Motherwell vs ST Johnstone Result & Analysis

Motherwell are the clear favourites, with a 55% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 19% chance of an away win. The model expects an average of 2.6 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.4% probability. Motherwell, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, typically score 1.5 goals and concede 0.7, while ST Johnstone, on the road, average 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 84.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 83.3%, Over 1.5 at 75.3% (hit), Over 21.5 fouls at 72.7%, Under 3.5 at 72.5% (hit), Over 2.5 cards at 71.2%, and Under 11.5 corners at 70.1%. The match is set to be a high-foul, low-card affair with a moderate goal tally.

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Motherwell, failed to deliver a home win, a 55% probability that the model had set aside. The final score was 1-2, giving ST Johnstone an away victory. The model’s prediction was incorrect. The model’s other selections performed well: Over 1.5 goals hit with a 75.3% probability, and Under 3.5 goals also hit at 72.5%. Motherwell’s form, after two straight defeats, had been shaky, while Johnstone’s recent run of two losses had left them vulnerable. The match finished with a 1-2 scoreline, confirming the away side’s triumph.