Mosta vs Zabbar St. Patrick Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 43% chance for Zabbar St. Patrick and 28% for Mosta, while a draw sits at 29%. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a moderate-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.9% probability. Mosta, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.36 goals scored and 1.91 conceded. In contrast, Zabbar St. Patrick on the road against a similar side averages 1.31 goals scored and only 1.08 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 3.5 with a 75.8% chance and Over 1.5 with a 72.5% chance. Recent form hints that Mosta are on a four-game winning streak, while Zabbar St. Patrick are just coming off a draw. The match is expected to be tight, with the away side holding a slight edge.

The upset came as Mosta snapped a four-game winning streak to claim a 2-1 victory over Zabbar St. Patrick, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite of an away win that had a 43% probability. The prediction was wrong. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals, with a 75.8% chance, proved correct, as did the choice of Over 1.5 goals at 72.5%. Mosta’s home form had been strong, with a recent run of four wins, while Zabbar St. Patrick had been less consistent, coming off a draw. The final score of 2-1 confirmed a home win, a result the model had not anticipated.