Muğlaspor are tipped to lift the trophy, with a 44% chance of victory, a 29% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of Vanspor FK winning. The match is expected to see 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.7% probability. Muğlaspor, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.25 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Vanspor FK, on the road, average 1.54 goals scored and 1.85 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.2%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Under 5.5 (95.6%) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.3%). Muğlaspor’s recent form shows a two-game winning streak, while Vanspor FK comes off a draw.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Muğlaspor win
44.0%
Avg Implied 50.3% · @ 1.81
Edge
-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Draw
28.8%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.27
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Betano
3.35
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Vanspor FK win
27.2%
Avg Implied 21.8% · @ 4.19
Edge
+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
4.50
Dafabet
4.50
Pinnacle
4.40
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Muğlaspor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.60
1.25
1.00
1.50
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.00
0.75
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Vanspor FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vanspor FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.50
1.20
1.20
1.33
1.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (26)
1.35
1.50
1.15
1.15
1.54
1.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Muğlaspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.1%
@ 1.33+3.9%
Under 1.5
26.9%
@ 3.00-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.04
BetVictor
3.00
Betano
2.87
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.4%
@ 2.06+1.3%
Under 2.5
53.6%
@ 1.69-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Marathonbet
2.09
Betano
2.07
Under
Unibet
1.75
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
BetVictor
1.67
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.9%
@ 3.57-0.9%
Under 3.5
75.1%
@ 1.24+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.80
Pinnacle
3.78
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Under
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Both teams to score
Yes
51.9%
@ 1.91+3.6%
No
48.1%
@ 1.78-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.89
No
Unibet
1.87
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.78
BetVictor
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 6.08+6.6%
1-0
10.2%@ 5.78+2.7%
0-0
9.2%@ 7.71+3.6%
2-1
9.0%@ 7.86+3.5%
2-0
8.3%@ 7.34+2.4%
0-1
7.4%@ 9.82+3.0%
1-2
6.8%@ 13.00+3.4%
2-2
4.9%@ 15.43+2.1%
Muğlaspor goals ↓
Vanspor FK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
7.4%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
6.8%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.0%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.0%
4.3%
2.4%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Muğlaspor goals (down), columns = Vanspor FK goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Batman Petrolspor
2.60
Bursaspor
2.40
Sarıyer
2.00
Kayserispor
2.00
Iğdır FK
1.80
Mardin 1969
1.80
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Fatih Karagümrük
1.60
Muğlaspor
1.60
Bandırmaspor
1.20
Antalyaspor
1.20
Pendikspor
1.00
Vanspor FK
0.80
Esenler Erokspor
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Sivasspor
0.60
Ümraniyespor
0.60
İstanbulspor
0.40
Boluspor
0.00
Muğlaspor is 0.80 points better than Vanspor FK in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Keçiörengücü
2.40
Batman Petrolspor
2.00
Bursaspor
2.00
Manisa F.K.
2.00
Antalyaspor
1.60
Sarıyer
1.60
Mardin 1969
1.60
Iğdır FK
1.40
Pendikspor
1.40
Kayserispor
1.40
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Vanspor FK
1.00
Bandırmaspor
1.00
Sivasspor
1.00
İstanbulspor
1.00
Ümraniyespor
0.80
Muğlaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.40
Bodrum FK
0.40
Boluspor
0.20
Muğlaspor is 0.40 goals worse than Vanspor FK in terms of goals scored per game (0.60 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Muğlaspor
0.40
Bandırmaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.60
Mardin 1969
0.60
Bursaspor
0.60
Kayserispor
0.60
Sarıyer
0.80
Batman Petrolspor
0.80
Iğdır FK
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Ümraniyespor
1.20
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Sivasspor
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Antalyaspor
2.00
Vanspor FK
2.20
Boluspor
2.20
Pendikspor
2.20
İstanbulspor
2.60
Muğlaspor is 1.80 goals better than Vanspor FK in terms of goals conceded per game (0.40 vs 2.20).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Esenler Erokspor
61%
Bandırmaspor
60%
Bursaspor
59%
Manisa F.K.
55%
Antalyaspor
55%
Kayserispor
53%
Batman Petrolspor
52%
Ümraniyespor
52%
Pendikspor
51%
Sarıyer
50%
Iğdır FK
49%
Mardin 1969
49%
Sivasspor
48%
Bodrum FK
46%
Keçiörengücü
45%
Fatih Karagümrük
45%
İstanbulspor
44%
Muğlaspor
43%
Vanspor FK
42%
Boluspor
41%
Muğlaspor is 1.6 percentage points better than Vanspor FK in terms of average possession (43% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Muğlaspor
For 2.8 · Against 3.5 · Total 6.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 3.5 · Total 6.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 16.2 · Total 30.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vanspor FK
For 4.5 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 12.2 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Muğlaspor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (10)
6.2
5.0
7.5
2.7
2.5
2.8
30.8
34.5
27.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
6.2
5.0
7.5
3.4
2.5
4.2
30.8
34.5
27.0
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
25%
0%
50%
40%
50%
33%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
75%
100%
50%
60%
50%
67%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Vanspor FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vanspor FK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (47)
8.3
8.7
7.8
4.6
4.5
4.6
27.8
27.0
28.6
vs Stronger (6)
8.6
8.0
9.5
4.0
4.7
3.3
28.0
29.3
26.0
vs Similar (41)
8.2
8.8
7.6
4.6
4.4
4.8
27.8
26.7
28.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
33%
41%
24%
64%
68%
60%
88%
86%
90%
% under line
67%
59%
76%
36%
32%
40%
12%
14%
10%
This opponent (Muğlaspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kayserispor
10.0
Sivasspor
9.5
Antalyaspor
9.1
Bursaspor
9.1
Bandırmaspor
9.1
Iğdır FK
9.0
Bodrum FK
8.9
Ümraniyespor
8.9
Fatih Karagümrük
8.9
Esenler Erokspor
8.8
Manisa F.K.
8.7
Mardin 1969
8.6
İstanbulspor
8.4
Pendikspor
8.4
Boluspor
8.3
Vanspor FK
8.3
Keçiörengücü
8.2
Batman Petrolspor
8.0
Sarıyer
7.8
Muğlaspor
6.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Muğlaspor
6.8
Batman Petrolspor
5.8
Antalyaspor
5.3
Pendikspor
5.1
Sarıyer
5.1
Vanspor FK
5.1
Boluspor
5.1
Manisa F.K.
5.0
Sivasspor
5.0
Esenler Erokspor
4.9
Iğdır FK
4.9
Bandırmaspor
4.7
İstanbulspor
4.7
Keçiörengücü
4.6
Kayserispor
4.6
Bursaspor
4.5
Fatih Karagümrük
4.3
Ümraniyespor
4.3
Bodrum FK
4.2
Mardin 1969
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Muğlaspor
30.8
Bursaspor
28.9
Fatih Karagümrük
28.7
Vanspor FK
27.8
Antalyaspor
27.4
Pendikspor
26.5
Batman Petrolspor
26.2
Mardin 1969
25.6
Boluspor
25.6
Kayserispor
24.8
Bandırmaspor
24.2
Bodrum FK
23.9
Iğdır FK
23.8
Keçiörengücü
23.7
Sivasspor
23.7
Manisa F.K.
23.6
Sarıyer
23.4
Ümraniyespor
23.2
İstanbulspor
23.1
Esenler Erokspor
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
23.9%
Under 9.5
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
74.0%
Under 3.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.5%
Under 21.5
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Muğlaspor or Draw
72.8%
Avg Implied 78.0% · @ 1.18
Edge
-5.2%
44%
29%
27%
covers Muğlaspor + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Muğlaspor or Vanspor FK
71.2%
Avg Implied 72.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.4%
44%
29%
27%
covers Muğlaspor + Vanspor FK
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Draw or Vanspor FK
56.0%
Avg Implied 49.5% · @ 1.86
Edge
+6.6%
44%
29%
27%
covers Draw + Vanspor FK
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
BetVictor
1.90
Betfair
1.83
William Hil
1.83
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Muğlaspor over/under 0.5
Over
76.4%
@ 1.21-0.7%
Under
23.6%
@ 4.05+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.00
Betano
4.00
1xBet
3.86
Muğlaspor over/under 1.5
Over
42.3%
@ 2.01-3.8%
Under
57.7%
@ 1.72+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.10
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.04
Betano
2.00
Under
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Muğlaspor over/under 2.5
Over
17.7%
@ 4.14-4.6%
Under
82.3%
@ 1.19+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Pinnacle
4.02
Bet365
4.00
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Muğlaspor over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
@ 9.18-4.3%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.04+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
9.40
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Vanspor FK over/under 0.5
Over
66.3%
@ 1.56+7.0%
Under
33.7%
@ 2.27-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
Under
Pinnacle
2.39
Unibet
2.33
1xBet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Vanspor FK over/under 1.5
Over
29.6%
@ 3.84+5.5%
Under
70.4%
@ 1.22-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
3.88
Betano
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Under
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Vanspor FK over/under 2.5
Over
9.7%
@ 10.64+0.9%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.03-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
10.00
Marathonbet
9.60
1xBet
9.60
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Vanspor FK over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
@ 41.00-97.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Muğlaspor, so a minus line means Muğlaspor give that many goals of a start and Vanspor FK receive them. At -1, Muğlaspor must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Muğlaspor win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Muğlaspor)
Muğlaspor -2
8.5%
@ 6.90-4.5%
Draw -2
13.6%
@ 5.08-4.0%
Vanspor FK +2
78.0%
@ 1.29+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
6.70
Bet365
6.50
Draw
Marathonbet
5.25
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Handicap -1 (Muğlaspor)
Muğlaspor -1
22.0%
@ 3.15-5.5%
Draw -1
21.9%
@ 3.38-3.6%
Vanspor FK +1
56.0%
@ 1.84+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.28
Bet365
3.10
Unibet
2.80
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.42
Unibet
3.00
Away
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
1.83
Marathonbet
1.78
Unibet
1.77
Handicap +1 (Muğlaspor)
Muğlaspor +1
72.8%
@ 1.17-3.6%
Draw +1
16.2%
@ 5.97+1.3%
Vanspor FK -1
11.0%
@ 10.40+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Away
Bet365
12.00
Marathonbet
8.80
Handicap +2 (Muğlaspor)
Muğlaspor +2
89.0%
@ 1.04-1.9%
Draw +2
7.7%
@ 15.00+1.4%
Vanspor FK -2
3.3%
@ 34.00+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Away
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Muğlaspor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.30
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.38
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Vanspor FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vanspor FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.69
0.46
0.46
0.46
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Muğlaspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.8%
@ 1.43+6.2%
Under 0.5
29.2%
@ 2.61-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.75
Pinnacle
2.73
Unibet
2.70
Bet365
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.7%
@ 3.00+1.9%
Under 1.5
67.3%
@ 1.34-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.17
Betano
3.05
Marathonbet
3.02
1xBet
3.02
Betfair
3.00
Under
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Betano
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.5%
@ 7.77-1.4%
Under 2.5
89.5%
@ 1.05+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
BetVictor
8.50
William Hil
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
Under
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.04
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Muğlaspor over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.0%
@ 1.88+7.7%
Under
43.0%
@ 1.82-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.89
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.77
Muğlaspor over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.7%
@ 5.32+2.3%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.12-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.50
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Muğlaspor over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.0%
@ 10.00-6.2%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.02+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Vanspor FK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.5%
@ 2.74-1.2%
Under
67.5%
@ 1.39+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.85
Betano
2.80
Marathonbet
2.67
1xBet
2.63
Under
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
Vanspor FK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.8%
@ 9.38-5.2%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.04+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Vanspor FK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Muğlaspor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.30
0.50
0.50
0.83
0.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Vanspor FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vanspor FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
0.73
0.67
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (26)
0.88
0.81
0.69
0.69
1.08
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Muğlaspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.4%
@ 1.27-1.1%
Under 0.5
28.6%
@ 3.35+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.40
William Hil
3.30
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.2%
@ 2.25-1.0%
Under 1.5
59.8%
@ 1.57+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.30
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Marathonbet
2.24
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.3%
@ 4.91-1.5%
Under 2.5
82.7%
@ 1.13+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
William Hil
5.00
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Betano
4.45
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Muğlaspor over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.2%
@ 1.59+3.1%
Under
38.8%
@ 2.21-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.17
Muğlaspor over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.5%
@ 3.79-1.8%
Under
77.5%
@ 1.21+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.92
1xBet
3.90
Betano
3.55
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Muğlaspor over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.0%
@ 7.90-4.7%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.05+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.05
Vanspor FK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
39.6%
@ 2.24-1.4%
Under
60.4%
@ 1.56+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.27
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.21
Under
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Vanspor FK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.5%
@ 7.33-1.0%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.05+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.40
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Vanspor FK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.1%
@ 11.00-5.3%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.01+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.2%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.3%
Under 5.5
95.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+2.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.2%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
Over 19.5 fouls
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
+4.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.0%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.7%
Under 11.5 corners
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-0.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.05
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.04
+1.4%
Home +2 handicap
89.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.9%
Under 4.5
88.7%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
+1.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.5%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+1.0%
Over 2.5 cards
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.7%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
+1.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
82.3%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.16
+4.6%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.3%
1.12
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
-2.3%
Away +2 handicap
78.0%
1.29
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
-
-
+8.5%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.5%
1.21
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
-
-
+1.8%
Over 23.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.4%
1.21
Betano
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-
-0.7%
Under 9.5 corners
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.1%
1.24
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
1xBet
1.22
+0.9%
Over 3.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.1%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+3.9%
Home or Draw
72.8%
1.18
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-5.2%
Home +1 handicap
72.8%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-
-
-3.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
71.4%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
-1.1%
Home or Away
71.2%
1.27
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
-1.4%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.8%
1.43
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
+6.2%
Away under 1.5 goals
70.4%
1.22
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Betfair
1.22
-5.5%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Vanspor FK
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Maniş33%
F. Genç0%
N. Oularé0%
Mehmet Can Davarcıoğlu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
N. Oularé67%
F. Genç0%
M. Maniş0%
Mehmet Can Davarcıoğlu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
F. Genç0%
M. Maniş0%
N. Oularé0%
Mehmet Can Davarcıoğlu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
F. Genç0%
M. Maniş0%
N. Oularé0%
Mehmet Can Davarcıoğlu0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (27)
€19m
ANT (25)
€16m
BF (31)
€13m
FK (23)
€12m
KAY (23)
€12m
EE (23)
€11m
SIV (26)
€10m
IF (26)
€9m
MF (24)
€9m
BP (25)
€9m
İST (28)
€8m
BAN (29)
€7m
ÜMR (25)
€7m
PEN (26)
€6m
M1 (25)
€6m
VF (21)
€6m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
MUĞ (19)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
BOL (18)
€3m
Muğlaspor and Vanspor FK have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (10)
€10m
BF (10)
€6m
FK (9)
€5m
KAY (9)
€5m
ANT (8)
€5m
EE (8)
€4m
SIV (10)
€4m
BP (10)
€4m
IF (7)
€4m
VF (10)
€3m
İST (10)
€3m
ÜMR (8)
€3m
MUĞ (8)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
SAR (7)
€2m
MF (7)
€2m
BAN (8)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
PEN (10)
€2m
BOL (5)
€1m
Muğlaspor and Vanspor FK have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (5)
€4m
ANT (6)
€4m
EE (6)
€3m
FK (3)
€3m
BF (10)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (5)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
BP (5)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
IF (7)
€2m
BAN (6)
€2m
KAY (4)
€2m
PEN (5)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
MUĞ (7)
€2m
SAR (4)
€1m
VF (2)
€1m
İST (5)
€1m
BOL (5)
€1m
Muğlaspor and Vanspor FK have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ANT (11)
€7m
KAY (10)
€5m
BUR (12)
€4m
BF (11)
€4m
FK (11)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (13)
€4m
IF (12)
€3m
BAN (15)
€3m
PEN (11)
€3m
EE (9)
€3m
BP (10)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
SIV (11)
€3m
VF (9)
€2m
M1 (9)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
ÜMR (10)
€2m
MUĞ (4)
€2m
BOL (8)
€1m
Muğlaspor and Vanspor FK have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Turkey: 1. Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Batman Petrolspor
Bursaspor
Sarıyer
Kayserispor
Mardin 1969
Iğdır FK
Keçiörengücü
Manisa F.K.
Fatih Karagümrük
Bandırmaspor
Antalyaspor
Pendikspor
Esenler Erokspor
Bodrum FK
Ümraniyespor
Sivasspor
İstanbulspor
Boluspor