Mura’s recent form has been uneven, with two straight defeats before this match, while Maribor enters on a two-game winning run. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.6 goals and a most likely total of three goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.5% chance. Home win is the favoured outcome, with a 48% probability, draw 23%, and away win 29%. Mura’s home attacking output averages 2.0 goals and they concede 3.0, whereas Maribor’s away scoring average is 2.0 with 3.0 conceded against weaker opposition. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals (88.4%), Over 2.5 cards (81.3%), Over 19.5 fouls (89.8%), Over 21.5 fouls (80.2%), Under 10.5 corners (73.2%), Under 11.5 corners (82.4%), and Under 5.5 cards (72.2%). Each selection is listed with its probability, and the model’s selection for the most likely scoreline is 1-1.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Maribor snatched a 0-1 win, extending their two-game winning run after a 3-2 victory over Nafta. The pre-match favourite, Mura, had a 48% chance of triumph, but the model’s call was wrong. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, with an 88.4% probability, which missed as the match produced a single goal. The model had also highlighted a 21% chance of a 3-goal total and a 9.5% chance of a 1-1 draw, but neither came to pass. Overall, the predictions failed to capture the narrow away success.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mura win✗ Miss
48.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maribor win✓ Hit
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mura
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.40
2.00
1.50
1.33
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
-
-
1.50
2.50
vs Similar (8)
1.62
1.12
2.00
1.50
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
1.36
0.62
1.38
0.83
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
2.67
1.50
2.50
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
29% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
88.4%
Under 1.5
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
70.0%
Under 2.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.8%
Under 3.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
69.8%
No
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.5%
2-1
8.8%
2-2
6.9%
1-2
6.8%
3-1
6.0%
2-0
5.6%
3-2
4.7%
1-0
4.6%
Mura goals ↓
Maribor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
1.7%
0.7%
1
4.6%
9.5%
6.8%
3.5%
1.4%
2
5.6%
8.8%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
3
3.9%
6.0%
4.7%
2.5%
1.0%
4
2.0%
3.1%
2.4%
1.3%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mura goals (down), columns = Maribor goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.03
Aluminij
2.00
Celje
1.86
Maribor
1.72
Mura
1.44
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.39
Radomlje
1.22
Bravo
1.00
Gorica
0.74
Tabor Sežana
0.67
Mura is 0.28 points worse than Maribor in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.72).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Aluminij
2.00
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.67
Celje
1.47
Mura
1.39
NK Domzale
1.39
Koper
1.28
Radomlje
0.97
Bravo
0.92
Gorica
0.87
Tabor Sežana
0.81
Mura is 0.56 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celje
0.94
Aluminij
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.08
Koper
1.11
Bravo
1.14
NK Domzale
1.17
Maribor
1.19
Mura
1.25
Radomlje
1.47
Gorica
1.61
Tabor Sežana
1.75
Mura is 0.06 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
59%
Koper
52%
Maribor
51%
Bravo
50%
Mura
50%
Celje
49%
Tabor Sežana
47%
NK Domzale
47%
Gorica
47%
Mura is 1.5 percentage points worse than Maribor in terms of average possession (50% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Mura
For 6.8 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.0 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maribor
For 4.1 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.2 · Against 11.0 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mura
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (10)
11.2
10.5
12.0
2.9
5.5
1.2
23.2
22.5
24.0
vs Stronger (2)
9.5
-
9.5
3.5
-
3.5
24.0
-
24.0
vs Similar (8)
11.8
10.5
14.5
2.8
5.5
0.0
22.5
22.5
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
75%
75%
40%
75%
17%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
25%
25%
25%
60%
25%
83%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (14)
8.7
10.2
7.2
2.9
1.9
4.3
26.2
23.5
29.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
8.4
9.8
7.0
3.1
2.3
4.0
27.5
31.0
24.0
vs Weaker (3)
10.0
12.0
8.0
2.3
0.5
6.0
25.0
16.0
34.0
% over line
40%
60%
20%
36%
12%
67%
75%
50%
100%
% under line
60%
40%
80%
64%
88%
33%
25%
50%
0%
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
10.3
Gorica
10.2
Koper
9.3
NK Domzale
9.0
Bravo
8.8
Celje
8.8
Maribor
8.7
Tabor Sežana
7.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Domzale
5.6
Koper
5.0
Mura
4.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.8
Celje
4.5
Maribor
4.1
Tabor Sežana
3.4
Bravo
3.2
Gorica
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bravo
27.4
NK Domzale
27.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
26.8
Maribor
26.2
Celje
25.8
Koper
23.5
Mura
23.2
Gorica
22.5
Tabor Sežana
22.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
38.3%
Under 9.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
63.8%
Under 3.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
80.2%
Under 21.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mura
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.17
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.62
0.25
1.00
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.36
0.33
0.50
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mura
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.90
1.75
0.50
0.83
1.17
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
-
-
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.50
1.75
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.21
0.79
0.12
0.62
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.09
0.64
0.00
0.50
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
36% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
TS (17)
€2m
Mura's squad is €5m less valuable than Maribor's (€5m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
Mura's attack is €3m less valuable than Maribor's (€2m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
Mura and Maribor have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
TS (8)
€1m
Mura and Maribor have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olimpija Ljubljana
Celje
NK Domzale
Koper
Radomlje
Bravo
Gorica
Tabor Sežana
Aluminij