This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.07
2.00
1.07
2.07
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.54
1.15
1.29
0.71
1.83
1.67
vs Weaker (17)
2.41
1.00
2.62
1.38
2.22
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.4%
Under 2.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.5%
Under 3.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.5%
No
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
0-1
10.4%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
9.5%
0-0
8.2%
1-0 ✓
6.0%
2-1
5.9%
1-3
5.2%
Mura goals ↓
Celje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
10%
9.5%
5.2%
2.1%
1
6.0%
13%
9.6%
5.2%
2.1%
2
3.6%
5.9%
4.9%
2.7%
1.1%
3
1.2%
2.0%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mura goals (down), columns = Celje goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.06
Maribor
1.86
Koper
1.83
Celje
1.69
Bravo
1.53
Triglav
1.50
Primorje
1.19
Radomlje
0.97
Mura
0.97
NK Domzale
0.84
Nafta
0.78
Mura is 0.72 points worse than Celje in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.69).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celje
2.11
Triglav
2.00
Maribor
1.78
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.75
Koper
1.67
Bravo
1.44
Primorje
1.14
NK Domzale
1.05
Radomlje
1.03
Mura
1.03
Nafta
0.92
Mura is 1.08 goals worse than Celje in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 2.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.56
Maribor
0.89
Koper
0.97
Bravo
1.22
Celje
1.42
Mura
1.42
Primorje
1.69
NK Domzale
1.84
Nafta
1.92
Radomlje
1.92
Triglav
2.50
Mura and Celje are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Mura
For 5.1 · Against 7.1 · Total 12.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 11.0 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celje
For 5.6 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.2 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mura
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.9
10.9
13.1
2.4
2.7
2.2
23.6
24.6
22.6
vs Stronger (22)
11.9
10.7
13.7
2.8
3.3
2.2
22.2
22.6
21.7
vs Similar (28)
11.8
11.2
12.4
2.1
2.1
2.2
25.5
27.8
23.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
73%
69%
79%
32%
38%
25%
67%
81%
50%
% under line
27%
31%
21%
68%
62%
75%
33%
19%
50%
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
8.8
10.9
2.4
1.9
3.0
22.1
21.2
22.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
9.6
8.0
11.2
3.0
2.2
3.8
22.1
21.1
23.0
vs Weaker (26)
10.3
10.0
10.5
1.9
1.5
2.2
22.0
21.2
22.5
% over line
55%
46%
62%
34%
32%
36%
57%
50%
62%
% under line
45%
54%
38%
66%
68%
64%
43%
50%
38%
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Celje
9.8
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.5
Koper
9.2
Maribor
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maribor
4.8
NK Domzale
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.5
Mura
4.2
Celje
4.1
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
26.4
Maribor
25.4
Koper
24.9
Olimpija Ljubljana
24.8
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Celje
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
60.0%
Under 9.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.8%
Under 3.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
61.6%
Under 21.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mura
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.50
0.43
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.75
0.67
0.33
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.33
0.38
0.50
0.70
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.67
0.60
0.87
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.62
0.29
0.57
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (17)
0.94
0.41
1.00
0.62
0.89
0.22
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mura
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.64
0.64
0.56
1.06
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
1.25
0.17
1.17
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.61
1.00
0.25
0.80
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.57
1.33
0.47
1.20
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.54
1.00
0.14
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.47
0.59
1.62
0.75
1.33
0.44
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celje
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Armandas Kučys57%
David Zec33%
Tamar Svetlin33%
Juanjo Nieto25%
Aljoša Matko18%
Ivan Brnić17%
Svit Sešlar17%
Logan Delaurier-Chaubet17%
Klemen Nemanič9%
Edmilson8%
Mario Kvesić0%
Ricardo Silva0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Nino Kouter0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Matjaž Rozman0%
Marco Dulca0%
Mark Zabukovnik0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Clement Lhernault0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Armandas Kučys57%
Nino Kouter33%
Klemen Nemanič27%
Damjan Vuklišević20%
Mark Zabukovnik18%
David Zec17%
Ricardo Silva17%
Juanjo Nieto17%
Tamar Svetlin17%
Logan Delaurier-Chaubet17%
Mario Kvesić10%
Žan Karničnik10%
Svit Sešlar8%
Edmilson8%
Ivan Brnić0%
Matjaž Rozman0%
Aljoša Matko0%
Marco Dulca0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Clement Lhernault0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Svit Sešlar50%
Ivan Brnić33%
Aljoša Matko18%
Mark Zabukovnik18%
Logan Delaurier-Chaubet17%
Armandas Kučys14%
Žan Karničnik10%
Mario Kvesić0%
David Zec0%
Ricardo Silva0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Nino Kouter0%
Matjaž Rozman0%
Klemen Nemanič0%
Marco Dulca0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Edmilson0%
Clement Lhernault0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aljoša Matko36%
Armandas Kučys29%
Logan Delaurier-Chaubet17%
Mario Kvesić10%
Svit Sešlar8%
Ivan Brnić0%
David Zec0%
Ricardo Silva0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Nino Kouter0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Matjaž Rozman0%
Klemen Nemanič0%
Marco Dulca0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Mark Zabukovnik0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Edmilson0%
Clement Lhernault0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
PRI (10)
€1m
Mura's squad is €9m less valuable than Celje's (€5m vs €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
PRI (3)
€0m
Mura's attack is €5m less valuable than Celje's (€2m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
Mura and Celje have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
PRI (5)
€0m
Mura's defence is €3m less valuable than Celje's (€2m vs €6m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olimpija Ljubljana
Maribor
Koper
Bravo
Primorje
Radomlje
NK Domzale
Nafta
Triglav