/01H·GZI31/01A·BIR03/02A·HIB07/02A·FLO15/02
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.670.691.461.061.82
vs Stronger (5)0.401.400.501.000.331.67
vs Similar (23)0.961.780.701.601.151.92
vs Weaker (2)1.501.001.001.002.001.00
Clean sheet %10% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.3%
Under 1.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.8%
Under 2.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.5%
Under 3.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.3%
No
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
8.1%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.1%
0-0
6.8%
0-1 ✓
5.8%
2-2
5.8%
Mosta goals ↓
Tarxien Rainbows goals →
01234
06.8%5.8%4.3%1.8%0.6%
18.1%13%7.1%2.9%0.9%
27.6%9.4%5.8%2.4%0.7%
34.1%5.1%3.2%1.3%0.4%
41.7%2.1%1.3%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mosta goals (down), columns = Tarxien Rainbows goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Mosta is 0.17 points better than Tarxien Rainbows in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 0.71).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Mosta is 0.09 goals better than Tarxien Rainbows in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 0.97).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Mosta is 0.02 goals worse than Tarxien Rainbows in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.74).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MostaMosta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D21W00D01L11D01L03L01L00DH·ZAB12/12H·NAX19/12H·TAR08/01A·HIB11/01H·VAL16/01A·FLO25/01A·HIB31/01A·NAX04/02H·SLI08/02H·BIR14/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.800.331.000.270.60
vs Stronger (9)0.220.890.001.500.400.40
vs Similar (21)0.330.760.450.820.200.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Tarxien Rainbows) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W12L00D01L01L11D03L01L01LA·HIB12/12A·GZI19/12A·MOS08/01A·NAX11/01A·HAM17/01A·MAR25/01H·GZI31/01A·BIR03/02A·HIB07/02A·FLO15/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.830.310.690.410.94
vs Stronger (5)0.200.800.500.500.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.350.870.300.700.381.00
vs Weaker (2)1.000.500.001.002.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MostaMosta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W12L01L20W04L01L00D02L00D00DH·ZAB12/12H·NAX19/12H·TAR08/01A·HIB11/01H·VAL16/01A·FLO25/01A·HIB31/01A·NAX04/02H·SLI08/02H·BIR14/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.070.801.000.471.13
vs Stronger (9)0.330.890.250.500.401.20
vs Similar (21)0.761.141.001.180.501.10
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Tarxien Rainbows) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L10W01L11D11D01L02L10W01LA·HIB12/12A·GZI19/12A·MOS08/01A·NAX11/01A·HAM17/01A·MAR25/01H·GZI31/01A·BIR03/02A·HIB07/02A·FLO15/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.830.380.770.650.88
vs Stronger (5)0.200.600.000.500.330.67
vs Similar (23)0.610.910.400.900.770.92
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Mosta's squad is €2m more valuable than Tarxien Rainbows's (€3m vs €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Mosta's attack is €1m more valuable than Tarxien Rainbows's (€1m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Mosta and Tarxien Rainbows have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Mosta and Tarxien Rainbows have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
MOS wins
1
Draws
0
TR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mosta vs Tarxien Rainbows · H/A from MOS
DateH/AGameScore
08/01/26HMOS Vs Tarxien Rainbows2-2
02/11/25ATarxien Rainbows Vs MOS0-1

MostaMosta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/02/26HMOS Vs Birkirkara0-0
08/02/26HMOS Vs Sliema Wanderers0-1
04/02/26ANaxxar Lions Vs MOS5-0
31/01/26AHibernians Vs MOS1-0
25/01/26AFloriana Vs MOS2-1
16/01/26HMOS Vs Valletta FC0-5
11/01/26AHibernians Vs MOS0-2
08/01/26HMOS Vs Tarxien Rainbows2-2
19/12/25HMOS Vs Naxxar Lions2-3
12/12/25HMOS Vs Zabbar St. Patrick1-1

Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/02/26AFloriana Vs TR2-0
07/02/26AHibernians Vs TR1-1
03/02/26ABirkirkara Vs TR5-0
31/01/26HTR Vs Gzira United1-2
25/01/26AMarsaxlokk Vs TR2-1
17/01/26AHamrun Spartans Vs TR2-1
11/01/26ANaxxar Lions Vs TR1-0
08/01/26AMosta Vs TR2-2
19/12/25AGzira United Vs TR2-1
12/12/25AHibernians Vs TR1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD1.04
HomeLDLLD1.12
AwayLWLLL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%29%31%
AVG goals2.822.792.85
Over 1.5 %72%67%77%
Over 2.5 %50%46%54%
Over 3.5 %34%38%31%
Scored1.081.171.00
Conceded1.741.621.85
BTTS44%42%46%
Clean Sheet18%25%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Tarxien Rainbows
Tarxien Rainbows
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 0 Wins / 2 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL1.08
HomeLLLLL1.17
AwayLLLDL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%29%27%
AVG goals2.562.422.69
Over 1.5 %74%75%73%
Over 2.5 %50%42%58%
Over 3.5 %28%25%31%
Scored1.101.081.12
Conceded1.461.331.58
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet14%17%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3466
56%
1.9
5522+33
2.3
74%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.6
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3457
47%
1.7
4439+5
2.4
76%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3433
18%
1.0
4245-3
2.6
79%
44%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.3
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3424
12%
0.7
3359-26
2.7
76%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.7
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

← all matches