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Mura vs Radomlje Result & Analysis

Date: 16/10/2022
Time: 15:30
Final 3-0
Mura
Mura
Vs
52%
23%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Radomlje
Radomlje
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Mura’s attacking rhythm, averaging two goals per home match, and Radomlje’s modest one goal per away outing set the stage for a high-scoring affair, with the model forecasting an average of 3.6 goals. The most probable total is three goals, and the single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 9.6% chance. Home advantage is clear, with a 52% chance of a Mura win, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 25% chance of a Radomlje victory, making a home win the favoured result. Mura’s recent form, after two straight defeats, has been shaky, yet they still outscore opponents at home, while Radomlje, coming off a draw, has struggled to find the net away. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 87.9%, Over 19.5 fouls at 86.0%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.2%, Under 11.5 corners at 78.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.2%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 74.4%.

Results analysis

Mura’s recent form, still rattled after two straight defeats, proved resilient as they clinched a 3-0 victory over Radomlje, extending their winless streak into a win. The model had correctly called a Home win with a 52% probability, and the result matched the actual outcome. The suggested pick Over 1.5, with an 87.9% chance, hit as the match produced three goals. The most likely scoreline of 2-1 fell short, but the 3-0 result still satisfied the model’s overall expectations. With the home side’s 3-0 win confirming the forecast, the predictions largely came through.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mura win✓ Hit
52.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Radomlje win✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MuraMura

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-333D11D22D10W01L00D21W23L22D31WA·CEL31/07A·RAD07/08H·TAB13/08A·BRA20/08H·MAR28/08A·GOR02/09H·KOP11/09H·OLI17/09A·NK 01/10H·CEL09/10
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.561.381.881.501.251.25
vs Stronger (6)1.671.831.751.501.502.50
vs Similar (10)1.501.102.001.501.170.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %19% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RadomljeRadomlje

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W11D05L00D12L11D13L05L12L11DA·GOR29/07H·MUR07/08A·KOP13/08H·TAB19/08A·OLI27/08H·BRA05/09A·NK 09/09H·MAR18/09A·CEL02/10H·GOR10/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.921.750.671.501.172.00
vs Stronger (6)1.002.500.503.001.252.25
vs Similar (6)0.831.000.750.751.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.9%
Under 1.5
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.0%
Under 2.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.6%
Under 3.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.9%
No
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
2-1
9.2%
2-2
6.6%
3-1
6.5%
2-0
6.4%
1-2
6.2%
1-0
5.2%
3-2
4.7%
Mura goals ↓
Radomlje goals →
01234
03.7%3.2%2.9%1.4%0.5%
15.2%9.6%6.2%3.0%1.1%
26.4%9.2%6.6%3.2%1.1%
34.5%6.5%4.7%2.2%0.8%
42.4%3.5%2.5%1.2%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mura goals (down), columns = Radomlje goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.03
Aluminij
2.00
Celje
1.86
Maribor
1.72
Mura
1.44
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.39
Radomlje
1.22
Bravo
1.00
Gorica
0.74
Tabor Sežana
0.67
Mura is 0.22 points better than Radomlje in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.22).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Aluminij
2.00
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.67
Celje
1.47
Mura
1.39
NK Domzale
1.39
Koper
1.28
Radomlje
0.97
Bravo
0.92
Gorica
0.87
Tabor Sežana
0.81
Mura is 0.42 goals better than Radomlje in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 0.97).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Celje
0.94
Aluminij
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.08
Koper
1.11
Bravo
1.14
NK Domzale
1.17
Maribor
1.19
Mura
1.25
Radomlje
1.47
Gorica
1.61
Tabor Sežana
1.75
Mura is 0.22 goals better than Radomlje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
59%
Koper
52%
Maribor
51%
Bravo
50%
Mura
50%
Celje
49%
Tabor Sežana
47%
NK Domzale
47%
Gorica
47%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

MuraMura

For 6.8 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.2

🚩 Corners

1604344669449838211578121313111016H·TABA·CELH·ST H·NK A·ST A·OLIH·SFÎA·SFÎ
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8

🟨 Cards

80212243441213347834H·TABA·CELH·ST H·NK A·OLIH·SFÎ
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.0 · Total 23.2

⚠️ Fouls

2401210168121191522242324H·TABA·CELH·NK A·OLI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

RadomljeRadomlje

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

MuraMura

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (16)11.210.512.01.82.80.923.222.524.0
vs Stronger (6)9.5-9.51.20.03.524.0-24.0
vs Similar (10)11.810.514.52.25.50.022.522.5-
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line75%75%75%25%38%12%100%100%100%
% under line25%25%25%75%62%88%0%0%0%
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RadomljeRadomlje

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (12)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (6)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (6)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
11.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
10.3
Gorica
10.2
Koper
9.3
NK Domzale
9.0
Bravo
8.8
Celje
8.8
Maribor
8.7
Tabor Sežana
7.6

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
NK Domzale
5.6
Koper
5.0
Mura
4.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.8
Celje
4.5
Maribor
4.1
Tabor Sežana
3.4
Bravo
3.2
Gorica
2.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Bravo
27.4
NK Domzale
27.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
26.8
Maribor
26.2
Celje
25.8
Koper
23.5
Mura
23.2
Gorica
22.5
Tabor Sežana
22.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.2%
Under 9.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.4%
Under 3.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
74.4%
Under 21.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MuraMura

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L01L00D00D00D10W21W11D01LA·CEL31/07A·RAD07/08H·TAB13/08A·BRA20/08H·MAR28/08A·GOR02/09H·KOP11/09H·OLI17/09A·NK 01/10H·CEL09/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.500.500.750.500.25
vs Stronger (6)0.830.330.750.501.000.00
vs Similar (10)0.300.600.251.000.330.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %62% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RadomljeRadomlje

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W02L00D01L00D10W02L11D11DA·GOR29/07H·MUR07/08A·KOP13/08H·TAB19/08A·OLI27/08H·BRA05/09A·NK 09/09H·MAR18/09A·CEL02/10H·GOR10/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.580.580.330.500.830.67
vs Stronger (6)0.501.000.001.000.751.00
vs Similar (6)0.670.170.500.251.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %58% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MuraMura

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L10W21W10W01L00D11D02L11D30WA·CEL31/07A·RAD07/08H·TAB13/08A·BRA20/08H·MAR28/08A·GOR02/09H·KOP11/09H·OLI17/09A·NK 01/10H·CEL09/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.060.881.380.750.751.00
vs Stronger (6)0.831.501.001.000.502.50
vs Similar (10)1.200.501.750.500.830.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %38% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RadomljeRadomlje

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L03L00D11D11D03L03L01L00DA·GOR29/07H·MUR07/08A·KOP13/08H·TAB19/08A·OLI27/08H·BRA05/09A·NK 09/09H·MAR18/09A·CEL02/10H·GOR10/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.331.170.331.000.331.33
vs Stronger (6)0.501.500.502.000.501.25
vs Similar (6)0.170.830.250.500.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls86.0%--------
Over 2.5 cards78.2%--------
Under 11.5 corners78.1%--------
Under 5.5 cards76.2%--------
Over 21.5 fouls74.4%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
TS (17)
€2m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
TS (8)
€1m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
MUR wins
1
Draws
0
RAD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mura vs Radomlje · H/A from MUR
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/22ARadomlje Vs MUR1-1

MuraMura

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/10/22HMUR Vs Celje3-1
01/10/22ANK Domzale Vs MUR2-2
17/09/22HMUR Vs Olimpija Ljubljana2-3
11/09/22HMUR Vs Koper2-1
02/09/22AGorica Vs MUR0-0
28/08/22HMUR Vs Maribor0-1
20/08/22ABravo Vs MUR0-1
13/08/22HMUR Vs Tabor Sežana2-2
07/08/22ARadomlje Vs MUR1-1
31/07/22ACelje Vs MUR3-3

RadomljeRadomlje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/10/22HRAD Vs Gorica1-1
02/10/22ACelje Vs RAD2-1
18/09/22HRAD Vs Maribor0-5
09/09/22ANK Domzale Vs RAD3-1
05/09/22HRAD Vs Bravo1-1
27/08/22AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs RAD2-1
19/08/22HRAD Vs Tabor Sežana0-0
13/08/22AKoper Vs RAD5-0
07/08/22HRAD Vs Mura1-1
29/07/22AGorica Vs RAD0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mura
Mura
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLDW1.56
HomeDLWLW1.75
AwayDDWDD1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%50%25%
AVG goals2.943.382.50
Over 1.5 %75%75%75%
Over 2.5 %56%75%38%
Over 3.5 %38%50%25%
Scored1.561.881.25
Conceded1.381.501.25
BTTS69%75%62%
Clean Sheet19%12%25%
Corners11.2510.5012.00
Cards4.835.503.50
Radomlje
Radomlje
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLD0.92
HomeDDDLD0.83
AwayWLLLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %17%0%33%
AVG goals2.672.173.17
Over 1.5 %83%83%83%
Over 2.5 %50%17%83%
Over 3.5 %25%17%33%
Scored0.920.671.17
Conceded1.751.502.00
BTTS58%67%50%
Clean Sheet25%17%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3673
64%
2.0
6039+21
2.8
67%
44%
25%
9.1
43%
4.4
57%
27.5
87%
12
6151.71.1
59%
2CeljeCelje3667
53%
1.9
5334+19
2.4
69%
42%
19%
9.7
43%
4.2
61%
24.6
78%
14
7161.50.9
49%
3MariborMaribor3662
50%
1.7
7043+27
3.1
83%
58%
39%
8.9
35%
4.3
52%
25.0
73%
10
5231.91.2
51%
4NK DomzaleNK Domzale3652
36%
1.4
5042+8
2.6
72%
44%
28%
7.7
17%
5.1
78%
28.1
91%
0
0001.41.2
47%
5MuraMura3652
36%
1.4
5045+5
2.6
69%
53%
31%
10.6
57%
4.5
61%
26.3
91%
5
2121.41.2
50%
6KoperKoper3650
39%
1.4
4640+6
2.4
69%
42%
19%
9.1
52%
3.8
52%
24.0
78%
8
3231.31.1
52%
7RadomljeRadomlje3644
28%
1.2
3553-18
2.4
78%
44%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.5
-
8BravoBravo3636
25%
1.0
3341-8
2.1
58%
31%
14%
8.7
35%
3.9
57%
27.5
83%
4
1120.91.1
50%
9GoricaGorica3828
13%
0.7
3361-28
2.5
74%
37%
24%
9.4
52%
4.1
56%
26.2
79%
0
0000.91.6
47%
10Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3624
8%
0.7
2963-34
2.6
72%
44%
31%
9.3
38%
3.2
33%
22.2
67%
2
1110.81.8
47%
11AluminijAluminij24
50%
2.0
42+2
3.0
100%
50%
50%
10.5
50%
6.0
100%
33.5
100%
4
2122.01.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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