The model favours an away win, with a 45% chance for Valletta FC, 30% for a draw, and 25% for Mosta. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14.1%. Mosta’s home form shows they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded against similar opposition, while Valletta FC, on the road, averages 1.08 goals scored and only 0.62 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Under 5.5 (97.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.1%), Under 4.5 (91.8%) and Away +2 handicap (91.0%). Mosta are riding a four-game winning run, having edged Birkirkara 1-0, while Valletta come off a defeat to Marsaxlokk, losing 1-2. The match is likely to be tight, with the away side holding the edge.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mosta win
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC win
48.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mosta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.53
1.29
1.53
1.00
1.54
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.17
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.62
1.38
1.62
0.91
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valletta FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.83
1.29
1.00
1.15
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.23
0.83
1.29
1.00
1.15
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.6%
Under 1.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.8%
Under 2.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.6%
Under 3.5
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.2%
No
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1
13.2%
0-0
11.5%
0-2
10.1%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
5.5%
0-3
4.7%
Mosta goals ↓
Valletta FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
13%
10%
4.7%
1.7%
1
7.7%
14%
8.8%
4.1%
1.5%
2
3.9%
5.5%
3.9%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.1%
1.6%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mosta goals (down), columns = Valletta FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Mosta is 0.71 points worse than Valletta FC in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Mosta is 0.15 goals worse than Valletta FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Mosta is 0.99 goals worse than Valletta FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 0.76).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mosta or Draw
51.8%
Avg Implied -
22%
30%
48%
covers Mosta + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mosta or Valletta FC
70.2%
Avg Implied -
22%
30%
48%
covers Mosta + Valletta FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Valletta FC
77.9%
Avg Implied -
22%
30%
48%
covers Draw + Valletta FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mosta over/under 0.5
Over
58.2%
Under
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5
Over
21.7%
Under
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5
Over
75.5%
Under
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5
Over
41.0%
Under
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mosta, so a minus line means Mosta give that many goals of a start and Valletta FC receive them. At -1, Mosta must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mosta win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mosta)
Mosta -2
1.9%
Draw -2
5.8%
Valletta FC +2
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mosta)
Mosta -1
7.7%
Draw -1
14.4%
Valletta FC +1
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mosta)
Mosta +1
51.8%
Draw +1
24.0%
Valletta FC -1
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mosta)
Mosta +2
75.8%
Draw +2
14.9%
Valletta FC -2
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mosta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.65
0.65
0.54
0.77
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.75
0.69
0.69
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valletta FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.30
0.41
0.47
0.31
0.08
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.37
0.30
0.41
0.47
0.31
0.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
83% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mosta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.65
0.88
0.46
0.77
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.88
0.69
0.92
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valletta FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
0.88
0.53
0.85
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.87
0.53
0.88
0.53
0.85
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Mosta's squad is €1m less valuable than Valletta FC's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Mosta and Valletta FC have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Mosta and Valletta FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Mosta and Valletta FC have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Floriana
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
Balzan FC
Zabbar St. Patrick
Hibernians
Sliema Wanderers
Hamrun Spartans
Birzebbuga
Gzira United