Mura’s attacking rhythm, averaging two goals per home match, and Radomlje’s modest one goal per away outing set the stage for a high-scoring affair, with the model forecasting an average of 3.6 goals. The most probable total is three goals, and the single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 9.6% chance. Home advantage is clear, with a 52% chance of a Mura win, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 25% chance of a Radomlje victory, making a home win the favoured result. Mura’s recent form, after two straight defeats, has been shaky, yet they still outscore opponents at home, while Radomlje, coming off a draw, has struggled to find the net away. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 87.9%, Over 19.5 fouls at 86.0%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.2%, Under 11.5 corners at 78.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.2%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 74.4%.
Results analysis
Mura’s recent form, still rattled after two straight defeats, proved resilient as they clinched a 3-0 victory over Radomlje, extending their winless streak into a win. The model had correctly called a Home win with a 52% probability, and the result matched the actual outcome. The suggested pick Over 1.5, with an 87.9% chance, hit as the match produced three goals. The most likely scoreline of 2-1 fell short, but the 3-0 result still satisfied the model’s overall expectations. With the home side’s 3-0 win confirming the forecast, the predictions largely came through.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mura win✓ Hit
52.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Radomlje win✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mura
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.56
1.38
1.88
1.50
1.25
1.25
vs Stronger (6)
1.67
1.83
1.75
1.50
1.50
2.50
vs Similar (10)
1.50
1.10
2.00
1.50
1.17
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
19% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radomlje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.92
1.75
0.67
1.50
1.17
2.00
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.50
0.50
3.00
1.25
2.25
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.00
0.75
0.75
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.9%
Under 1.5
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.0%
Under 2.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.6%
Under 3.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.9%
No
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
2-1
9.2%
2-2
6.6%
3-1
6.5%
2-0
6.4%
1-2
6.2%
1-0
5.2%
3-2
4.7%
Mura goals ↓
Radomlje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
3.2%
2.9%
1.4%
0.5%
1
5.2%
9.6%
6.2%
3.0%
1.1%
2
6.4%
9.2%
6.6%
3.2%
1.1%
3
4.5%
6.5%
4.7%
2.2%
0.8%
4
2.4%
3.5%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mura goals (down), columns = Radomlje goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.03
Aluminij
2.00
Celje
1.86
Maribor
1.72
Mura
1.44
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.39
Radomlje
1.22
Bravo
1.00
Gorica
0.74
Tabor Sežana
0.67
Mura is 0.22 points better than Radomlje in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Aluminij
2.00
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.67
Celje
1.47
Mura
1.39
NK Domzale
1.39
Koper
1.28
Radomlje
0.97
Bravo
0.92
Gorica
0.87
Tabor Sežana
0.81
Mura is 0.42 goals better than Radomlje in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celje
0.94
Aluminij
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.08
Koper
1.11
Bravo
1.14
NK Domzale
1.17
Maribor
1.19
Mura
1.25
Radomlje
1.47
Gorica
1.61
Tabor Sežana
1.75
Mura is 0.22 goals better than Radomlje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
59%
Koper
52%
Maribor
51%
Bravo
50%
Mura
50%
Celje
49%
Tabor Sežana
47%
NK Domzale
47%
Gorica
47%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Mura
For 6.8 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.0 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Radomlje
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Mura
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (16)
11.2
10.5
12.0
1.8
2.8
0.9
23.2
22.5
24.0
vs Stronger (6)
9.5
-
9.5
1.2
0.0
3.5
24.0
-
24.0
vs Similar (10)
11.8
10.5
14.5
2.2
5.5
0.0
22.5
22.5
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
75%
75%
25%
38%
12%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
25%
25%
25%
75%
62%
88%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radomlje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
10.3
Gorica
10.2
Koper
9.3
NK Domzale
9.0
Bravo
8.8
Celje
8.8
Maribor
8.7
Tabor Sežana
7.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Domzale
5.6
Koper
5.0
Mura
4.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.8
Celje
4.5
Maribor
4.1
Tabor Sežana
3.4
Bravo
3.2
Gorica
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bravo
27.4
NK Domzale
27.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
26.8
Maribor
26.2
Celje
25.8
Koper
23.5
Mura
23.2
Gorica
22.5
Tabor Sežana
22.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.2%
Under 9.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.4%
Under 3.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
74.4%
Under 21.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mura
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.25
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.33
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.60
0.25
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radomlje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.58
0.58
0.33
0.50
0.83
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.17
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
58% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mura
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.06
0.88
1.38
0.75
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.50
1.75
0.50
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radomlje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.17
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (6)
0.17
0.83
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
TS (17)
€2m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
TS (8)
€1m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →