This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.40
2.00
0.93
1.47
1.87
vs Stronger (3)
2.33
3.33
3.00
2.00
1.00
6.00
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.04
1.83
0.75
1.58
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
2.33
2.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.5%
Under 1.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.4%
Under 2.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.1%
Under 3.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.3%
No
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
6.6%
0-1
5.7%
1-0
5.5%
0-2 ✓
5.4%
0-0
5.3%
MTK Budapest goals ↓
Paks goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
5.7%
5.4%
2.9%
1.2%
1
5.5%
12%
8.5%
4.5%
1.8%
2
5.2%
8.3%
6.6%
3.5%
1.4%
3
2.7%
4.3%
3.5%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.1%
1.7%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MTK Budapest goals (down), columns = Paks goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.24
Paks
1.76
Puskas Academy
1.67
Fehérvár FC
1.64
Debreceni VSC
1.45
Diosgyori VTK
1.36
Kecskeméti TE
1.36
MTK Budapest
1.33
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.30
Ujpest
1.12
Kisvarda FC
0.94
Mezokovesd-zsory
0.64
MTK Budapest is 0.42 points worse than Paks in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.42
Puskas Academy
1.82
Fehérvár FC
1.67
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.64
Paks
1.55
Diosgyori VTK
1.52
Debreceni VSC
1.48
Kecskeméti TE
1.36
Ujpest
1.36
MTK Budapest
1.30
Kisvarda FC
1.21
Mezokovesd-zsory
0.94
MTK Budapest is 0.24 goals worse than Paks in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ferencvarosi TC
0.91
Puskas Academy
1.06
Fehérvár FC
1.21
Paks
1.27
Kecskeméti TE
1.36
Debreceni VSC
1.45
Kisvarda FC
1.67
Diosgyori VTK
1.70
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.82
MTK Budapest
1.88
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.91
Ujpest
2.03
MTK Budapest is 0.61 goals worse than Paks in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.27).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
65%
Debreceni VSC
57%
Puskas Academy
52%
Diosgyori VTK
52%
Kecskeméti TE
49%
Ujpest
49%
Fehérvár FC
48%
Mezokovesd-zsory
48%
MTK Budapest
47%
Kisvarda FC
47%
Paks
45%
Zalaegerszegi TE
39%
MTK Budapest is 2.6 percentage points better than Paks in terms of average possession (47% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
MTK Budapest
For 3.3 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 12.9 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paks
For 6.6 · Against 6.2 · Total 12.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 18.6 · Total 33.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
MTK Budapest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.8
10.1
1.5
1.0
2.0
22.9
24.0
21.8
vs Stronger (2)
10.5
11.0
10.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
22.0
-
22.0
vs Similar (30)
9.1
8.3
9.8
2.1
1.2
3.0
23.8
26.0
21.7
vs Weaker (18)
11.5
10.0
13.0
0.4
0.2
0.6
18.0
18.0
-
% over line
55%
44%
64%
16%
8%
24%
50%
50%
50%
% under line
45%
56%
36%
84%
92%
76%
50%
50%
50%
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.3
11.6
3.6
3.5
3.6
33.6
37.8
29.5
vs Stronger (5)
11.8
12.3
10.0
6.2
7.0
5.0
40.0
40.0
-
vs Similar (38)
11.8
11.1
12.5
3.4
2.8
3.9
32.3
37.0
27.7
vs Weaker (7)
9.7
11.0
8.3
2.9
4.3
1.8
35.0
-
35.0
% over line
78%
79%
76%
48%
44%
52%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
22%
21%
24%
52%
56%
48%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
11.7
Zalaegerszegi TE
10.7
Diosgyori VTK
10.6
Kecskeméti TE
10.0
Mezokovesd-zsory
9.8
Kisvarda FC
9.8
Ferencvarosi TC
9.7
MTK Budapest
9.5
Fehérvár FC
9.4
Puskas Academy
9.4
Debreceni VSC
9.4
Ujpest
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fehérvár FC
5.2
Puskas Academy
5.2
Kecskeméti TE
5.1
Paks
5.1
Ferencvarosi TC
4.8
Zalaegerszegi TE
4.6
Ujpest
4.6
Debreceni VSC
4.3
Kisvarda FC
4.2
Mezokovesd-zsory
4.2
Diosgyori VTK
4.1
MTK Budapest
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Paks
33.6
Kecskeméti TE
29.8
Puskas Academy
29.1
Debreceni VSC
28.5
Mezokovesd-zsory
27.2
Ujpest
25.4
Zalaegerszegi TE
25.4
Kisvarda FC
25.2
Ferencvarosi TC
25.2
Diosgyori VTK
24.5
MTK Budapest
22.9
Fehérvár FC
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.8%
Under 9.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.4%
Under 3.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
84.2%
Under 21.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
MTK Budapest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.68
0.40
0.50
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
1.00
0.13
0.67
1.33
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.33
1.50
0.50
1.00
6.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MTK Budapest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
MTK Budapest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.00
0.60
0.87
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.86
0.70
0.70
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.67
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.54
0.83
0.75
0.83
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MTK Budapest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
MTK Budapest
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rajmund Molnár33%
István Bognár25%
Krisztián Németh25%
Marin Jurina13%
Khaly Thiam12%
Zoltán Stieber12%
Nemanja Antonov12%
Viktor Hei11%
Márk Kosznovszky9%
Zsombor Nagy8%
Artúr Horváth8%
Bence Végh6%
Gergő Kocsis6%
Benedek Varju5%
Tamás Kádár0%
Patrik Demjén0%
Dániel Vadnai0%
Gergő Rácz0%
Mihály Kata0%
Nikolas Špalek0%
Richie Ennin0%
Mátyás Kovács0%
Patrik Kovács0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Viktor Hei32%
Marin Jurina27%
Benedek Varju26%
Gergő Kocsis22%
Rajmund Molnár22%
Mihály Kata21%
Nikolas Špalek17%
Patrik Kovács17%
Khaly Thiam12%
Krisztián Németh12%
Bence Végh12%
Nemanja Antonov12%
István Bognár10%
Zsombor Nagy8%
Artúr Horváth8%
Tamás Kádár5%
Patrik Demjén0%
Dániel Vadnai0%
Gergő Rácz0%
Zoltán Stieber0%
Richie Ennin0%
Márk Kosznovszky0%
Mátyás Kovács0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nemanja Antonov29%
Krisztián Németh25%
István Bognár20%
Zoltán Stieber19%
Rajmund Molnár11%
Zsombor Nagy8%
Mátyás Kovács8%
Patrik Kovács8%
Bence Végh6%
Gergő Kocsis6%
Viktor Hei5%
Tamás Kádár0%
Khaly Thiam0%
Patrik Demjén0%
Dániel Vadnai0%
Gergő Rácz0%
Benedek Varju0%
Mihály Kata0%
Nikolas Špalek0%
Richie Ennin0%
Marin Jurina0%
Márk Kosznovszky0%
Artúr Horváth0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Krisztián Németh19%
Patrik Kovács17%
Nemanja Antonov12%
István Bognár10%
Zsombor Nagy8%
Marin Jurina7%
Zoltán Stieber6%
Tamás Kádár0%
Khaly Thiam0%
Gergő Kocsis0%
Patrik Demjén0%
Dániel Vadnai0%
Gergő Rácz0%
Benedek Varju0%
Mihály Kata0%
Nikolas Špalek0%
Richie Ennin0%
Viktor Hei0%
Márk Kosznovszky0%
Rajmund Molnár0%
Artúr Horváth0%
Mátyás Kovács0%
Bence Végh0%
Paks
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Norbert Könyves40%
József Windecker31%
János Hahn15%
Bálint Szabó13%
Szabolcs Mezei13%
Kristóf Papp10%
Zsolt Haraszti7%
Balázs Balogh7%
János Szabó7%
Bence Lenzsér6%
Dániel Böde5%
Norbert Szélpál0%
Alen Skribek0%
Barna Tóth0%
Ákos Kinyik0%
Péter Szappanos0%
Erik Silye0%
Attila Osváth0%
Bálint Vécsei0%
Bence Kocsis0%
Gabor Vas0%
Barnabás Simon0%
Krisztián Kovács0%
Kevin Horvath0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bence Lenzsér31%
Ákos Kinyik30%
Krisztián Kovács29%
Bálint Szabó27%
János Hahn23%
József Windecker23%
Barna Tóth20%
Bálint Vécsei20%
Attila Osváth19%
Kristóf Papp15%
Norbert Könyves15%
Norbert Szélpál14%
Kevin Horvath14%
Szabolcs Mezei13%
János Szabó13%
Gabor Vas13%
Dániel Böde10%
Zsolt Haraszti7%
Balázs Balogh7%
Péter Szappanos6%
Alen Skribek0%
Erik Silye0%
Bence Kocsis0%
Barnabás Simon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alen Skribek29%
Kristóf Papp15%
Dániel Böde10%
Zsolt Haraszti7%
Bálint Szabó7%
Szabolcs Mezei7%
Balázs Balogh7%
János Szabó7%
Krisztián Kovács6%
Norbert Könyves5%
Norbert Szélpál0%
Barna Tóth0%
Ákos Kinyik0%
Péter Szappanos0%
Erik Silye0%
Attila Osváth0%
Bence Lenzsér0%
János Hahn0%
József Windecker0%
Bálint Vécsei0%
Bence Kocsis0%
Gabor Vas0%
Barnabás Simon0%
Kevin Horvath0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Norbert Könyves35%
József Windecker31%
Dániel Böde14%
Barna Tóth10%
János Hahn8%
Zsolt Haraszti7%
Bálint Szabó7%
Krisztián Kovács6%
Norbert Szélpál0%
Szabolcs Mezei0%
Alen Skribek0%
Ákos Kinyik0%
Péter Szappanos0%
Erik Silye0%
Attila Osváth0%
Balázs Balogh0%
Bence Lenzsér0%
János Szabó0%
Kristóf Papp0%
Bálint Vécsei0%
Bence Kocsis0%
Gabor Vas0%
Barnabás Simon0%
Kevin Horvath0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
MB (23)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
KT (22)
€3m
DV (18)
€3m
FF (22)
€2m
MEZ (17)
€2m
MTK Budapest's squad is €3m more valuable than Paks's (€11m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
MB (9)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
KT (9)
€1m
FF (10)
€1m
MEZ (7)
€1m
DV (5)
€1m
MTK Budapest and Paks have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
MB (4)
€4m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
DV (4)
€1m
KT (2)
€0m
FF (3)
€0m
MEZ (1)
€0m
MTK Budapest's midfield is €2m more valuable than Paks's (€4m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
MB (10)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
DV (9)
€1m
KT (11)
€1m
FF (9)
€1m
MEZ (9)
€1m
MTK Budapest's defence is €1m more valuable than Paks's (€5m vs €4m).
Hungary: NB I 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ferencvarosi TC
Puskas Academy
Fehérvár FC
Debreceni VSC
Kecskeméti TE
Diosgyori VTK
Zalaegerszegi TE
Ujpest
Kisvarda FC
Mezokovesd-zsory