The encounter between MTK Budapest and Vasas is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 35% for a home victory, 28% for a draw and 36% for an away win, making the latter the most likely outcome. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, with the most probable total being two goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model sees as most likely is 1-1, carrying a 13.6% chance. MTK, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.92 goals scored and 1.42 conceded, while Vasas, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.29 conceded against comparable opposition. The suggested picks are: Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Under 5.5 (94.5%), Over 19.5 fouls (88.6%), Under 4.5 (86.7%), and Home under 2.5 goals (85.2%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
MTK Budapest win
37.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vasas win
34.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
MTK Budapest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.90
2.00
1.60
1.33
2.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (25)
1.68
1.84
1.92
1.42
1.46
2.23
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.33
3.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.77
2.13
0.73
1.53
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
1.93
1.07
1.88
0.88
2.00
1.29
vs Weaker (13)
1.77
0.54
2.33
0.67
1.29
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.9%
Under 1.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.0%
Under 2.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.0%
Under 3.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.6%
No
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
2-1
8.4%
1-0
8.2%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
8.0%
0-1
7.8%
2-0
6.5%
0-2
5.9%
MTK Budapest goals ↓
Vasas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
7.8%
5.9%
2.6%
0.8%
1
8.2%
14%
8.0%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.5%
8.4%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.0%
3.9%
2.5%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MTK Budapest goals (down), columns = Vasas goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.00
Puskas Academy
2.00
Ujpest
1.67
Gyori ETO FC
1.50
MTK Budapest
1.50
Paks
1.33
Vasas
1.33
Budapest Honved
1.20
Nyiregyhaza
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.00
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.50
MTK Budapest is 0.17 points better than Vasas in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paks
2.17
Ujpest
2.17
MTK Budapest
2.17
Gyori ETO FC
1.83
Vasas
1.67
Puskas Academy
1.67
Ferencvarosi TC
1.60
Budapest Honved
1.60
Kisvarda FC
1.17
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Nyiregyhaza
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.83
MTK Budapest is 0.50 goals better than Vasas in terms of goals scored per game (2.17 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ferencvarosi TC
1.00
Gyori ETO FC
1.17
Vasas
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.33
Puskas Academy
1.33
Debreceni VSC
1.50
Budapest Honved
1.60
Ujpest
1.67
MTK Budapest
1.67
Nyiregyhaza
1.67
Paks
2.17
Zalaegerszegi TE
2.50
MTK Budapest is 0.50 goals worse than Vasas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
58%
Debreceni VSC
55%
Gyori ETO FC
53%
Budapest Honved
52%
Ujpest
51%
Nyiregyhaza
51%
Paks
50%
MTK Budapest
50%
Zalaegerszegi TE
49%
Puskas Academy
45%
Vasas
43%
Kisvarda FC
42%
MTK Budapest is 7.0 percentage points better than Vasas in terms of average possession (50% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
MTK Budapest
For 3.7 · Against 6.8 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 13.8 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vasas
For 1.5 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 10.0 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
MTK Budapest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
8.9
11.6
2.8
2.8
2.9
24.6
24.5
24.8
vs Stronger (3)
10.7
9.0
14.0
3.0
4.0
1.0
25.7
25.0
27.0
vs Similar (42)
10.2
8.9
11.4
3.1
2.9
3.4
24.5
24.5
24.6
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
58%
41%
75%
44%
38%
50%
70%
71%
69%
% under line
42%
59%
25%
56%
62%
50%
30%
29%
31%
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasas
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
4.5
5.0
4.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
23.0
21.0
25.0
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
4.5
5.0
4.0
0.3
0.4
0.3
23.0
21.0
25.0
vs Weaker (24)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
2%
4%
0%
50%
0%
100%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
98%
96%
100%
50%
100%
0%
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nyiregyhaza
11.0
Paks
10.4
Gyori ETO FC
10.0
Debreceni VSC
9.9
Ujpest
9.9
Kisvarda FC
9.9
MTK Budapest
9.8
Puskas Academy
9.7
Ferencvarosi TC
9.7
Budapest Honved
9.5
Zalaegerszegi TE
8.9
Vasas
4.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Nyiregyhaza
6.0
Paks
5.2
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.1
Debreceni VSC
5.1
Ujpest
5.0
Puskas Academy
4.8
Gyori ETO FC
4.8
Ferencvarosi TC
4.7
MTK Budapest
4.4
Budapest Honved
4.1
Kisvarda FC
4.1
Vasas
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Nyiregyhaza
32.0
Paks
28.6
Ferencvarosi TC
27.9
Debreceni VSC
27.8
Puskas Academy
27.7
Ujpest
26.2
Gyori ETO FC
24.9
Zalaegerszegi TE
24.8
MTK Budapest
24.6
Kisvarda FC
24.1
Vasas
23.0
Budapest Honved
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
38.4%
Under 9.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.9%
Under 3.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
78.8%
Under 21.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
MTK Budapest or Draw
65.7%
Avg Implied -
37%
28%
34%
covers MTK Budapest + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest or Vasas
71.6%
Avg Implied -
37%
28%
34%
covers MTK Budapest + Vasas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vasas
62.7%
Avg Implied -
37%
28%
34%
covers Draw + Vasas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
MTK Budapest over/under 0.5
Over
74.6%
Under
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 1.5
Over
39.8%
Under
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 2.5
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 0.5
Over
72.9%
Under
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 1.5
Over
37.5%
Under
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 2.5
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to MTK Budapest, so a minus line means MTK Budapest give that many goals of a start and Vasas receive them. At -1, MTK Budapest must win by two or more to land; a one-goal MTK Budapest win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (MTK Budapest)
MTK Budapest -2
6.4%
Draw -2
11.3%
Vasas +2
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (MTK Budapest)
MTK Budapest -1
17.7%
Draw -1
19.6%
Vasas +1
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (MTK Budapest)
MTK Budapest +1
65.7%
Draw +1
18.6%
Vasas -1
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (MTK Budapest)
MTK Budapest +2
84.3%
Draw +2
10.3%
Vasas -2
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
MTK Budapest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.67
0.93
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.80
0.58
0.83
0.69
0.77
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.17
0.80
0.13
0.60
0.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.20
0.75
0.12
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (13)
0.69
0.15
0.83
0.17
0.57
0.14
Clean sheet %
83% (+59pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MTK Budapest over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
MTK Budapest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.07
1.33
0.67
0.73
1.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.04
1.04
1.33
0.58
0.77
1.46
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.60
1.33
0.60
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.87
1.12
0.75
1.29
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.08
0.38
1.50
0.50
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MTK Budapest over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
MTK Budapest
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gábor Jurek75%
Zalán Kerezsi75%
István Bognár33%
Milán Klausz33%
Stipe Radić0%
Ilia Beriashvili0%
Patrik Demjén0%
György Komáromi0%
Benedek Varju0%
Mihály Kata0%
Vilius Armalas0%
Adrian Zeljković0%
Patrik Kovács0%
Krisztián László0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stipe Radić33%
Krisztián László33%
György Komáromi25%
Gábor Jurek25%
Ilia Beriashvili0%
Patrik Demjén0%
Benedek Varju0%
István Bognár0%
Mihály Kata0%
Vilius Armalas0%
Adrian Zeljković0%
Zalán Kerezsi0%
Milán Klausz0%
Patrik Kovács0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
István Bognár67%
Zalán Kerezsi50%
György Komáromi25%
Gábor Jurek25%
Stipe Radić0%
Ilia Beriashvili0%
Patrik Demjén0%
Benedek Varju0%
Mihály Kata0%
Vilius Armalas0%
Adrian Zeljković0%
Milán Klausz0%
Patrik Kovács0%
Krisztián László0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gábor Jurek50%
Milán Klausz33%
Zalán Kerezsi25%
Stipe Radić0%
Ilia Beriashvili0%
Patrik Demjén0%
György Komáromi0%
Benedek Varju0%
István Bognár0%
Mihály Kata0%
Vilius Armalas0%
Adrian Zeljković0%
Patrik Kovács0%
Krisztián László0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
GEF (28)
€16m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
MB (23)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
NYI (29)
€7m
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
BH (25)
€5m
MTK Budapest's squad is €4m more valuable than Vasas's (€11m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
GEF (10)
€7m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
NYI (13)
€3m
VAS (11)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
MB (9)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
BH (6)
€1m
MTK Budapest and Vasas have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
MB (4)
€4m
GEF (6)
€4m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
VAS (7)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
NYI (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
MTK Budapest's midfield is €2m more valuable than Vasas's (€4m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
GEF (12)
€5m
MB (10)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
NYI (11)
€3m
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
MTK Budapest's defence is €3m more valuable than Vasas's (€5m vs €2m).
Hungary: NB I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Puskas Academy
Ujpest
Ferencvarosi TC
Gyori ETO FC
Paks
Nyiregyhaza
Budapest Honved
Kisvarda FC
Debreceni VSC
Zalaegerszegi TE