Mura vs Maribor Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 43% chance for Maribor, 30% for Mura and 26% for a draw. The expected total is three goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.3% probability. Mura, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Maribor, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.83 scored and 0.83 conceded. The suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 90%, Under 11.5 corners at 86.5%, Over 1.5 goals at 80.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 80.8%, Over 21.5 fouls at 80.5%, Under 10.5 corners at 78.5% and Under 5.5 cards at 73%. The model’s selection probabilities are all expressed as percentages, with no other outcomes attached.

The upset came early as Mura snatched a 2-1 victory, overturning the model’s prediction of an away win with a 43% chance. The pre-match favourite, Maribor, was wrong, and the model’s call was incorrect. The final score of 2-1 gave Mura the win, while the model had expected a 2-1 result with a 7.5% probability. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 90%, Over 1.5 goals hit at 80.9%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 80.8%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 80.5%, while Under 11.5 corners, Under 10.5 corners, and Under 5.5 cards all missed at 86.5%, 78.5%, and 73.0% respectively. Mura’s recent form, after two straight defeats, and Maribor’s two-game winning run set the stage for this surprising outcome.