PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Murata vs Juvenes / Dogana Result & Analysis

Date: 02/02/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 1-0
Murata
Murata
Vs
46%
28%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Juvenes / Dogana
Juvenes / Dogana
San-Marino: Campionato
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Murata win✓ Hit
46.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana win✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

MurataMurata

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L41W01L11D24L01L03L40W20W00DA·FOL08/11H·SAN24/11A·FIO01/12H·SAN07/12H·TRE15/12A·FAE21/12H·LA 11/01A·PEN19/01H·COS22/01A·DOM26/01
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.901.501.191.290.57
vs Stronger (17)0.821.060.801.300.860.71
vs Similar (13)2.150.692.671.001.710.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L20W20W02L13L13L12L00D10W02LA·LA 27/11H·CAI30/11A·PEN08/12H·LA 11/12H·COS15/12A·LA 21/12H·TRE11/01H·FIO18/01A·LIB21/01H·VIR25/01
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.201.191.250.711.14
vs Stronger (10)0.702.101.202.200.202.00
vs Similar (16)1.060.881.251.000.880.75
vs Weaker (4)1.250.251.000.332.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.7%
Under 1.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.5%
Under 2.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.7%
Under 3.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0 ✓
10.0%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
8.5%
2-0
8.5%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
5.0%
Murata goals ↓
Juvenes / Dogana goals →
01234
08.5%6.7%4.3%1.6%0.4%
110.0%13%6.6%2.4%0.7%
28.5%9.3%5.0%1.8%0.5%
34.3%4.7%2.6%0.9%0.3%
41.7%1.8%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Murata goals (down), columns = Juvenes / Dogana goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Virtus
2.57
La Fiorita
2.40
Tre Fiori
1.89
Folgore
1.69
Cosmos
1.69
Tre Penne
1.56
San Giovanni
1.54
Fiorentino
1.39
Murata
1.26
Faetano
1.03
Juvenes / Dogana
1.00
Domagnano
0.97
Libertas
0.87
Cailungo
0.77
Pennarossa
0.57
San Marino Academy
0.53
Murata is 0.26 points better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.00).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
La Fiorita
2.26
Virtus
2.20
Tre Fiori
1.97
Cosmos
1.91
San Giovanni
1.83
Tre Penne
1.53
Folgore
1.31
Cailungo
1.17
Murata
1.06
Fiorentino
1.06
Faetano
1.03
San Marino Academy
1.00
Domagnano
0.97
Libertas
0.97
Pennarossa
0.87
Juvenes / Dogana
0.81
Murata is 0.26 goals better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 0.81).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.57
Virtus
0.60
Tre Fiori
0.91
Folgore
1.03
Tre Penne
1.09
Murata
1.10
Cosmos
1.11
Juvenes / Dogana
1.16
Fiorentino
1.21
San Giovanni
1.29
Domagnano
1.47
Faetano
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cailungo
2.20
San Marino Academy
2.27
Pennarossa
2.53
Murata is 0.06 goals better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.10 vs 1.16).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

MurataMurata

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

MurataMurata

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (25)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (25)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (17)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (25)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (8)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Cosmos
10.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Penne
7.2

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
La Fiorita
4.5
Cosmos
4.5
Tre Penne
3.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Tre Penne
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MurataMurata

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L21W00D11D10W00D01L20W00D00DA·FOL08/11H·SAN24/11A·FIO01/12H·SAN07/12H·TRE15/12A·FAE21/12H·LA 11/01A·PEN19/01H·COS22/01A·DOM26/01
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.370.690.560.790.14
vs Stronger (17)0.410.410.300.500.570.29
vs Similar (13)1.150.311.330.671.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D02L02L10W02L00D00D00DA·LA 27/11H·CAI30/11A·PEN08/12H·LA 11/12H·COS15/12A·LA 21/12H·TRE11/01H·FIO18/01A·LIB21/01H·VIR25/01
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.600.380.690.360.50
vs Stronger (10)0.201.100.201.400.200.80
vs Similar (16)0.440.440.380.500.500.38
vs Weaker (4)0.500.000.670.000.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Murata over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MurataMurata

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D20W01L00D14L01L02L20W20W00DA·FOL08/11H·SAN24/11A·FIO01/12H·SAN07/12H·TRE15/12A·FAE21/12H·LA 11/01A·PEN19/01H·COS22/01A·DOM26/01
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.530.810.620.500.43
vs Stronger (17)0.410.650.500.800.290.43
vs Similar (13)1.000.381.330.330.710.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L10W20W00D11D03L10W00D10W02LA·LA 27/11H·CAI30/11A·PEN08/12H·LA 11/12H·COS15/12A·LA 21/12H·TRE11/01H·FIO18/01A·LIB21/01H·VIR25/01
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.600.810.560.360.64
vs Stronger (10)0.501.001.000.800.001.20
vs Similar (16)0.620.440.880.500.380.38
vs Weaker (4)0.750.250.330.332.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Murata over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.7%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.573.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Murata and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Murata and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Murata and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Murata and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
4
MUR wins
1
Draws
0
J/D wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Murata vs Juvenes / Dogana · H/A from MUR
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/24AJuvenes / Dogana Vs MUR0-1
09/03/24AJuvenes / Dogana Vs MUR2-4
25/11/23HMUR Vs Juvenes / Dogana4-1
11/02/23HMUR Vs Juvenes / Dogana2-2
30/09/22AJuvenes / Dogana Vs MUR0-2

MurataMurata

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/01/25ADomagnano Vs MUR0-0
22/01/25HMUR Vs Cosmos2-0
19/01/25APennarossa Vs MUR0-4
11/01/25HMUR Vs La Fiorita0-3
21/12/24AFaetano Vs MUR1-0
15/12/24HMUR Vs Tre Penne2-4
07/12/24HMUR Vs San Giovanni1-1
01/12/24AFiorentino Vs MUR1-0
24/11/24HMUR Vs San Marino Academy4-1
08/11/24AFolgore Vs MUR1-0

Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/01/25HJ/D Vs Virtus0-2
21/01/25ALibertas Vs J/D0-1
18/01/25HJ/D Vs Fiorentino0-0
11/01/25HJ/D Vs Tre Penne1-2
21/12/24ALa Fiorita Vs J/D3-1
15/12/24HJ/D Vs Cosmos1-3
11/12/24HJ/D Vs La Fiorita0-2
08/12/24APennarossa Vs J/D0-2
30/11/24HJ/D Vs Cailungo2-0
27/11/24ALa Fiorita Vs J/D2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Murata
Murata
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.60
HomeWDLLW1.69
AwayLLLWD1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%50%46%
AVG goals2.382.542.21
Over 1.5 %60%69%50%
Over 2.5 %44%46%42%
Over 3.5 %20%19%21%
Scored1.481.581.38
Conceded0.900.960.83
BTTS30%35%25%
Clean Sheet44%42%46%
Corners---
Cards---
Juvenes / Dogana
Juvenes / Dogana
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWL1.26
HomeLLLDL1.36
AwayLLWLW1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%40%36%
AVG goals2.622.722.52
Over 1.5 %66%68%64%
Over 2.5 %48%48%48%
Over 3.5 %30%36%24%
Scored1.141.320.96
Conceded1.481.401.56
BTTS44%52%36%
Clean Sheet24%20%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1La FioritaLa Fiorita3584
71%
2.4
7920+59
2.8
86%
60%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.30.6
-
2VirtusVirtus3077
80%
2.6
6618+48
2.8
87%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.20.6
-
3Tre FioriTre Fiori3566
57%
1.9
6932+37
2.9
83%
57%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1012.00.9
-
4CosmosCosmos3559
46%
1.7
6739+28
3.0
83%
60%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.1
-
5San GiovanniSan Giovanni3554
40%
1.5
6445+19
3.1
91%
57%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
-
6FolgoreFolgore3254
47%
1.7
4233+9
2.3
72%
38%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
-
7Tre PenneTre Penne3250
38%
1.6
4935+14
2.6
81%
41%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.1
-
8FiorentinoFiorentino3346
39%
1.4
3540-5
2.3
70%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
9MurataMurata3139
35%
1.3
3334-1
2.2
52%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.1
-
10FaetanoFaetano3334
30%
1.0
3466-32
3.0
79%
52%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana3131
26%
1.0
2536-11
2.0
52%
32%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.2
-
12DomagnanoDomagnano3029
20%
1.0
2944-15
2.4
70%
50%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.5
-
13LibertasLibertas3026
20%
0.9
2960-31
3.0
77%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
14CailungoCailungo3023
20%
0.8
3566-31
3.4
80%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
15PennarossaPennarossa3017
10%
0.6
2676-50
3.4
87%
73%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.5
-
16San Marino AcademySan Marino Academy3016
13%
0.5
3068-38
3.3
87%
70%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.3
-
San-Marino: Campionato 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →

← all matches