Murata’s recent five-game losing streak and a 2-5 defeat at home make Cosmos the clear favourite, reflected in the model’s 68 % chance of an away win. The model favours a 0-2 scoreline for Cosmos, with a 13.8 % probability, while the expected total of 2.7 goals suggests a modestly high-scoring match. Murata’s home form is bleak: they average zero goals scored and concede 2.71 against stronger opponents, whereas Cosmos, playing away against weaker teams, average 1.62 goals scored and only 0.62 conceded. The home win probability sits at 10 %, the draw at 21 %, and the away win at 68 %. Suggested selections include Home under 3.5 goals (99.5 %), Under 7.5 (99.4 %), Over 19.5 fouls (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (98.0 %), Over 21.5 fouls (97.4 %), Away +2 handicap (97.1 %), Home under 2.5 goals (96.9 %), and Under 5.5 (94.4 %). These picks capture the low likelihood of a Murata victory and the high probability of Cosmos dominating the match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Murata win
10.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cosmos win
68.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Murata
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
2.83
0.36
2.93
1.00
2.75
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
2.85
0.00
2.83
0.86
2.86
vs Similar (17)
0.88
2.82
0.62
3.00
1.11
2.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.90
0.81
0.75
1.14
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.38
1.23
0.17
1.00
0.57
1.43
vs Weaker (17)
1.41
0.65
1.20
0.60
1.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.3%
Under 2.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.3%
Under 3.5
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.2%
No
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
13.9%
0-1
12.8%
1-1
10.1%
0-3
9.3%
1-2
9.3%
0-0
7.7%
1-3
6.2%
0-4
4.7%
Murata goals ↓
Cosmos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
13%
14%
9.3%
4.7%
1
3.6%
10%
9.3%
6.2%
3.1%
2
1.5%
3.1%
3.1%
2.1%
1.1%
3
0.3%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Murata goals (down), columns = Cosmos goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
Murata is 1.19 points worse than Cosmos in terms of average points per game (0.23 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
Murata is 0.33 goals worse than Cosmos in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
Murata is 2.07 goals worse than Cosmos in terms of goals conceded per game (2.77 vs 0.70).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Murata
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Cosmos
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Murata
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.0
6.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
30.0
30.0
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
6.0
6.0
-
0.2
0.5
0.0
30.0
30.0
-
vs Weaker (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
2%
4%
0%
100%
100%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
98%
96%
100%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Murata) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Fiori
7.7
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
5.3
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Tre Fiori
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
21.1%
Under 9.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.3%
Under 3.5
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.4%
Under 21.5
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Murata or Draw
31.9%
Avg Implied -
10%
21%
68%
covers Murata + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Murata or Cosmos
78.5%
Avg Implied -
10%
21%
68%
covers Murata + Cosmos
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cosmos
89.6%
Avg Implied -
10%
21%
68%
covers Draw + Cosmos
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Murata over/under 0.5
Over
48.8%
Under
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 0.5
Over
86.7%
Under
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5
Over
59.8%
Under
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5
Over
32.8%
Under
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 3.5
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Murata, so a minus line means Murata give that many goals of a start and Cosmos receive them. At -1, Murata must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Murata win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Murata)
Murata -2
0.6%
Draw -2
2.3%
Cosmos +2
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Murata)
Murata -1
2.9%
Draw -1
7.5%
Cosmos +1
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Murata)
Murata +1
31.9%
Draw +1
24.4%
Cosmos -1
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Murata)
Murata +2
56.3%
Draw +2
21.2%
Cosmos -2
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Murata
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
1.40
0.21
1.64
0.31
1.19
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.38
0.00
1.33
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (17)
0.29
1.41
0.38
1.88
0.22
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.08
0.69
0.00
0.33
0.14
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.59
0.18
0.40
0.20
0.86
0.14
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Murata over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Murata
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.43
0.14
1.29
0.69
1.56
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.46
0.00
1.50
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (17)
0.59
1.41
0.25
1.12
0.89
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.56
0.50
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.54
0.17
0.67
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
0.82
0.47
0.80
0.40
0.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Murata over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Murata and Cosmos have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Murata and Cosmos have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Murata and Cosmos have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Murata and Cosmos have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Folgore
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Domagnano
Libertas
La Fiorita
Virtus
San Giovanni
Cailungo
San Marino Academy
Pennarossa
Faetano