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Msida St. Joseph vs Swieqi United Result & Analysis

Date: 10/03/2024
Time: 15:30
Final 2-3
Msida St. Joseph
Msida St. Joseph
Vs
21%
28%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Swieqi United
Swieqi United
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Msida St. Joseph win✗ Miss
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United win✓ Hit
50.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Msida St. JosephMsida St. Joseph

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L20W01L01L01L23L02L02L02LA·PIE03/12H·TAR10/12H·MAR16/12A·ZAB06/01A·ZUR21/01H·LUQ28/01A·ST.03/02A·LUQ11/02H·LIJ17/02A·ZEJ03/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.940.621.750.402.10
vs Stronger (14)0.571.930.671.670.502.12
vs Similar (2)0.502.000.502.00--
vs Weaker (2)0.002.00--0.002.00
Clean sheet %6% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Swieqi United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W11D14L31W11D22D31W00D01LH·ZEB03/12A·ZEJ10/12H·SEN16/12A·MEL07/01A·FGU20/01H·ATT27/01A·LIJ03/02H·ZEB11/02A·ST.18/02H·TAR03/03
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.470.871.470.731.471.00
vs Stronger (17)1.350.711.290.431.400.90
vs Similar (8)1.621.001.600.801.671.33
vs Weaker (5)1.601.201.671.331.501.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Msida St. Joseph) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.1%
Under 1.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.1%
Under 2.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.8%
Under 3.5
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.9%
No
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
0-1
11.8%
0-2
10.1%
0-0
9.6%
1-2
9.4%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
5.6%
0-3
5.2%
Msida St. Joseph goals ↓
Swieqi United goals →
01234
09.6%12%10%5.2%2.0%
16.5%13%9.4%4.9%1.9%
23.6%5.6%4.3%2.2%0.9%
31.1%1.7%1.3%0.7%0.3%
40.3%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Msida St. Joseph goals (down), columns = Swieqi United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Melita
2.36
Zabbar St. Patrick
2.04
Marsa
1.60
Swieqi United
1.58
Fgura United
1.54
Pietà Hotspurs
1.52
Senglea Athletic
1.40
Zurrieq
1.40
Lija Athletic
1.33
Tarxien Rainbows
1.29
Luqa St. Andrew's
1.24
Zebbug Rangers
1.21
Zejtun Corinthians
1.12
St. Andrews
1.12
Attard
0.75
Msida St. Joseph
0.33
Msida St. Joseph is 1.25 points worse than Swieqi United in terms of average points per game (0.33 vs 1.58).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Melita
2.24
Marsa
1.76
Fgura United
1.62
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.52
Zebbug Rangers
1.50
Swieqi United
1.42
Pietà Hotspurs
1.40
Luqa St. Andrew's
1.32
Lija Athletic
1.29
Tarxien Rainbows
1.25
St. Andrews
1.16
Senglea Athletic
1.12
Zurrieq
1.08
Zejtun Corinthians
0.96
Attard
0.92
Msida St. Joseph
0.67
Msida St. Joseph is 0.75 goals worse than Swieqi United in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 1.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.80
Tarxien Rainbows
0.92
Swieqi United
0.96
Melita
0.96
Zejtun Corinthians
1.00
Senglea Athletic
1.08
Marsa
1.20
Pietà Hotspurs
1.24
Fgura United
1.33
St. Andrews
1.40
Zebbug Rangers
1.42
Zurrieq
1.44
Luqa St. Andrew's
1.60
Lija Athletic
1.83
Attard
1.92
Msida St. Joseph
2.21
Msida St. Joseph is 1.25 goals worse than Swieqi United in terms of goals conceded per game (2.21 vs 0.96).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Msida St. JosephMsida St. Joseph

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L00D10W01L00D00D11D01L01L00DA·PIE03/12H·TAR10/12H·MAR16/12A·ZAB06/01A·ZUR21/01H·LUQ28/01A·ST.03/02A·LUQ11/02H·LIJ17/02A·ZEJ03/03
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.111.060.120.880.101.20
vs Stronger (14)0.141.000.170.670.121.25
vs Similar (2)0.001.500.001.50--
vs Weaker (2)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %39% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Swieqi United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W11D14L01L01L00D00D00D00DH·ZEB03/12A·ZEJ10/12H·SEN16/12A·MEL07/01A·FGU20/01H·ATT27/01A·LIJ03/02H·ZEB11/02A·ST.18/02H·TAR03/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.530.460.230.650.76
vs Stronger (18)0.720.500.670.000.750.75
vs Similar (8)0.500.620.400.600.670.67
vs Weaker (4)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Msida St. Joseph) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Msida St. Joseph over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Msida St. Joseph over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Msida St. Joseph over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Msida St. JosephMsida St. Joseph

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L10W00D01L01L12L01L01L02LA·PIE03/12H·TAR10/12H·MAR16/12A·ZAB06/01A·ZUR21/01H·LUQ28/01A·ST.03/02A·LUQ11/02H·LIJ17/02A·ZEJ03/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.390.890.500.880.300.90
vs Stronger (14)0.430.930.501.000.380.88
vs Similar (2)0.500.500.500.50--
vs Weaker (2)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %28% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Swieqi United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D00D30W10W22D31W00D01LH·ZEB03/12A·ZEJ10/12H·SEN16/12A·MEL07/01A·FGU20/01H·ATT27/01A·LIJ03/02H·ZEB11/02A·ST.18/02H·TAR03/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.400.920.461.000.35
vs Stronger (18)0.780.390.500.500.920.33
vs Similar (8)1.120.381.200.201.000.67
vs Weaker (4)1.500.501.501.001.500.00
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Msida St. Joseph) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Msida St. Joseph over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Msida St. Joseph over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Msida St. Joseph over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.2%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.572.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZSP (24)
€4m
TR (8)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZSP (6)
€1m
TR (2)
€0m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZSP (6)
€1m
TR (2)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZSP (12)
€2m
TR (4)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
MSJ wins
0
Draws
1
SU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Msida St. Joseph vs Swieqi United · H/A from MSJ
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/23HMSJ Vs Swieqi United1-3

Msida St. JosephMsida St. Joseph

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/03/24AZejtun Corinthians Vs MSJ2-0
17/02/24HMSJ Vs Lija Athletic0-2
11/02/24ALuqa St. Andrew's Vs MSJ2-0
03/02/24ASt. Andrews Vs MSJ3-2
28/01/24HMSJ Vs Luqa St. Andrew's0-1
21/01/24AZurrieq Vs MSJ1-0
06/01/24AZabbar St. Patrick Vs MSJ1-0
16/12/23HMSJ Vs Marsa2-0
10/12/23HMSJ Vs Tarxien Rainbows0-2
03/12/23APietà Hotspurs Vs MSJ1-0

Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/03/24HSU Vs Tarxien Rainbows0-1
18/02/24ASt. Andrews Vs SU0-0
11/02/24HSU Vs Zebbug Rangers3-1
03/02/24ALija Athletic Vs SU2-2
27/01/24HSU Vs Attard1-1
20/01/24AFgura United Vs SU1-3
07/01/24AMelita Vs SU4-1
16/12/23HSU Vs Senglea Athletic1-1
10/12/23AZejtun Corinthians Vs SU0-1
03/12/23HSU Vs Zebbug Rangers0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Msida St. Joseph
Msida St. Joseph
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.33
HomeLLWLL0.75
AwayLLLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %11%25%0%
AVG goals2.442.382.50
Over 1.5 %67%75%60%
Over 2.5 %39%38%40%
Over 3.5 %28%25%30%
Scored0.500.620.40
Conceded1.941.752.10
BTTS22%25%20%
Clean Sheet6%12%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Swieqi United
Swieqi United
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWDL1.63
HomeLDDWL1.70
AwayWLWDD1.57
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %43%43%43%
AVG goals2.832.872.78
Over 1.5 %78%83%74%
Over 2.5 %52%43%61%
Over 3.5 %35%26%43%
Scored1.611.701.52
Conceded1.221.171.26
BTTS50%57%43%
Clean Sheet35%30%39%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1MelitaMelita2559
72%
2.4
5624+32
3.2
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
2Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick2551
60%
2.0
3820+18
2.3
60%
36%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.50.8
-
3MarsaMarsa2540
44%
1.6
4430+14
3.0
76%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
4Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United2438
42%
1.6
3423+11
2.4
62%
42%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.0
-
5Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs2538
44%
1.5
3531+4
2.6
68%
48%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
6Fgura UnitedFgura United2437
42%
1.5
3932+7
3.0
71%
54%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
7Senglea AthleticSenglea Athletic2535
36%
1.4
2827+1
2.2
60%
32%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.1
-
8ZurrieqZurrieq2535
40%
1.4
2736-9
2.5
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
9Lija AthleticLija Athletic2432
38%
1.3
3144-13
3.1
83%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
10Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows2431
29%
1.3
3022+8
2.2
46%
38%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.20.9
-
11Luqa St. AndrewLuqa St. Andrew's2531
32%
1.2
3340-7
2.9
72%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
12Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2429
33%
1.2
3634+2
2.9
79%
50%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
-
13St. AndrewsSt. Andrews2528
28%
1.1
2935-6
2.6
68%
48%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
14Zejtun CorinthiansZejtun Corinthians2427
25%
1.1
2324-1
2.0
54%
25%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
15AttardAttard2418
17%
0.8
2246-24
2.8
83%
46%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
16Msida St. JosephMsida St. Joseph248
8%
0.3
1653-37
2.9
75%
50%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Malta: Challenge League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

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