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Murata vs Fiorentino Result & Analysis

Date: 20/04/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 3-0
Murata
Murata
Vs
56%
26%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Fiorentino
Fiorentino
San-Marino: Campionato
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Murata win✓ Hit
55.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino win✗ Miss
17.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

MurataMurata

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-712L31W02L30W10W42W01L10W10W70WH·LA 10/02A·CAI18/02H·TRE21/02A·PEN24/02H·FOL03/03A·JUV09/03H·VIR13/03A·TRE16/03H·COS06/04A·SAN13/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.770.771.600.531.931.00
vs Stronger (12)0.671.170.500.830.831.50
vs Similar (18)2.500.502.330.332.670.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FiorentinoFiorentino

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W11D11D02L04L43W02L20W22D13LH·VIR10/02A·JUV18/02H·SAN21/02A·SAN24/02H·TRE02/03H·LIB09/03A·LA 13/03H·DOM17/03A·FOL06/04H·FAE14/04
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.771.801.730.871.80
vs Stronger (10)1.102.901.802.400.403.40
vs Similar (14)1.291.361.571.571.001.14
vs Weaker (6)1.830.832.331.001.330.67
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.4%
Under 1.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.8%
Under 2.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.3%
Under 3.5
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.2%
No
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-0
12.1%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
9.0%
3-0 ✓
6.3%
0-1
5.6%
3-1
5.4%
Murata goals ↓
Fiorentino goals →
01234
09.0%5.6%2.9%0.8%0.2%
112%12%4.9%1.4%0.3%
211%9.6%4.1%1.2%0.3%
36.3%5.4%2.3%0.7%0.1%
42.6%2.3%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Murata goals (down), columns = Fiorentino goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Virtus
2.63
La Fiorita
2.49
Tre Penne
1.97
Murata
1.91
Cosmos
1.86
Tre Fiori
1.81
Juvenes / Dogana
1.55
San Giovanni
1.50
Folgore
1.30
Fiorentino
1.23
Domagnano
1.13
Faetano
0.87
Libertas
0.77
San Marino Academy
0.73
Cailungo
0.47
Pennarossa
0.27
Murata is 0.69 points better than Fiorentino in terms of average points per game (1.91 vs 1.23).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Cosmos
2.37
Tre Penne
2.37
La Fiorita
2.17
Virtus
2.03
Tre Fiori
1.78
San Giovanni
1.78
Murata
1.77
Juvenes / Dogana
1.55
Faetano
1.47
Folgore
1.39
Fiorentino
1.29
San Marino Academy
1.07
Libertas
1.07
Domagnano
1.06
Pennarossa
0.60
Cailungo
0.50
Murata is 0.48 goals better than Fiorentino in terms of goals scored per game (1.77 vs 1.29).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.60
Virtus
0.67
Murata
0.74
Cosmos
0.94
Tre Fiori
1.00
Tre Penne
1.03
Folgore
1.15
San Giovanni
1.44
Domagnano
1.45
Juvenes / Dogana
1.64
Fiorentino
1.84
Libertas
1.87
San Marino Academy
2.47
Cailungo
2.57
Faetano
2.63
Pennarossa
3.20
Murata is 1.10 goals better than Fiorentino in terms of goals conceded per game (0.74 vs 1.84).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

MurataMurata

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

FiorentinoFiorentino

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

MurataMurata

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (20)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (30)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Fiorentino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FiorentinoFiorentino

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (18)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (22)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (10)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Cosmos
10.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Penne
7.2

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
La Fiorita
4.5
Cosmos
4.5
Tre Penne
3.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Tre Penne
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MurataMurata

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L20W00D00D00D41W00D10W00D50WH·LA 10/02A·CAI18/02H·TRE21/02A·PEN24/02H·FOL03/03A·JUV09/03H·VIR13/03A·TRE16/03H·COS06/04A·SAN13/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.300.800.071.270.53
vs Stronger (12)0.330.420.000.170.670.67
vs Similar (18)1.500.221.330.001.670.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FiorentinoFiorentino

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D01L00D02L21W01L20W11D02LH·VIR10/02A·JUV18/02H·SAN21/02A·SAN24/02H·TRE02/03H·LIB09/03A·LA 13/03H·DOM17/03A·FOL06/04H·FAE14/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.971.070.930.401.00
vs Stronger (10)0.501.800.601.400.402.20
vs Similar (14)0.640.791.001.000.290.57
vs Weaker (6)1.330.002.000.000.670.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Murata over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MurataMurata

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D02L30W10W01L01L00D10W20WH·LA 10/02A·CAI18/02H·TRE21/02A·PEN24/02H·FOL03/03A·JUV09/03H·VIR13/03A·TRE16/03H·COS06/04A·SAN13/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.470.800.470.670.47
vs Stronger (12)0.330.750.500.670.170.83
vs Similar (18)1.000.281.000.331.000.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FiorentinoFiorentino

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W11D10W02L02L22D01L00D11D11DH·VIR10/02A·JUV18/02H·SAN21/02A·SAN24/02H·TRE02/03H·LIB09/03A·LA 13/03H·DOM17/03A·FOL06/04H·FAE14/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.800.730.800.470.80
vs Stronger (10)0.601.101.201.000.001.20
vs Similar (14)0.640.570.570.570.710.57
vs Weaker (6)0.500.830.331.000.670.67
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Murata over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Murata and Fiorentino have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Murata and Fiorentino have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Murata and Fiorentino have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Murata and Fiorentino have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
MUR wins
0
Draws
2
FIO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Murata vs Fiorentino · H/A from MUR
DateH/AGameScore
13/01/24AFiorentino Vs MUR2-1
11/04/23HMUR Vs Fiorentino2-1
18/12/22AFiorentino Vs MUR1-0

MurataMurata

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/24ASan Marino Academy Vs MUR0-7
06/04/24HMUR Vs Cosmos1-0
16/03/24ATre Fiori Vs MUR0-1
13/03/24HMUR Vs Virtus0-1
09/03/24AJuvenes / Dogana Vs MUR2-4
03/03/24HMUR Vs Folgore1-0
24/02/24APennarossa Vs MUR0-3
21/02/24HMUR Vs Tre Penne0-2
18/02/24ACailungo Vs MUR1-3
10/02/24HMUR Vs La Fiorita1-2

FiorentinoFiorentino

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/24HFIO Vs Faetano1-3
06/04/24AFolgore Vs FIO2-2
17/03/24HFIO Vs Domagnano2-0
13/03/24ALa Fiorita Vs FIO2-0
09/03/24HFIO Vs Libertas4-3
02/03/24HFIO Vs Tre Penne0-4
24/02/24ASan Marino Academy Vs FIO2-0
21/02/24HFIO Vs San Giovanni1-1
18/02/24AJuvenes / Dogana Vs FIO1-1
10/02/24HFIO Vs Virtus3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Murata
Murata
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.60
HomeLLWLW1.64
AwayWWWWW1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%52%48%
AVG goals2.922.803.04
Over 1.5 %70%68%72%
Over 2.5 %56%56%56%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.701.761.64
Conceded1.221.041.40
BTTS42%44%40%
Clean Sheet36%36%36%
Corners---
Cards---
Fiorentino
Fiorentino
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDL1.14
HomeDLWWL1.29
AwayLDLLD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%38%23%
AVG goals3.163.462.88
Over 1.5 %80%79%81%
Over 2.5 %58%67%50%
Over 3.5 %42%50%35%
Scored1.341.621.08
Conceded1.821.831.81
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet20%21%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1La FioritaLa Fiorita3587
80%
2.5
7621+55
2.8
74%
57%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.20.6
-
2VirtusVirtus3079
87%
2.6
6120+41
2.7
70%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.7
-
3Tre PenneTre Penne3569
60%
2.0
8336+47
3.4
89%
69%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.41.0
-
4MurataMurata3567
60%
1.9
6226+36
2.5
63%
49%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.7
-
5CosmosCosmos3565
54%
1.9
8333+50
3.3
77%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.40.9
-
6Tre FioriTre Fiori3258
53%
1.8
5732+25
2.8
72%
62%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.81.0
-
7Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana3351
48%
1.5
5154-3
3.2
76%
70%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.6
-
8San GiovanniSan Giovanni3248
47%
1.5
5746+11
3.2
88%
72%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
9FolgoreFolgore3343
36%
1.3
4638+8
2.5
70%
42%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.2
-
10FiorentinoFiorentino3138
35%
1.2
4057-17
3.1
81%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
11DomagnanoDomagnano3135
29%
1.1
3345-12
2.5
68%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.5
-
12FaetanoFaetano3026
27%
0.9
4479-35
4.1
90%
77%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.6
-
13LibertasLibertas3023
20%
0.8
3256-24
2.9
80%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
14San Marino AcademySan Marino Academy3022
20%
0.7
3274-42
3.5
93%
73%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.5
-
15CailungoCailungo3014
13%
0.5
1577-62
3.1
80%
63%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
16PennarossaPennarossa308
7%
0.3
1896-78
3.8
83%
73%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.2
-
San-Marino: Campionato 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →

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