MTK Budapest are tipped to win, with a 46 % chance of a home victory, 25 % for a draw and 28 % for a Zalaegerszegi TE win. The model expects an average of 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 22 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.6 % chance. MTK, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 2.08 goals scored and 1.31 conceded, while Zalaegerszegi TE, on the road, averages 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (84.6 %), Over 1.5 (83.0 %), Under 11.5 corners (81.8 %), Over 2.5 cards (81.5 % but marked miss), Under 10.5 corners (72.5 %), Over 21.5 fouls (72.3 %) and Under 5.5 cards (71.9 %). The match is set for a hard-fought contest, with MTK’s recent win and Zalaegerszegi’s three-game losing streak hinting at a decisive home result.
Results analysis
MTK Budapest’s win extends their recent run, and the Pythia model’s prediction of a home victory was spot on, with a 46 % chance assigned to the outcome. The final score was 3-0, confirming the model’s pick. The model also forecasted a 3-goal total, a 22 % probability for the 2-goal outcome, and highlighted a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 11.6 %. Among the suggested selections, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 84.6 %, Over 1.5 goals at 83.0 %, Under 11.5 corners at 81.8 %, Under 10.5 corners at 72.5 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 72.3 %, and Under 5.5 cards at 71.9 % all proved correct, while Over 2.5 cards at 81.5 % missed. The model’s overall accuracy was strong, with most picks landing as predicted.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
MTK Budapest win✓ Hit
46.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE win✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
MTK Budapest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.77
2.20
1.40
1.53
2.13
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (27)
1.81
1.67
2.08
1.31
1.57
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Zalaegerszegi TE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zalaegerszegi TE
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.07
1.67
0.73
1.07
1.40
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.22
1.50
1.50
0.80
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.48
1.00
1.73
0.45
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.5%
Under 2.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.2%
Under 3.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.6%
No
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
7.1%
2-0
6.9%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
6.3%
3-1
5.5%
0-0
5.4%
MTK Budapest goals ↓
Zalaegerszegi TE goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
4.9%
4.0%
1.8%
0.6%
1
6.7%
12%
7.1%
3.2%
1.1%
2
6.9%
9.3%
6.3%
2.8%
1.0%
3
4.1%
5.5%
3.7%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.8%
2.5%
1.7%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MTK Budapest goals (down), columns = Zalaegerszegi TE goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Gyori ETO FC
2.09
Ferencvarosi TC
2.06
Paks
1.61
Debreceni VSC
1.61
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.45
Puskas Academy
1.39
Vasas
1.32
Budapest Honved
1.21
Kisvarda FC
1.21
Nyiregyhaza
1.21
Ujpest
1.21
MTK Budapest
1.15
MTK Budapest is 0.30 points worse than Zalaegerszegi TE in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.03
Gyori ETO FC
1.97
Paks
1.91
MTK Budapest
1.67
Debreceni VSC
1.55
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.48
Ujpest
1.45
Vasas
1.44
Nyiregyhaza
1.42
Budapest Honved
1.32
Puskas Academy
1.30
Kisvarda FC
1.09
MTK Budapest is 0.18 goals better than Zalaegerszegi TE in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gyori ETO FC
0.91
Ferencvarosi TC
0.94
Debreceni VSC
1.24
Puskas Academy
1.30
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.30
Paks
1.39
Kisvarda FC
1.48
Vasas
1.56
Budapest Honved
1.70
Nyiregyhaza
1.73
Ujpest
1.73
MTK Budapest
1.88
MTK Budapest is 0.58 goals worse than Zalaegerszegi TE in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
57%
Gyori ETO FC
55%
Ujpest
53%
Zalaegerszegi TE
51%
Debreceni VSC
50%
MTK Budapest
49%
Kisvarda FC
49%
Paks
47%
Puskas Academy
44%
MTK Budapest is 1.4 percentage points worse than Zalaegerszegi TE in terms of average possession (49% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
MTK Budapest
For 4.3 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 12.4 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Zalaegerszegi TE
For 2.8 · Against 4.6 · Total 7.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 12.2 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
MTK Budapest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.2
11.2
2.9
2.7
3.1
24.7
24.1
25.3
vs Stronger (5)
11.5
10.7
14.0
2.6
4.0
0.5
25.5
25.0
27.0
vs Similar (44)
10.1
8.9
11.0
3.0
2.7
3.3
24.6
23.8
25.2
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
59%
44%
72%
44%
40%
48%
74%
69%
78%
% under line
41%
56%
28%
56%
60%
52%
26%
31%
22%
This opponent (Zalaegerszegi TE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zalaegerszegi TE
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.8
9.0
3.1
3.4
2.8
24.3
24.9
23.7
vs Stronger (13)
9.1
9.0
9.3
2.6
3.4
1.7
22.0
21.0
23.7
vs Similar (37)
8.8
8.7
8.9
3.3
3.4
3.2
25.1
26.5
23.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
41%
47%
33%
42%
50%
33%
69%
76%
60%
% under line
59%
53%
67%
58%
50%
67%
31%
24%
40%
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
10.7
Ujpest
9.9
Kisvarda FC
9.8
Ferencvarosi TC
9.7
Budapest Honved
9.7
MTK Budapest
9.6
Debreceni VSC
9.5
Puskas Academy
9.5
Zalaegerszegi TE
9.3
Gyori ETO FC
9.2
Vasas
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Debreceni VSC
5.2
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.1
Paks
5.1
Vasas
5.0
Ujpest
5.0
Puskas Academy
4.9
Gyori ETO FC
4.8
Ferencvarosi TC
4.6
Budapest Honved
4.4
MTK Budapest
4.3
Kisvarda FC
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Paks
28.5
Debreceni VSC
28.1
Ferencvarosi TC
27.5
Puskas Academy
27.4
Ujpest
25.7
Zalaegerszegi TE
25.0
MTK Budapest
24.4
Gyori ETO FC
24.1
Kisvarda FC
23.8
Vasas
21.0
Budapest Honved
18.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
39.2%
Under 9.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
64.1%
Under 3.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
72.3%
Under 21.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
MTK Budapest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.80
0.80
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.74
0.77
0.77
0.64
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Zalaegerszegi TE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zalaegerszegi TE
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.43
0.47
0.33
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.56
0.50
1.00
0.20
0.20
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.38
0.45
0.09
0.30
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MTK Budapest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
MTK Budapest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.00
1.40
0.60
0.93
1.40
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.11
0.93
1.31
0.54
0.93
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zalaegerszegi TE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zalaegerszegi TE
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.20
0.40
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (21)
1.10
0.62
1.27
0.36
0.90
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MTK Budapest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Hungary: NB I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →